Baghdad, Iraq—An Iraqi-hosted Arab summit, aimed at advancing regional cooperation and dialogue, has become a flashpoint for regional tensions following the last-minute cancellation of attendance by a notorious ex-terror mastermind. The decision, driven by acute security concerns, sheds light on the powerful influence of Iranian-backed militias within Iraq and underscores the persistent threat posed by extremist groups to prospects for stability and diplomacy in the Middle East.
The summit, organized by Iraq’s government and slated to bring together heads of major Arab states, had controversially included as an invitee Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of the Syrian-based terrorist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a former senior commander of both al-Qaeda and ISIS. Al-Julani, whose legacy includes years of jihadist violence against Iraqi and Syrian civilians, was to participate as part of efforts to engage disparate factions claiming influence in Syria.
Complex Security Risks
However, al-Julani’s record as an architect of jihadist atrocities—responsible for countless civilian deaths and the sustained destabilization of northern Iraq and Syria—made his planned attendance a lightning rod for opposition. Iraqi sources confirm that numerous powerful Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias, many of which hold significant sway over Iraq’s security apparatus, had issued explicit threats to assassinate al-Julani if he entered Iraqi soil. Leaders of these militias, rooted within the Popular Mobilization Forces and under the ideological sway of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, regard al-Julani as a direct enemy and perpetrator of unspeakable crimes against their communities.
Despite negotiations led by Iraq’s government to assuage these militias and preserve the integrity of the summit, intelligence indicated credible and imminent threats. Security officials warned that no credible protection could be guaranteed, prompting authorities to revoke al-Julani’s invitation to avert bloodshed and political crisis during the high-level gathering.
“It was clear that the risks were insurmountable,” a senior Iraqi adviser said on background. “Bringing al-Julani to Baghdad under these conditions would have endangered not just one man, but the larger diplomatic process itself.”
Regional Dynamics and Iran’s Role
The episode spotlights the entrenched presence of Iranian-backed proxy groups inside Iraq, a reality that has shaped Iraq’s politics since the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent withdrawal of United States forces. Groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq operate with significant autonomy, advancing Tehran’s interests by suppressing rivals, including Sunni Arab actors tied to Syrian and international jihadist movements.
Their open hostility toward al-Julani reflects both their opposition to Sunni jihadist factions and ongoing hostilities with Iranian rivals throughout the region, especially amid Syria’s fractured political and military landscape. These same proxies have played leading roles in Iraq’s recent violence, interference in politics, and attacks against Western and Israeli allies, highlighting the cross-border web of influence Iran exerts.
Al-Julani: From Jihadist Figure to Realpolitik Actor
Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s trajectory represents the volatile landscape of extremist leadership in the region. Once a confidant of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in al-Qaeda in Iraq, later a founding figure in ISIS, al-Julani eventually carved out his own fiefdom as the head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib province. His efforts to morph from jihadist leader to political actor—including seeking diplomatic recognition and presenting a more moderate public image—have not materially changed assessments among Western, Israeli, and regional intelligence services: al-Julani remains deeply implicated in terror, abductions, executions, and the continued threat of Islamist militancy.
His would-be participation in Baghdad was widely condemned by victims’ groups and regional analysts. Many interpreted the invitation as a pragmatic, but ultimately dangerous attempt to engage non-state actors in crisis zones where state authority remains weak.
Implications for Israel and the Broader Conflict
The controversy arrives at a time when Israel is engaged in a multi-front war of self-defense against Iranian-backed terror networks spanning Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas in southern Israel—a terror atrocity and the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust—underscored the scale and brutality of Iranian proxies’ campaign against the Jewish state. In this broader context, the prominence and movement of figures like al-Julani have direct implications for Israeli security, coalition dynamics, and deterrence strategy.
The risk that Iraqi territory could serve as a battleground for assassinations and proxy warfare, even during a diplomatic summit, demonstrates the multidimensional threat environment Israel must contend with. Iranian-backed militias coordinating with Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other anti-Israel forces continue to use instability in Iraq and Syria as a base for operations.
Diplomacy Amid Violence: The Future of Regional Summits
The Iraqi government’s cautious approach—cancelling al-Julani’s participation under duress—raises daunting questions about the future ability of Arab states to convene inclusive diplomatic summits in an era of pervasive proxy violence and extremist risk. The move may have avoided a flashpoint during this gathering but underlines the persistent inability of state actors to control their own security landscapes in the face of militias loyal to foreign powers.
For Israel and its partners, the episode validates longstanding warnings about the dangers of negotiating with, or attempting to co-opt, terror leaders—especially those with longstanding ties to Iranian regional aggression and the broader “axis of resistance.” The outcome reinforces calls for unwavering vigilance, direct confrontation against terror proxies, and the necessity of international support for genuine counterterrorism, rather than accommodation with those implicated in past or ongoing violence.
Conclusion
The withdrawal of Abu Mohammad al-Julani from the Arab summit in Baghdad—amid threats of assassination by Iranian-controlled militias—provides a microcosm of the region’s tangled security dilemmas. It reveals an Iraq still grappling with the legacy of occupation, sectarian violence, and Iranian domination, and a wider Middle East contending with the consequences of decades-long proxy warfare. For Israel, it is a reminder that, as long as terror networks remain empowered and unchecked across its borders, the fight for national security and Jewish survival is not a diplomatic abstraction but a daily, existential imperative.
