A comprehensive new survey conducted among Iranian voters reveals that more than 62% believe the latest agreement between the United States and Iran will ultimately fail. The results, published in local media this week, underscore the profound lack of confidence that exists within Iranian society toward diplomatic efforts with Washington, highlighting persistent distrust and regional instability tied to Iran’s ongoing conflicts and foreign policy.
The survey, conducted across diverse Iranian urban and rural populations, was released amid mounting uncertainty regarding the future of U.S.-Iran relations. While specifics of the newest accord have not been officially disclosed, diplomatic sources confirm its focus involves nuclear enrichment restrictions, economic engagement, and curtailing Iran’s regional influence—particularly through Iranian-backed militias and terrorist organizations.
Heightened Regional Instability
Tensions across the Middle East remain high, with Iran continuing its decades-long campaign to expand its influence via proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite factions in Syria and Iraq. Collectively known as the “Axis of Resistance,” these groups are armed and funded by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the United States and its allies designate as a terrorist organization. Their stated objective is to undermine regional stability and challenge Israel’s existence.
The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack against Israel—the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust—brought the Iranian threat into sharp global focus. The assault, marked by atrocities including killings, abductions, and sexual violence against civilians, revealed the operational depth of Iran’s support for such groups. In response, Israel launched extensive self-defense operations, prioritizing the dismantling of Hamas and the deterrence of further Iranian-backed aggression.
Historical Deep-Rooted Mistrust
The current Iranian skepticism is grounded in a history of failed diplomatic initiatives. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) offered hope for sanctions relief, but its partial implementation and subsequent collapse—especially after the Trump administration’s withdrawal in 2018—left a residue of mutual suspicion. Recent efforts to revive a successor accord have struggled to overcome this legacy.
Within Iran, state-controlled narratives frequently blame the United States and Israel for national hardships, while public sentiment, as reflected in the survey, increasingly holds Iranian policy responsible for economic malaise and international isolation. Respondents cited disappointment over unfulfilled promises, enduring sanctions, and the allocation of national resources to foreign militant campaigns rather than domestic priorities.
Ongoing Proxy Warfare and Security Implications
Iran’s regional strategy hinges on a network of militant groups—foremost among them the IRGC-led organizations—engaged in terrorism and asymmetric warfare throughout the Levant and Gulf. These proxies have launched missiles targeting Israel, harassed shipping lanes, and fueled civil wars from Yemen to Lebanon.
The October 7 massacre showed the potential consequences if Iranian power projection goes unchecked, while Israel’s military, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has adopted a policy of active defense to neutralize immediate threats from Iranian-sponsored forces. Israel underscores that no diplomatic deal can substitute for real deterrence and robust security preparedness as long as Iranian-sponsored terrorism persists.
Domestic Dissent and Desire for Reform
Inside Iran, public unrest has increased in recent years, driven by economic hardship, lack of freedoms, and frustration with the regime’s prioritization of regional interventions over national welfare. Anti-government protests, particularly those with slogans rejecting foreign adventures—”No Gaza, No Lebanon, My Life for Iran”—echo the core findings of the latest poll.
These demonstrations have highlighted the rift between the government’s messaging and the aspirations of ordinary Iranians who want access to prosperity, stability, and international engagement. While the Iranian leadership continues to invoke resistance and anti-Western ideology, the population increasingly calls for reform and an end to costly foreign entanglements.
Global Reactions and Implications for Policy
International observers note that public skepticism in Iran presents a major obstacle to any lasting agreement. U.S. and European officials point to the need for concrete and verifiable Iranian compliance, particularly on nuclear activities and support for terrorism, as a foundation for any future normalization.
Meanwhile, Israel and its regional partners have doubled down on missile defense, intelligence sharing, and deterrence measures in anticipation of continued disruptions by Iranian-backed proxies. The Iron Dome and David’s Sling defense systems have been upgraded, while joint drills and diplomatic initiatives with Gulf Arab states signal a growing regional realignment against Iranian threats.
Conclusion
The new Iranian poll underscores the formidable challenge that lies ahead for those seeking to resolve tensions through diplomacy alone. As long as the Islamic Republic continues to support terror across the Middle East and the Iranian public remains jaded by past failures, the prospects for successful, trust-based engagement are slim. For now, Israel and its allies will remain focused on security and deterrence, as the wider region grapples with the enduring consequences of Iranian influence and public discontent at home.
