Iran’s ruling regime has embarked on a high-profile campaign to project power, both to its internal audience and to external adversaries, particularly Israel. This dual messaging comes amid persistent domestic unrest and mounting pressure from a hostile regional environment, in which Iran’s military posture and proxy networks remain central to Tehran’s strategy of deterrence and influence.
Domestic Messaging: Projecting Strength Amid Unrest
The death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 and the resulting waves of nationwide protest revealed profound fissures within Iranian society. Discontent over political repression, economic hardship, and a desire for greater social freedoms has become a fixture of life in the Islamic Republic. In response, government officials and state media orchestrate routine shows of military force and warnings to external foes, aiming to assure Iranians that the regime remains strong and secure.
In recent months, Iranian authorities have broadcast parades showcasing ballistic missiles, anti-aircraft systems, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), asserting that external threats—chiefly from Israel and the United States—demand unity and vigilance. These displays are calculated to reinforce the regime’s narrative: that Iran is a fortress besieged by conspiracies, but still capable of defending its sovereignty.
External Messaging: Threats to Israel and Regional Posturing
Simultaneously, Iran has sharpened its rhetoric towards Israel, warning of severe retaliation if Iranian interests are challenged. In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 massacre—the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust, perpetrated by Iran-backed Hamas terrorists—Iran’s leaders have repeatedly threatened that Israeli defensive actions, whether in Gaza, Syria, or elsewhere, will trigger a regional response.
The IRGC and affiliated militia groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shi’ite armed groups in Syria and Iraq, have escalated operations as part of what Tehran brands the ‘axis of resistance.’ This proxy network is designed to encircle Israel and exert pressure on its defenses, with rocket launches, drone attacks, and the taking of hostages serving as both tactical and psychological warfare.
Iran’s Proxy Strategy: Realities and Risks
While Iranian officials emphasize their readiness for confrontation, the regime practices proxy warfare to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the United States. The memory of the devastating Iran-Iraq war and the current fragility of Iran’s economy drive Tehran’s preference for indirect engagement. Israel, in response, has intensified defensive preparations, conducted operations against Iranian targets, and increased cooperation with strategic partners—including states that have normalized relations with Jerusalem under the Abraham Accords.
Despite the regime’s insistence on resilience, cracks are visible. Economic sanctions have devastated Iran’s economy, fueling inflation and unemployment. The leadership’s strategy of channeling resources to foreign militias is increasingly unpopular among Iranians eager for internal reform and external stability. Nevertheless, Tehran continues to arm and finance multiple terror organizations, accepting regional instability as a cost for projecting power and maintaining deterrence.
Information Warfare and the Struggle for Legitimacy
Iran’s approach also relies heavily on propaganda. State media, messaging platforms, and government spokespeople play up military achievements and threats against external enemies to foster a sense of unity, distract from domestic grievances, and bolster legitimacy. Meanwhile, efforts to suppress dissent, censor information, and intimidate opposition figures persist.
Most Iranians, however, remain skeptical of the regime’s narrative. Social media, despite censorship, reveals a public disillusioned with slogans of resistance and weary of perpetual conflict. For many, the costs of the regime’s foreign policy and internal repression far outweigh its perceived victories.
Regional and International Impact
The fallout from Iran’s posture reverberates throughout the Middle East. The war in Gaza, supported by Iran and its regional proxies, is widely seen as one front in a broader strategy directed against Israel. By arming and directing non-state actors, Iran seeks to exhaust Israeli resources, sow chaos, and undermine emerging alliances between Israel and Sunni Arab states. Western governments, while seeking to contain the conflict, have repeatedly condemned Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and destabilizing activities.
Conclusion: The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
Iran’s leaders assert that the Islamic Republic is neither weak nor vulnerable, presenting the state as a bulwark against Israeli and American influence. However, beneath this rhetoric lies a regime that is fundamentally defensive—concerned as much with internal dissent as with external adversaries. Its willingness to risk stability and prosperity to sustain its campaign of regional terror highlights both the magnitude of the threat it poses and the insecurities that drive its most provocative actions.
Israel, forced to contend with a war imposed by Iran and its proxies, maintains that self-defense is not a matter of choice but of survival. The atrocities of October 7, the ongoing hostage crisis, and the persistent threat posed by Iranian-backed terror groups reinforce the necessity for continued vigilance and readiness.
As Iran’s regime strives to convince its people and the world that it retains both might and legitimacy, the realities of repression, isolation, and miscalculation continue to define life inside the Islamic Republic and to shape the war that it has chosen to wage beyond its borders.
