TEL AVIV – As preparations intensify for former U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated visit to Gulf states, reports from Iranian sources reveal a rare admission of vulnerability from the regime in Tehran. Behind closed doors, senior Iranian officials are reportedly expressing concern over their inability to predict or counter Trump’s unconventional political style and hardline positions—a challenge amplified by the volatile security landscape across the Middle East.
This anxiety in Iran surfaces at a critical point. The region is already gripped by rising hostilities linked to the Iranian-backed ‘axis of resistance,’ including groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Israel, supported by its longstanding security partnership with the United States, is contending with one of the most serious multifront threats in its modern history.
Iran: Uncertain Before a Defiant America
Sources familiar with internal Iranian analysis confirm that the regime sees Trump’s return as a unique strategic dilemma. Tehran’s approach has long relied on deciphering predictable U.S. political cycles and exploiting the caution of Western leaders. However, Iranian government insiders warn that Trump’s history of abrupt decisions—evidenced by the 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal and targeted strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials—defies their usual playbook. As one Iranian source put it, officials are unsure “how to eat Trump,” using a common phrase to denote their confusion when facing someone outside their strategic calculus.
Such ambiguity is reinforced by internal Iranian polling, with senior advisers admitting that Trump’s approach is understood by “no one except Trump.” This uncertainty is now permeating strategic circles in Tehran, complicating the regime’s ability to respond coherently to possible shifts in U.S. or allied policies.
The Gulf Visit: Security and Symbolism
Trump’s visit, set against a backdrop of heightened security and regional apprehension, is expected to include consultations with Gulf leaders and Israeli officials. The agenda will likely address Iran’s advancing nuclear program, the proliferation of proxies throughout the region, and the enduring threat to international shipping lanes posed by Iranian-backed Houthi operations in Yemen.
Israeli officials emphasize that this visit underscores a period of growing recognition among U.S. partners of the necessity for coordinated defense and intelligence operations in the face of Iranian escalation. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated in recent briefings that Israel views Iran’s actions as a central instigator of instability and that it will continue to defend its sovereign interests alongside American and regional allies.
Iran’s Multifront Project: A Policy of Destabilization
Iranian strategy across the Middle East is executed through an intricate network of militant organizations, centrally coordinated by the IRGC. These armed groups—such as Hamas terrorists, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—operate as Iran’s outposts, executing attacks on Israel, launching strikes against Gulf infrastructure, and threatening international shipping. Intelligence from recent months points to Tehran’s increasing reliance on these proxies to offset domestic economic pressures and project influence amid global isolation.
The war in Gaza, sparked by the October 7, 2023 massacre perpetrated by Hamas, continues to serve as a catalyst for wider conflict. Israel categorizes this atrocity as the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust. Following the massacre, Israel initiated the Iron Swords War, targeting Hamas’s command structure, weapon stockpiles, and smuggling pipelines—all components of the broader campaign waged by Iranian-backed groups.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Legacy: Regional Ramifications
The Trump administration’s tenure reset expectations for both American support to Israel and the nature of deterrence against Tehran. Israeli security officials recall the 2020 killing of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani as a demonstration of U.S. resolve that reverberated through Iran’s military establishment. Coupled with the brokering of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states, Trump’s pragmatic and unpredictable foreign policy raised the diplomatic and military costs for Iranian adventurism.
Israeli analysis holds that, unlike traditional American administrations, Trump placed greater premium on operational surprise, clear moral distinctions, and the removal of artificial symmetry between sovereign democracies and terrorist organizations. This approach emboldened new security calculations throughout the Gulf and led to substantial investments in missile defense, cyber security, and joint training exercises.
Concerns in Tehran and the Road Ahead
Insiders report that Iran’s leadership—facing mounting civil unrest, economic hardship, and the increasing effectiveness of Israeli and Western military actions—fears another cycle of destabilization if Trump’s policies are revived or expanded. Officials warn that even the possibility of renewed U.S. support for overt or covert actions complicates efforts to maintain unity within the Iranian regime and between it and its external proxies.
Across the region, allies and adversaries alike are recalibrating. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, long the target of Iranian sabotage, have intensified security coordination with Israel and the United States. Emirati and Saudi policymakers highlight the value of the Abraham Accords and hope Trump’s visit will foster deeper collaboration on defense technology and early warning systems.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon and Syria, Iranian-backed militias have amplified hostile rhetoric toward Israel while avoiding direct, sustained escalation that could provoke harsh reprisals. The Houthis, leveraging advanced Iranian weaponry, continue to challenge international shipping but remain wary of triggering a comprehensive Western response.
Israel’s Security Outlook: Facing an Asymmetric Threat
For Israel, the challenge remains existential. The October 7 massacre marked a turning point in Israeli counterterror doctrine and reaffirmed the centrality of ironclad U.S. support. Israeli officials are adamant that hostage recoveries and the dismantling of Hamas’s operational capacity in Gaza are inseparable from the broader imperative to contain and deter Iranian aggression across the region.
Within Israeli defense circles, the prospect of a revived U.S. posture under Trump is regarded as a unique opportunity to reinforce deterrence. Military planners argue that continued ambiguity in Washington’s response only encourages Iranian risk-taking. Conversely, coordinated, high-profile visits and shared operational planning send a message that the IRGC and its proxies cannot ignore.
Regional Policy and the International Community
Trump’s anticipated meetings are likely to renew urgent discussions about Iran’s nuclear program and the regional consequences of a weaponized Islamic Republic. American and Israeli officials agree on the need to maintain a rigorous inspections regime and to respond forcefully to any Iranian moves toward weaponization. U.S. sanctions campaigns, multilateral efforts to interdict weapons smuggling, and the reinforcement of international laws protecting maritime navigation will remain key policy tools.
As the war in Gaza persists and the threat of a wider regional conflagration remains ever-present, Israeli officials express cautious optimism that continued American engagement—grounded in moral clarity and operational decisiveness—can limit Iran’s room for maneuver. Jerusalem insists that lasting security in the Middle East depends not only on military might but also on the recognition that Israel and its allies are defending the rules-based order against actors committed to terror and subversion.
Conclusion: The Stakes of Unpredictability
Trump’s imminent arrival in the Gulf symbolizes more than a personal or political return. For both friends and foes in the Middle East, it represents the unpredictable nature of a region at the crossroads of ideological confrontation and realpolitik. Iran’s failure to anticipate or absorb Trump’s methods lays bare the regime’s broader strategic shortcomings. For Israel, the lesson is unambiguous: preparedness, alliance-building, and an unwavering commitment to self-defense remain the surest guarantees against the ambitions of Tehran and its terror affiliates.
