As nuclear negotiations between Iran and Western powers reach a precarious juncture, Iranian leaders have begun extensive military and strategic preparations across multiple Middle Eastern theaters to guard against potential attacks and to enable swift retaliation through their proxy forces. Intelligence and official sources, including Israeli military briefings and Western diplomatic reports, confirm that Iranian authorities are reinforcing defenses amid escalating concerns that Israel or the United States might take direct military action if talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program collapse or are rendered irrelevant. This surge in tension comes against the backdrop of intensifying Iranian support for aligned militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, reflecting a broader strategy designed to project power, deter strikes, and respond asymmetrically to threats against the regime and its interests.
Recent days have seen a marked shift in Iran’s operational posture. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani, have executed plans to upgrade air defense systems and reinforce military installations identified as prospective targets. Official statements from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and military assessments by Western states retroactively confirm the discrepancy between Tehran’s continuing public endorsement of nuclear talks and the regime’s simultaneous mobilization of both regular and irregular forces. The IDF, in particular, has stated that this gap points to a deeply embedded culture of strategic deception within the Iranian security apparatus, in line with its historical doctrine since the 1979 revolution—a doctrine that emphasizes diplomatic engagement on the surface but conceals methodical military advances beneath.”【IDF Briefings, 2024; U.S. State Department Reports】
Indicative of the seriousness of the current phase is the unannounced, high-profile visit by Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani to Baghdad over the past weekend. Contrary to Iranian claims of routine diplomacy, multiple Western intelligence agencies and regional sources confirm that Qaani’s mission involved direct planning sessions with the leadership of Iraq’s principal Iran-backed militias, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The meeting, which Western officials characterize as urgent and unprecedented in both timing and content, focused on preparing these militias for aggressive, high-casualty operations against U.S. and Israeli assets if a military strike against Iran becomes imminent. U.S. Central Command corroborates these findings, noting increased drone and rocket activity in areas surrounding U.S. bases in Iraq and eastern Syria over the last several weeks—a pattern that directly correlates with the intensification of threats and the potential unraveling of the nuclear deal. These developments reinforce the assessment that Iran views its proxy network as the primary instrument for deterrence and retaliation, capable of circumventing direct confrontation with superior Western militaries.”【U.S. Central Command Public Releases, Spring 2024; Israeli Ministry of Defense】
For Israel, the convergence of Iran’s nuclear ambitions with its proxy military buildup represents the realization of a long-standing strategic concern. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir have each highlighted before domestic and international media that, from Jerusalem’s perspective, the existential threat posed by a potentially nuclear-armed Iran is compounded by the risk of a multifront regional escalation coordinated from Tehran. These warnings are backed by detailed intelligence profiles, satellite imagery, and intercepted communications pointing to coordinated efforts by Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in both Syria and Iraq to synchronize responses to any Western military intervention against Iran. The Israeli government, therefore, has expanded nationwide readiness, reinforced air and missile defenses, heightened surveillance of cross-border movements by hostile forces, and accelerated joint planning with the United States and regional allies—all while emphasizing adherence to international law and seeking to avoid civilian harm.”【Israeli Cabinet Briefings; International News Agencies】
Washington’s strategic calculus has become equally urgent. Though public messaging from the Biden administration continues to prioritize diplomacy, senior defense officials and Congressional members across party lines have acknowledged in classified and public settings that the probability of a negotiated settlement is diminishing. This has led American and allied forces to enhance readiness levels throughout the region: U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups remain deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, intelligence-sharing has intensified with Israel and Gulf Arab states, and contingency plans are in place for both defensive and offensive operations targeting IRGC-linked assets if required. Voices within the United States Congress and major think tanks—including the Washington Institute for Near East Policy—have underscored the limitations of current sanctions and the need for a more integrated security framework that acknowledges both the scope and sophistication of Iran’s proxy warfare.”【U.S. Congress Briefings, May 2024; Washington Institute Policy Reports】
