One year after the sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iran remains at the center of regional and international scrutiny. Raisi, who died in a remote region of northwest Iran, had served as a pivotal hardline figure in Iran’s clerical regime, his tenure defined by a persistent campaign of repression at home and support for proxy conflicts across the Middle East. The anniversary of his demise highlights the enduring structural realities of Tehran’s governance, with its long-standing challenge to Western interests and regional stability.
Ebrahim Raisi’s political rise was predicated on his unwavering loyalty to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and his reputation as a chief architect of the state’s far-reaching security apparatus. Raisi’s most notorious legacy dates back to the 1988 prison massacres, in which thousands of political prisoners were executed following summary trials. International organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have documented Raisi’s direct involvement as a member of the so-called “Death Commission.” These acts were later classified as crimes against humanity, earning Raisi the moniker “Butcher of Tehran” and widespread condemnation from Western governments. Throughout his subsequent career, including as head of Iran’s judiciary and ultimately as president, he presided over the suppression of dissent and the enforcement of state ideology through systematic violence and legal persecution.
During Raisi’s presidency, which began in August 2021 and ended with his death in May 2023, domestic unrest surged to unprecedented levels. The country entered tumult following the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 while in police custody, sparking national protests over government-imposed social restrictions, especially on women. Numerous independent sources, including Iran Human Rights and Western diplomatic channels, reported that at least 500 demonstrators were killed and thousands arrested during the regime’s crackdown. International sanctions were quickly imposed by the United States and European Union, targeting senior regime officials and specifically naming Raisi for his administration’s human rights abuses.
Beyond its borders, Iran under Raisi continued to fund, train, and direct an extensive network of proxy groups throughout the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), designated as a terrorist organization by multiple governments, sharply expanded operations supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq. Official intelligence bulletins from Western and Israeli sources, along with public statements from the United States Department of State and the Israel Defense Forces, have consistently attributed to Tehran the provision of advanced weaponry, funding, and operational direction to groups intent on destabilizing regional adversaries and attacking Israeli and American personnel and interests.
The most devastating example of this strategy culminated on October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists launched a large-scale assault against Israel, resulting in the deadliest single day for Jews since the Holocaust. The attack, according to Israeli intelligence and corroborating OSINT (open-source intelligence), was enabled by Iranian financial and logistical support, and forms part of the regime’s longstanding approach to regional confrontation. Following the attack, Israel initiated the “Swords of Iron” military operation, framing its actions as a direct exercise of self-defense—a stance echoed in statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israel Defense Forces’ Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir. Western governments largely concurred that Iran’s proxy model constituted a persistent threat to both regional security and the rules-based international order.
Domestically, Raisi’s Iran saw little movement toward reform or liberalization. Systematic persecution of ethnic and religious minorities, civil society groups, internet activists, and independent journalists accelerated. Reports published by Amnesty International, annual U.S. State Department human rights reviews, and credible documentation from local dissidents have catalogued the use of arbitrary detentions, torture, censorship, and executions for political or religious offenses. Political opposition, already minimal within the framework of the Islamic Republic, was further eliminated from meaningful participation, with Raisi instrumental in expanding the authority of the judiciary and intelligence services over all aspects of daily life.
Despite Raisi’s abrupt death, the regime’s directive and personnel continuity remained assured. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s unquestioned rule and the dominance of the IRGC and allied security institutions ensured that power transitioned smoothly, with few meaningful changes to Iran’s trajectory. The apparatus of repression that Raisi helped fortify continues to underpin the government, as does Tehran’s external campaign to build an anti-Western “Axis of Resistance.”
Iran’s ongoing regional ambitions in the aftermath of Raisi’s death remain largely unchanged. The IRGC continues to direct or inspire attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, sponsors Houthi missile and drone strikes against Israel and international shipping, and maintains overt and covert support for Hezbollah’s escalation along Israel’s northern border. Each instance has been publicly acknowledged and condemned in statements released by the United States Central Command and NATO coalition partners. The Iranian regime, meanwhile, persists in its pursuit of advanced missile technology and nuclear capabilities—developments tracked by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and repeatedly flagged in Western intelligence assessments as sources of growing proliferation risk.
Within Israel, public and official recognition of the Iranian threat has galvanized domestic unity and strategic prioritization. Defense initiatives, such as the continuing upgrade of the Iron Dome and multilayered missile defenses, are critically underpinned by U.S. financial and technical support. Statements from Israeli officials—including the Prime Minister and Defense Minister—frame the current military posture as a response to an existential threat generated by Tehran’s ideology and network of terror affiliates. The October 7th massacre and its aftermath have also catalyzed greater intelligence collaboration and security cooperation with neighboring Arab states, particularly those party to the Abraham Accords, as part of a shared commitment to oppose Iranian efforts at destabilization.
From an economic standpoint, Iran’s position is increasingly precarious. The U.S. reimposition of sanctions following the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) continues to inhibit foreign investment, reduce oil revenues, and generate complex humanitarian and inflationary pressures inside Iran. While the regime has managed intermittent circumvention of sanctions, the economic benefits have rarely reached ordinary Iranians. Instead, resources are systematically redirected to maintain domestic security forces and finance regional militant activity, advancing Tehran’s strategic goals at enormous human and economic cost. Data and assessments from international economic observers, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, reflect these underlying vulnerabilities and highlight the limited prospects for near-term recovery without systemic political change.
Amid these realities, Iran’s internal dissent persists. Despite periodic suppression, civil society opposition continues, including ongoing calls for women’s rights and fundamental freedoms now championed by activists inside and beyond Iran’s borders. Accounts provided to international human rights bodies, and widely disseminated in diaspora and social media, underscore a prevailing view that Raisi’s death was unlikely to be mourned by the general population—a testament to his notoriety and the pain inflicted by the institutions he helped construct.
For Western policymakers, the enduring challenge is to navigate the dual imperatives of containing Iranian aggression and supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for a more open, accountable government. Strategies deployed over the last decade—including economic sanctions, targeted counterterror operations, and diplomatic efforts to build regional coalitions—continue to reflect the perceived necessity of confronting Iran’s theocratic model as a direct adversary of democracy, human rights, and international order. This approach is consistently articulated in public briefs and official statements by U.S. and European officials, as well as in joint communiqués with Israel and regional Arab partners.
One year after Raisi’s unexpected death, the broader trajectory of the Iranian regime remains defined by internal repression and external confrontation. The anniversary underscores the reality that Iran’s challenge to Western interests is not the product of a single leader but a deeply entrenched system. Raisi’s personal legacy—as catalogued by victims’ testimony, official reports, and decades of Western attention—serves as a reminder of the urgent stakes for the region and for the free world. As global attention remains fixed on Iran’s actions and its evolving leadership, the pursuit of democratic values, regional peace, and security for all peoples remains a foundational obligation for Western governments and their allies.
