A high-level visit last Thursday by Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister to Iran marks a notable milestone in the volatile landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics. This meeting underscores a strategic realignment between two former adversaries and raises crucial questions about its regional impacts, particularly against the backdrop of Israel’s ongoing defensive campaign against Iranian-backed terror networks and the ever-present threat posed by the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ This report examines the historical context, the potential repercussions for Israel, and broader implications for regional security and diplomacy.
Historical Overview: Iran-Saudi Rivalry
Iran and Saudi Arabia, representing the major Shi’a and Sunni blocs respectively, have a fraught history of rivalry dating back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Tehran positioned itself as the intellectual and operational center of an anti-Western and anti-Israel axis, actively supporting terror proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, maintained ties with the West and sought to blunt Iranian influence across the region. Proxy conflicts erupted throughout Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, deepening sectarian, ideological, and strategic divides.
Khamenei’s Doctrine and Its Regional Ramifications
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains uncompromising, branding the West and Israel as implacable enemies. Khamenei’s regime funds, arms, and directs terror groups, seeking to project Iran’s power across the Middle East. The October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas terrorists—marked as the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust—exposed the extent of Iranian orchestration. Iranian-backed actors celebrated the atrocities, while Saudi Arabia’s official reaction reflected a delicate balancing act: condemnation of civilian deaths, with careful avoidance of direct accusations against Tehran’s proxies. This ambiguity signals an adaptive Saudi strategy as it weighs regional risks and opportunities.
Recent Thaw: From Secret Dialogues to High-Level Visits
Despite decades of hostility, recent years have seen a cautious thaw. Diplomatic talks began quietly, first mediated by Iraq, then brought to fruition by China, which brokered the March 2023 agreement to restore ties after a seven-year rupture. Last week’s visit by the Saudi defense minister in Tehran consolidates this rapprochement. Both sides are motivated by mutual concerns: Iran seeks relief from growing isolation and the effects of Western sanctions, while Saudi Arabia wants to reduce the risk of direct attacks and curb Yemeni Houthi aggression.
This shift aligns with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to reposition Saudi Arabia globally—accelerating economic reforms, seeking technological growth, and reconsidering security partnerships. Mindful of Iran’s regional ambitions, Riyadh remains cautious, anxious to hedge its bets with both Iran and Western partners, notably the United States.
Regional Implications: Risks and Opportunities for Israel
The evolving Iranian-Saudi relationship presents Israel with both peril and promise. On one hand, diplomatic engagement could ease proxy attacks and reduce the frequency of missile launches into Saudi and Israeli territory. On the other hand, closer ties could embolden Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance,’ undermining Israel’s efforts to contain its adversaries and complicate prospects for direct peace with Saudi Arabia. Tehran continues to deliver advanced weapons and funds to its proxies, as reflected in stepped-up attacks from Hezbollah and the Houthis, while the region watches for Riyadh’s next moves.
Israel’s national security—a product of hard-earned experience with existential threats—remains anchored in self-defense. The October 7 massacre highlighted the Iranian regime’s ongoing project of proxy war, even as diplomatic gestures multiply in the Gulf. Israel must continue strengthening alliances forged under the Abraham Accords and maintain military readiness to deter and respond to threats emanating from the region.
The Impact of External Mediators: China’s Assertive Role
The recent rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia was notably brokered not by the United States, but by China—a signal that global power dynamics are shifting. Gulf states, wary of American retrenchment and seeking leverage with competing powers, are embracing multi-vector diplomacy. For Israel, this means adjusting to a more competitive international environment while emphasizing the central moral and legal legitimacy of its campaign of self-defense.
Ongoing Risks: Ideology vs. Pragmatism
Despite diplomatic advances, Khamenei’s ideology remains rigid. His commitment to supporting anti-Israel proxies and exporting the Iranian revolution ensures that the fundamental drivers of conflict persist. For ordinary Iranians, the costs of this regional adventurism are steep, even as Tehran seeks the legitimacy and economic benefits that renewed diplomatic openings might offer.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pursues reform and modernization, but the security risks posed by Iran’s strategy to destabilize neighbors remain acute. The recent joint statements by Saudi and Iran emphasized sovereignty and non-interference, but left the most contentious security issues unresolved.
Conclusion: Navigating an Uncertain Landscape
Saudi Arabia’s engagement with Iran signals the possibility of reduced direct tension, but does little to mitigate the overarching threat that Iran’s proxies pose to Israeli security and regional stability. The core reality remains: Israel faces an array of Iranian-backed networks committed to its destruction, with Khamenei’s regime at the center. Last week’s visit should be seen as an incremental change in a dangerous status quo, not a transformation.
For Israel, the task ahead is clear: maintain vigilance, invest in robust defense and intelligence, and build upon regional alliances that have already reshaped the Middle East security architecture. Transparency, deterrence, and moral clarity remain its most effective tools in the pursuit of genuine peace and security for all nations threatened by Iranian-backed terror.
