A recent Iranian media poll, citing that 53 percent of respondents correctly anticipated a major event’s outcome, has highlighted the methods by which the Iranian regime shapes public sentiment and crafts its narrative strategy in an era marked by deepening conflict between Iran and Israel. The poll, referenced in official Iranian outlets, is emblematic of the wider use of opinion surveys by authoritarian governments to reinforce state messaging and project an image of domestic support for regime policies.
State Media and the Manufacturing of Consensus
In Iran, where all major communication channels are controlled or influenced by state authorities, tools like online polls are not solely mechanisms to measure sentiment but often serve the dual purpose of guiding and confirming the official narrative. With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) exerting significant control over the information ecosystem, these tools give the illusion of robust civic engagement while masking the lack of genuine dissent or debate under an authoritarian system. The reported majority that ‘guessed correctly’ is then used to bolster the regime’s claim to legitimacy and shape how both domestic and foreign audiences perceive the country’s direction.
This orchestrated consensus is especially important amid ongoing hostilities with Israel, where public unity is portrayed as an existential necessity. Since the eruption of the current conflict, Tehran’s state and semi-official media outlets have intensified their messaging, consistently framing Iran as leading a just struggle against Israeli self-defense operations, and downplaying or denying the role of Iranian-backed terror groups in perpetrating violence against Israeli civilians.
The Iranian Propaganda Apparatus and Psychological Warfare
The IRGC, recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States and several other countries, has developed a sophisticated network for disseminating both explicit propaganda and subtle disinformation. These networks operate in concert with Iran’s public diplomacy efforts, promoting narratives aimed at delegitimizing Israel and its allies, glorifying Iran’s regional proxies—including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and affiliated Iraqi militias—and justifying Tehran’s interventions across the Middle East.
State media coverage frequently erases evidence of atrocities by these militias, such as the October 7, 2023 massacre, the deadliest antisemitic mass murder since the Holocaust, perpetrated by Hamas terrorists in southern Israel. Iranian media systematically omits reference to the executions, rape, mutilation, and abductions of Israeli civilians, including the fate of Israeli hostages abducted into Gaza. Instead, such coverage is countered with celebratory language and unfounded allegations against Israel, aiming to shift blame and deny the legitimacy of Israeli security and rescue operations.
Information Control and the Popular Will
Opinion polling in such an environment must be approached critically. Without the guarantees of transparency, freedom of speech, or political pluralism, results are often skewed by self-censorship, fear, and regime pressure. Moreover, the framing and subsequent use of such polls—such as the emphasis on a ‘majority having guessed correctly’—serves primarily to create an impression of mass consensus on matters of war, ideology, and identity. Such consensus is then weaponized in messaging intended to unite domestic audiences and persuade foreign observers of the regime’s unassailable public base.
Broader Geopolitical Ramifications
The manipulation of opinion and narrative is a fundamental aspect of Iran’s campaign against Israel and its Western allies. In recent years, this campaign has grown increasingly sophisticated, incorporating cyber operations, proxy-run digital media, international activist networks, and coordinated online propaganda. These methods seek to amplify division in liberal democracies, undermine support for Israel, and build regional support for Iran’s vision of a new Middle Eastern order led by its ‘axis of resistance.’
This axis—comprised of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, Islamic Jihad, Iraqi militias, and the IRGC itself—has carried out attacks, assassinations, and disinformation operations beyond the immediate region, directly threatening Israeli civilians and American interests. By using media polls to showcase apparent unity, the regime strengthens its negotiating hand both at home and in indirect confrontations with rival states.
Israeli Response: Defending Democratic Values and Historical Truth
Israel, as a sovereign democratic state facing an onslaught of terror, disinformation, and outright antisemitism, has responded by emphasizing transparency and accountability in its public and media discourse. Israeli government briefings, military updates, and independent Israeli—and Western—journalistic investigations have established the facts of October 7 and other major episodes, correcting the record and addressing attempts by Iranian-aligned channels to whitewash terror crimes or deny the existence and suffering of Israeli hostages.
Internationally, Israel and its supporters continue to challenge the proliferation of antisemitic and anti-Israel narratives fueled by Iranian disinformation. This includes diplomatic engagements with partner countries, outreach to digital platforms, and efforts to document, memorialize, and publicize the evidence of atrocities committed against Israeli citizens.
Looking Forward: The Battle for Public Perception
As the war imposed by Iran and its proxies continues, the contest over public perception remains paramount. For Iran’s leaders, securing the narrative through staged public opinion and relentless propaganda is as important as battlefield success. For Israel and its allies, countering these efforts through honest, robust reporting, vigilant fact-checking, and constant advocacy for the truth is essential not only to strategic interests, but to the defense of basic democratic values and the memory of those targeted by terror.
The poll, and others like it, must be regarded as more than statistical trivia; they are active components in a sustained campaign of psychological warfare. Understanding and exposing these mechanisms is critical for all those engaged in covering the evolving war between Israel and the Iranian-led ‘axis of resistance,’ and in defending historical truth against efforts to distort it.