Iran’s IRGC Quds Force has not only deepened its engagement in Iraq but has also expanded support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, most visibly since the October 7, 2023 massacre carried out by Hamas terrorists in southern Israel. That attack, during which Iranian advisors provided operational support, constituted the most deadly antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust. Israeli officials and multiple independent analysts have documented that such acts, featuring systematic executions, sexual violence, and the abduction of civilians, are deliberate tools in Iran’s asymmetric campaign against Israel and the West. In response, Israel launched the Iron Swords War, seeking the dismantling of Hamas’s military infrastructure and the reestablishment of security along its northern and southern borders. As the IDF and intelligence services continue to uncover links between Tehran and terrorist operations throughout the region, the case for confronting Iran-backed proxies has gained traction among Western policymakers invested in maintaining regional order and protecting civilian populations.”【October 7th Massacre Documentation; Independent Intelligence Assessments】
The expanded Iranian threat is further substantiated by the Islamic Republic’s accelerating nuclear activities, openly documented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran’s continued uranium enrichment at levels far surpassing the JCPOA’s thresholds, combined with the deployment of advanced centrifuges at production sites in Natanz and Fordow, have led Israeli and Western assessments to conclude that Iran’s breakout time to nuclear weapon capability is now measured in weeks, not months. In light of these realities, the IDF—in close coordination with the United States Air Force—has increased both training and operational planning for potential airstrikes, while European NATO allies have publicly reiterated support for preventive diplomatic and, if necessary, defensive military measures to contain the risk of a regional nuclear arms race or direct confrontation.”【IAEA Reports, March–May 2024; NATO Official Statements】
Iran’s leadership has consistently framed its regional activities and weapons development as defensive responses to perceived threats from Israel and the West. However, Western and Israeli intelligence consistently attribute the increased arming of proxy groups and the supply of drones, precision-guided missiles, and anti-aircraft systems to Tehran’s explicit intent to challenge the legitimacy and territorial security of Israel and to undermine Western influence in the broader Middle East. Public speeches by Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior IRGC officers, coupled with routine calls for Israel’s destruction in state-run media, further illustrate the ideological underpinnings of current Iranian military preparations and proxy engagements. The tangible results—persistent rocket and drone attacks on Israeli communities, continued hostage-taking and abduction operations, and the threat of large-scale cross-border attacks—demonstrate the operational consequences of this doctrine.”【Official Iranian State Media; Intercepted Iranian Military Communications】
International observers warn that the intensification of Iranian proxy activity in the absence of a binding nuclear agreement risks destabilizing fragile balances throughout the Middle East. Civilian populations remain acutely vulnerable—notably Israeli hostages still unlawfully held following the October 7 massacre—and the distinction between terror operatives and unlawfully detained innocents has been thoroughly documented. Israeli authorities, partnered with the United States and Europe, continue to demand the unconditional release of all hostages and to highlight the clear moral and legal divide between democratic states observing the rules of armed conflict and the practices of Iranian-backed terror groups. There is broad bipartisan consensus among Western lawmakers, as reflected in statements from U.S. President Donald Trump and European security officials, that Israel’s right to self-defense must be preserved and that the world community cannot afford to allow Iran to tip the strategic balance of the region in its favor.”【International Red Cross; European Parliament Security Briefings; Official U.S. Statements】
Ultimately, Iran’s current maneuvers reflect a deliberate and long-prepared contingency plan—one that treats the likely end of the nuclear agreement not as a diplomatic defeat but as an opportunity to further expand its influence through violence and intimidation. As the West weighs how best to confront these multiple axes of resistance, the region teeters on the brink of a conflict with ramifications far beyond its borders. Preserving regional security, supporting the sovereignty of Western-aligned states, and upholding the rule of international law remain the central imperatives for the United States, Israel, and their allies as events continue to unfold with potentially historic consequences.
