TEL AVIV—Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent activities in the Gulf region have sparked widespread debate among regional officials and analysts, with key implications for Israel as the U.S. seeks to reassert its influence in the face of intensifying Chinese expansion and persistent Iranian-backed terrorism. As Trump, known for his business-driven approach and unpredictability, makes inroads with Gulf states, Israel must navigate an increasingly complex network of alliances and threats.
The central thrust of Trump’s recent moves appears focused on expanding American business and security interests in the Gulf, particularly with states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This initiative builds on the strategic realignments of his first term, notably the Abraham Accords, which established historic public ties between Israel and several Arab nations. Trump’s posture—often marked by ambiguity and strategic misdirection—has left both allies and adversaries guessing about Washington’s next move.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Trump views American interests as paramount and frames China as the foremost global competitor. During his presidency, he sought to limit Chinese inroads in Middle Eastern infrastructure, technology, and commerce, urging Gulf states to align firmly with U.S. priorities. These efforts, closely watched by Israeli officials, coincide with a period of intensive Iranian-backed destabilization across the region, led by terror groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
For Israel, these shifting dynamics present both opportunities and threats. Efforts to capitalize on the momentum of Arab normalization—begun under the Abraham Accords—are now tempered by uncertainty over America’s approach. While Israeli leaders see the strategic value of deepened ties with the Gulf, they are also acutely aware of the existential dangers posed by Iran and its proxies. The October 7th Hamas massacre—the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust—remains a stark reminder of the stakes: Iranian-sponsored terror groups remain committed to Israel’s destruction, and the ongoing hostage crisis exposes the brutal tactics employed by these entities.
Trump’s return to the diplomatic arena comes at a time when U.S. policy consistency is viewed as critical. While President Joe Biden has sought to manage regional tensions and counter Iranian threats, his administration is often critiqued by Israeli and Gulf policymakers for a less decisive posture compared to Trump’s. Biden-era initiatives aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program and mediating between rival regional blocs have met with limited success.
In the Gulf, state leaders must weigh the benefits of American economic engagement against potential reprisals from China and Iran. Trump’s willingness to use economic leverage, rhetoric, and unpredictability in negotiations often leaves rivals unsettled, but it has also yielded breakthroughs—such as the Abraham Accords—not previously achieved by conventional diplomacy. His transactional style, devoid of sentimental commitments, can drive rapid realignment but also unsettle traditional partners.
Israel now faces what officials describe as a period of strategic testing. Sitting at the heart of a broader U.S.-China rivalry and a region destabilized by Iranian activities, Israel’s government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must balance national security imperatives with opportunities for diplomatic and economic growth. The IDF, led by Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, continues to prepare for contingencies involving Iran and its network of proxies, staying vigilant against both immediate terrorist threats and the possibility of major regional escalation.
Looking ahead, the landscape remains fluid. Should Trump’s engagement with Gulf leaders lead to further normalization or increased pressure on Iranian influence, Israel stands to benefit from a more secure strategic environment. Conversely, any realignment toward China or greater regional hedging could erode traditional security guarantees and embolden Tehran and its terrorist affiliates.
Israeli planners emphasize the need for adaptability and strong alliances. Ongoing coordination with the United States remains the cornerstone of Israeli defense policy, but officials acknowledge the necessity of engaging new partners while safeguarding the country’s moral and legal distinction in the face of ongoing terrorist aggression. The events of October 7th—executions, abductions, and atrocities against Israeli civilians—underscore the urgency of this approach and demonstrate the continuing importance of international resolve against Iran’s proxy network.
With regional and global tensions poised to escalate further, Israel’s government and people brace for a challenging period ahead, determined to defend national sovereignty, deepen alliances, and resist threats from Iranian-backed terror groups. Trump’s assertive maneuvers in the Gulf may signal another phase of realignment—one in which Israel’s security and regional standing remain inextricably linked to the broader contest for Middle East influence.
