The leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian-based terror group with roots in al-Qaeda, has cancelled a scheduled visit to Baghdad amidst escalating threats to his life from Hezbollah forces. This development underscores the intensifying rifts among Iran’s web of regional proxy groups—a network that routinely threatens Israel and Western interests—raising new questions about Tehran’s ability to maintain loyalty and control over its aligned militias.
Abu Mohammad al-Julani, notorious for orchestrating numerous attacks during Syria’s civil war, had planned to travel to the Iraqi capital as part of efforts to expand HTS’s influence and potentially broker new alliances. Security sources in the region confirmed that intelligence about credible threats from Hezbollah reached al-Julani’s inner circle days before the trip, prompting its abrupt cancellation. Israel and Western officials have interpreted the threatened reprisal as further evidence that infighting between Iran-backed organizations—despite their shared opposition to Israel—continues to disrupt Tehran’s plans for the region.
The Axis of Resistance: Background and Tensions
Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’—composed of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, Iraqi Shiite militias, and operatives in Syria—has waged a decades-long campaign of terror against Israel and its allies. While these proxies often demonstrate coordination, underlying rivalries persist due to competition for funding, arms, influence, and Iranian patronage. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, originally Jabhat al-Nusra, emerged as one of the most powerful Sunni jihadist factions during the Syrian civil war, formally severing ties with al-Qaeda leadership in recent years as it sought greater autonomy and local legitimacy.
Hezbollah, by contrast, is widely regarded as Iran’s most powerful enforcer, with extensive operational experience in Lebanon, Syria, and beyond. The group is heavily implicated in the destabilization of multiple countries, routinely carrying out attacks against Israeli and Western targets. In recent years, the IRGC has relied on Hezbollah to coerce or mediate between fractious groups, ensuring the continuity of Iran’s larger regional interests.
Motives and Risks Behind the Aborted Visit
Al-Julani’s planned trip was reportedly intended to shore up connections between HTS and sympathetic elements within Iraq. Such a move threatened to disrupt Hezbollah’s role as Iran’s preeminent proxy and posed a direct challenge to the hierarchy long enforced by the IRGC. Intelligence assessments from both Israeli and regional officials note that Hezbollah’s warnings were unusually direct, reflecting concerns that HTS’s independent agenda might undermine the unity or discipline of Tehran’s regional strategy.
This episode reveals the precarious nature of the Iranian proxy system. While these organizations persistently proclaim common cause against Israel and the West, their rivalries over resources, ideology, and power often erupt into open hostility. The competition for influence in Iraq—long a battleground for Iranian and Western interests—has drawn in a variety of actors, with al-Julani’s ambitions viewed as especially provocative by Hezbollah’s leadership.
Impact on Israel and Regional Security
For Israel, this internal discord among enemy factions may offer a temporary reprieve from coordinated attacks, but analysts warn that such schisms can trigger escalatory cycles. Terror factions, when seeking to assert dominance or regain Iranian favor, may resort to spectacular violence. The current period has seen an unprecedented surge in hostilities against Israel by Iranian-backed forces: Hamas’s October 7 massacre, ongoing rocket barrages from Lebanon and Gaza, Houthi attacks on international shipping, and missile launches at Israeli and U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria.
The Israeli government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, continues to frame these threats as a single, orchestrated war by Iran. This stance is reinforced by IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, who recently described the multifront campaign as a war for national survival against an Iranian-led alliance of terror groups.
Historical Context: Iran’s Proxy Strategy
Iran’s sponsorship of terror groups in the Middle East dates back to the 1980s, with the creation of Hezbollah marking a new phase of asymmetric warfare against Israel and Western positions. Over time, Tehran has deepened these connections, building a regional infrastructure designed to project power, wage proxy wars, and encircle Israel. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham remains an outlier—nominally independent but overlapping in personnel, resources, and ideological focus with other Iran-aligned factions.
The response to Hamas’s atrocities on October 7, 2023—described by Israeli leaders as the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust—has emboldened hardline factions while widening fissures among them. The Israeli campaign in Gaza and defensive operations on its northern border have revealed both the strength and the fragility of the so-called Axis of Resistance.
Moral and Legal Dimensions
As Israeli and international officials have repeatedly emphasized, there is no equivalence between the terrorism practiced by Iran’s proxies and the lawful measures taken by Israel to defend its population. Hostages held by terrorist factions—including those kidnapped in the October 7 massacre—remain innocent victims of war crimes, in stark contrast to convicted terrorists released in exchanges. The distinction reflects both international law and the basic moral clarity that must guide coverage and policy response.
Conclusion
The cancellation of al-Julani’s Baghdad trip, triggered by Hezbollah threats, is the latest illustration of deepening fault lines within Iran’s regional alliance structure. While the axis remains a key threat to Israel and the broader Middle East, its internal divisions complicate Iran’s efforts to impose order and maintain discipline. For Israel, these developments present both challenge and opportunity: a reminder of the persistent danger from coordinated attacks, as well as of the vulnerabilities that arise when terror groups put self-interest ahead of coordinated action.
As competition among Iran’s proxies intensifies, the imperative remains unchanged—the defense of Israel’s citizens from a campaign of terrorism that stretches across the region, orchestrated in Tehran but increasingly riven with internal strife.
