TEL AVIV — A recent publication in an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has shed light on the regime’s perception of Israel, interpreting any visible discord between Israel and its primary ally, the United States, as a sign of Israeli vulnerability. This perspective, regularly reflected in state propaganda and security narratives, is not just a matter of rhetoric—it is a driving factor behind the IRGC’s willingness to escalate conflicts on multiple regional fronts.
Iranian publications, especially those connected to the IRGC, frequently highlight disputes within the Israeli-American alliance, exploiting them for both internal morale-building and strategic planning. Intelligence assessments from Israeli defense officials confirm that the IRGC uses such moments of diplomatic friction to justify bolder actions: increasing support to regional proxies, ramping up arms shipments, and intensifying anti-Israel incitement and operations. These actions include arming the Houthis in Yemen with advanced missile technology, supporting Hezbollah’s buildup of rockets in Lebanon, and strengthening Hamas and Islamic Jihad capabilities in Gaza.
These proxy groups, comprising what Iran calls its ‘Axis of Resistance,’ operate as the forward elements of the Iranian regime’s campaign to undermine Israel. Tehran’s command-and-control structure ensures rapid adaption to geopolitical developments, with IRGC commanders using media messaging to synchronize military and political pressure campaigns whenever Israeli deterrence is perceived as challenged.
Israeli defense strategy, developed over decades in response to shifting regional dynamics, relies heavily on the deterrent effect of its alliance with the United States. Periodic disagreements are inevitable in any strategic partnership, but Israeli security officials consistently warn that publicized rifts, if amplified, can embolden adversaries. Israeli intelligence indicates that the mere perception of division is sometimes sufficient to trigger escalatory moves, such as increased rocket attacks from Gaza or drone strikes from territory controlled by Iranian proxies.
The pattern has played out repeatedly since the start of the Iron Swords War, which erupted following the October 7th 2023 massacre—the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust—when Hamas terrorists, backed by the IRGC, savagely attacked Israeli civilians with mass executions, systematic sexual abuse, mutilations, and kidnapping of hostages. Israel’s subsequent military response has targeted Hamas and related Iranian-backed networks both in Gaza and beyond, operating on the principle of self-defense against the broader war prosecuted by Iran and its regional clients.
The IRGC’s approach is not limited to physical confrontation. Its propaganda arms systematically seek to sway public opinion and introduce doubt within Israeli society and among Western allies. By promoting the narrative of “Israeli weakness,” particularly during moments of strategic disagreement between Washington and Jerusalem, IRGC-linked outlets attempt to erode Israel’s deterrence and sow discord. Israeli security agencies have documented a surge in such media activity before bursts of violence—frequently accompanied by missile barrages from affiliated groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
Regional implications extend far beyond these occasional media surges. In Yemen, Israeli and Western intelligence have monitored increased Iranian assistance to the Houthis, aimed at strengthening their missile and drone arsenals for potential future escalation. In Syria and Iraq, Iran has expanded the operational reach of Shiite militias, funneling advanced weapons while taking advantage of any perceived lapses in U.S.-Israel cooperation to probe Israeli defenses and advance entrenchment projects near the Golan Heights.
Hezbollah, with direct Iranian sponsorship, boasts the region’s largest non-state missile force. Israeli officials attribute the organization’s audacity in challenging Israeli red lines to periods of Western distraction and diplomatic turbulence. Recent intercepts reveal a deliberate Iranian strategy of coordinated pressure—military feints, cyber operations, and targeted propaganda—whenever political conditions appear favorable.
Israeli intelligence and national security leadership stress the vital importance of internalizing the enemy’s worldview. Historical lapses in understanding adversaries’ intentions—such as the misreading of Hamas’ preparations ahead of October 2023 or underestimating Iranian capabilities in regional arms transfers—have come at a catastrophic cost. The IRGC’s propaganda, while clearly serving internal regime objectives, is also used to justify further escalation among armed proxies, highlighting the danger of ignoring its strategic significance.
Policy experts argue that the defense of Israel and regional stability depend upon a clear, unified response—both within Israel and between Israel and the United States. Strategic resilience, public education, and robust inter-governmental coordination are needed to prevent Iranian attempts to convert moments of alliance friction into military opportunity. Israeli leaders have repeatedly urged vigilance in all arenas: battlefield, information sphere, and diplomatic corridors.
The ongoing war underscores that recognizing and understanding the enemy’s perception of reality is not an abstract exercise; it is a critical component of national security. The consequences of failing to observe and counter Iranian strategies are written in the tragedies of recent Israeli history—a lesson the current generation of security planners is determined not to repeat. In this environment, every Israeli and every ally must remain alert, informed, and united in confronting the threats posed by the IRGC and its network of regional proxies.
