Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian conducted a high-profile visit to Azerbaijan this week, as regional dynamics shift in the face of mounting Iranian insecurity and Israel’s expanding influence in the South Caucasus. The trip, officially described by Tehran as a step towards broader scientific, economic, cultural, and security cooperation, comes amid escalating tensions with America, stalled nuclear negotiations, and recent sabotage incidents inside Iran.
Upon returning to Tehran after signing several agreements with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, Pezeshkian reaffirmed the countries’ mutual interests. Iranian state media framed the visit as a milestone in improving trust and opening new opportunities for bilateral cooperation. However, observers in Jerusalem, Washington, and Baku view the mission through a more complex lens: as reactive diplomacy driven by internal and external pressures on the Iranian regime.
Israeli-Azerbaijani Relations and Strategic Implications
Israel has steadily deepened its relationship with Azerbaijan, forging military, economic, and intelligence ties that increasingly concern Tehran. The partnership is built on shared security interests: Israel supplies Baku with advanced defense technology—including drones and anti-missile systems—and benefits from Azerbaijan’s energy exports. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled to travel to Baku within the week, Israel’s commitment to bolstering regional partners against Iranian aggression is unmistakable.
This strategic axis has profound implications for Iranian national security. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other branches of Iran’s security apparatus have repeatedly warned against any Israeli-Azerbaijani military collaboration that could threaten Iranian territory. For Israel, the alliance forms part of a wider strategy to contain the Iranian “axis of resistance”—comprised of Hamas terrorists in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and affiliated militias throughout the region.
Key Regional Context: Iranian Vulnerabilities and US-Iran Deadlock
The backdrop to these developments is a period of rising vulnerability for the Iranian regime. US-Iranian negotiations over nuclear proliferation and sanctions relief have hit an impasse, as Washington insists on concrete limits to Tehran’s nuclear program and rollback of regional proxy warfare. Simultaneously, internal unrest, economic challenges, and a spate of industrial accidents—most recently an explosion at Rajaee Port—have spotlighted the regime’s fragility. These incidents have fueled speculation among regional analysts about covert sabotage and deepening unrest.
Iran’s leadership, in response, pursues short-term diplomatic initiatives to shore up support. Pezeshkian’s sudden trip to Baku is widely viewed as tactical, occurring just as Jerusalem prepares high-level diplomatic engagement. Israeli sources stress that Iran’s outreach is aimed at disrupting growing regional alignment against its destabilizing influence.
Azerbaijan’s Calculated Neutrality
Despite geographic and cultural proximity to Iran, Azerbaijan has charted a pragmatic foreign policy, welcoming Israeli investment and defense collaboration while cautious not to provoke open hostilities with Tehran. President Aliyev’s administration has long leveraged Azerbaijan’s geostrategic location to maximize its own national interests, seeking economic development, energy partnerships, and enhanced state security.
Aliyev must navigate Baku’s delicate balancing act. Israel’s military assistance strengthens Azerbaijan’s strategic posture, particularly given historic tensions with Armenia, yet any significant escalation with Iran could threaten regional stability. Intelligence officials remain alert to Iranian threats of retaliation against any perceived Israeli military deployments or intelligence operations launched from Azerbaijani territory.
Iran’s Strategy and the Broader ‘Axis of Resistance’
Iran has structured its regional strategy around asymmetric warfare and proxy militancy, coordinating terror networks dedicated to attacking Israeli civilians and destabilizing partner governments across the Middle East. The October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre—marked by mass executions, sexual violence, mutilations, and the abduction of innocent hostages—underscored the brutality and reach of this network, highlighting the existential threat posed to Israel and its partners.
Israeli defense doctrine is predicated on preemption and deterrence. Recent years have seen Jerusalem expanding partnerships with non-Arab states—most notably the Abraham Accords and engagement with the Gulf—and boosting preventative operations against Iranian-backed forces across multiple theaters, including Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. The support network for these operations now stretches northward into the Caucasus, with Azerbaijan emerging as a pivotal partner.
Future Prospects and Regional Stability
Tehran’s efforts to expand diplomatic and economic ties with regional neighbors are seen by analysts as attempts to counter growing isolation and instability. Yet, such outreach is complicated by deep-seated mistrust and the relentless advance of what Iran perceives as an Israeli-led containment strategy. The Israeli government, for its part, continues to prioritize robust alliances, intelligence cooperation, and swift action to neutralize threats posed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies.
As Netanyahu prepares for his upcoming visit to Baku, the stakes could hardly be higher: Israel views its engagement with Azerbaijan not only as a means of securing vital strategic interests, but as a central pillar in a broader campaign to deny Iran operational opportunities against the Jewish state. For Azerbaijani leaders, maintaining flexibility amid regional polarization will remain critical.
The months ahead may see further Iranian diplomatic outreach, increased intelligence competition, and renewed focus on countering terror networks. Ultimately, the context for Pezeshkian’s Baku visit reveals the wider truth: beneath the veneer of go-slow diplomatic normalization, a contest for regional influence is intensifying, pitting Israel and its allies against a determined adversary seeking to project power, sow chaos, and undermine security across the Middle East and beyond.
