As Sudan’s civil war rages into a second year, its spiraling violence, fractured security landscape, and expanding humanitarian disaster have drawn growing concern from global powers and neighboring states. For Israel, the collapse of order in Sudan presents both a security threat and a diplomatic setback amid a broader contest against Iranian-backed terror networks throughout the Middle East and Africa.
Sudan’s Strategic Location and Tumultuous Past
Situated at the crossroads of North Africa and the Middle East, Sudan’s geographic importance is underscored by its borders with Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and proximity to the Red Sea. Historically, Sudan served as a sanctuary for terrorist groups and forged operational links with the Iranian regime, posing risks to regional security. The longtime rule of Omar al-Bashir enabled Sudan to become a critical artery for Iranian weapons smuggling to Hamas in Gaza, as evidenced by several Israeli airstrikes targeting arms convoys in Sudan over the past decade.
The 2019 ouster of Bashir initially opened the door to political transition and normalization with Western states. In October 2020, Sudan took the historic step of joining the Abraham Accords, agreeing to establish relations with Israel—an important development in regional realignment against Iranian influence. However, those hopes have largely unraveled amid persistent civil strife.
Civil War and the Rise of Militant Factions
Sudan descended into chaos in April 2023 as tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, erupted into open warfare. The capital, Khartoum, and major population centers quickly became battlegrounds, displacing millions and triggering a severe humanitarian crisis. Relief agencies now estimate over 8 million civilians have fled their homes, and famine, disease, and indiscriminate violence plague the country’s war zones.
Security analysts warn that Sudan’s civil war has created a permissive environment for international terror networks—most notably the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—to entrench, renew arms trafficking, and facilitate cross-border attacks. The absence of a functioning government has enabled groups aligned with Iran to exploit the power vacuum, reestablish smuggling corridors, and funnel advanced weaponry to proxies, including Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
Red Sea Corridor: A New Frontline
Control of the Red Sea is a growing focus of Israeli and Western security policy. Instability in Sudan threatens the safety of global shipping lanes, raises the specter of piracy, and strengthens the hand of Iranian-backed forces intent on targeting Israel and Western interests. The Houthi terror campaign against maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, enabled in part by regional disorder, highlights the real risks of unchecked Iranian influence in Sudan.
Diplomatic Stalemate and the Fate of Normalization
The outbreak of full-scale civil war has suspended progress on Israel-Sudan normalization. Once viewed as a key achievement of the Abraham Accords, the relationship is now frozen, with diplomatic and intelligence channels limited to humanitarian coordination and indirect contacts. Israeli authorities remain committed to providing humanitarian aid where possible, working through global partnerships to support Sudan’s displaced.
The Regional View: Israel’s Broader Security Challenge
Sudan’s descent into lawlessness is a microcosm of the regional strategy deployed by Iran and its proxies, who seek to encircle Israel through a network of non-state actors, arms pipelines, and asymmetric warfare. The October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas in southern Israel, described by Israeli and Western officials as the worst antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust, reaffirms the grave dangers posed by Iranian-supported entities. Israeli defense planners—under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir—have emphasized the need for rigorous monitoring, preventive action, and moral clarity in confronting these threats.
Humanitarian Disaster Amid International Inaction
While the United Nations and humanitarian agencies appeal for aid relief, international action remains constrained by local violence and political division. The unchecked movement of arms and militants across Sudanese territory further complicates efforts to restore stability. Israel has joined calls for the protection of civilians and return to political dialogue but stresses that any long-term solution must also block the logistical and operational networks that empower Iranian-aligned terror organizations.
Future Prospects and Strategic Imperatives
Sudan’s crisis underscores the vital need for international cooperation to prevent state collapse from further fueling extremism and destabilization. For Israel and its regional partners, containing chaos in Sudan is integral to safeguarding Red Sea navigation, restoring diplomatic engagement, and countering Iran’s ambitions. Success would mark a step toward securing the region against terror; failure risks opening a new theater of conflict astride Africa and the Middle East.
The fate of Sudan remains uncertain, but its relevance to the wider war against Iranian-backed terror is increasingly apparent. Israel, in concert with moderate Arab states and global allies, continues to watch developments with urgency, prepared to defend its interests and support any reemergence of responsible governance committed to peace and security.
