TEL AVIV – Growing alarm is being voiced among current and former U.S. defense officials about Iran’s rapidly advancing missile capabilities and the vulnerability facing both American forces and Israeli civilians should open conflict erupt.
A senior former U.S. Army officer has raised the issue of insufficiently transparent and rigorous strategic planning, emphasizing that the threat posed by Iran’s missile arsenal in the Middle East has reached an unprecedented level. This warning comes as Iran’s terror proxy network, from Gaza to Lebanon to Yemen, intensifies its coordinated pressure on Israel in the wake of the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, massacre — the deadliest antisemitic slaughter since the Holocaust — that triggered the ongoing Iron Swords war.
Unprecedented Missile Threat
Iran maintains one of the world’s largest and most sophisticated inventories of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles, largely overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This arsenal allows Tehran to strike targets more than 2,000 kilometers away, threatening every major population center in Israel as well as U.S. military posts throughout the region. In recent years, Iran has also supplied advanced precision-guided munitions and drones to terror organizations committed to Israel’s destruction, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi and Syrian militias. These capabilities have been increasingly demonstrated in attacks on Israeli and American targets.
Military and intelligence analysts concur that, if unleashed simultaneously by Iran and its proxies, such an arsenal could overwhelm Israel’s layered missile defense systems and place civilians under severe threat. American forces deployed in the region would likewise be exposed to mass-casualty scenarios. This fear was echoed after the January 2024 attack on the Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, an incident underscoring the limitations of even the most advanced warning systems when confronted with coordinated Iranian assaults.
Challenges for Missile Defense
Israel’s missile defense architecture — dominated by Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems — provides a critical shield against ongoing rocket and missile fire from Iranian-backed groups. Nonetheless, defense officials, including IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, concede that these systems have limits. October 2023’s rocket barrages from Gaza tested these defenses to the brink, exposing vulnerabilities when confronted by saturation tactics and more advanced projectiles provided by Iran.
Iranian-supported Hezbollah, believed to possess over 150,000 rockets and precision missiles, remains an ever-present threat on Israel’s northern border. The Houthis in Yemen, emboldened by direct support from Tehran, have launched missiles at Israel and critical maritime routes, further stretching Israel’s defense resources.
U.S.–Israel Security Coordination
The extraordinary U.S.-Israel security relationship is central to countering Iran’s ambitions. The United States supplies high-value platforms — including Aegis-equipped ships, advanced fighter aircraft, and missile-interceptor batteries — while cooperating on intelligence and joint exercises simulating multi-front missile warfare. Such drills have become increasingly important as Iran’s network, dubbed “the axis of resistance,” demonstrates its ability to coordinate attacks across multiple battlefields.
Yet, concern remains that assessments are sometimes clouded by overconfidence in defensive technology. As the former officer points out, “critical decisions must be based on transparent, reality-based calculations” to avoid repeating intelligence and doctrinal failures witnessed in recent escalations. Analysts at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies likewise stress the moral and operational imperative of honest, open evaluation at the highest echelons of command.
Escalating Regional Risks
Following the horror of October 7, Iranian-backed terror groups have only accelerated their efforts. Hezbollah continues cross-border attacks, while militias in Syria and Iraq pose persistent dangers. The Houthi campaign in Yemen, targeting Israeli territory and international commerce, represents another front in Iran’s strategy to expand its threat envelope well beyond its borders and to force a maximum-pressure dilemma on Israel and its partners.
Iran’s pattern of arming proxies, while cultivating plausible deniability, complicates response calculus for both Israel and the United States. Escalation scenarios modeled by Israeli and U.S. planners increasingly anticipate that a conflict with Iran could result in scale of casualties not seen in the Middle East for generations, particularly if missile salvos are coupled with coordinated cyber and terror attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Innovation and Urgent Adaptation
Israel, with American support, is rapidly deploying next-generation laser defenses and improving sensor networks, but the technological race is far from won. U.S. commitments to replenish interceptors and share the latest air defense advances reflect recognition that maintaining a qualitative edge is essential for deterrence and survival. Bipartisan support in Congress and the recent fast-tracking of emergency defense aid signals the seriousness with which Washington views the Iranian threat.
The Moral and Strategic Divide
The moral line distinguishing Israel and its democratic allies from Iran’s terror proxies could not be starker. Israeli society, exposed daily to the trauma of warning sirens and shelter drills, faces down an adversary whose declared goal is its annihilation and whose terror groups deliberately maximize civilian suffering. The October 7 atrocities, involving systematic slaughter, sexual violence, and the abduction of innocent men, women, and children, clarified beyond question the stakes of this war for Israel’s survival and for regional stability.
Unlike Iran’s proxies, who target civilians and celebrate terror, Israel’s war for self-defense is waged within the legal and moral framework of preserving life — a fact reflected by the meticulous care invested in missile defense and civilian warning systems. The distinction is not academic, but grounded in the lived reality of millions under threat.
Conclusion: Preparing for Hard Choices
The pressing warning from the former U.S. officer serves as a call to action: only through honest, open-ended strategic assessment and robust U.S.–Israel partnership can the mounting threat from Iran’s missile arsenal be confronted. Decisions made now will determine whether Israel and its allies can deter the next war or will be forced to weather its devastation. As Iranian proxies sharpen their knives and rockets, the imperative for transparent, informed, and decisive action has never been greater.
