A sense of high-stakes urgency has come to define diplomacy in the Middle East, as American-led regional realignment pushes governments to act decisively or face marginalization. At the center of this accelerated landscape is a vivid image: a U.S.-driven locomotive—offering only a handful of seats—is preparing to depart with the architects of a new Middle Eastern order, as other regional leaders rush to secure a place before it is too late.
Since 2020, the Abraham Accords have shaken the status quo and offered a bold model for cooperation between Israel and its Arab partners, anchored by mutual security concerns over Iranian-backed networks and growing economic and technological cooperation. The Accords began with the normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and quickly expanded to Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, establishing new diplomatic relations, trade, and joint initiatives that set benchmarks for future agreements.
The significance of these developments extends beyond diplomacy. For Israel—recently subjected to the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust during the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack—the stakes remain existential. Israeli officials, including Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, consistently describe the military campaign as an act of self-defense imposed by Iran and its terror proxies: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and affiliated militias across Syria and Iraq. These groups have waged a persistent campaign of terror, marked by atrocities including mass murder, sexual violence, mutilation, and the ongoing abduction of hostages.
American diplomacy in the region, particularly under President Donald Trump, has prioritized supporting Israel against the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, incentivizing regional governments to join in a block of cooperation. Those choosing early normalization have reaped substantial rewards, such as economic growth, advanced technology partnerships—such as cybersecurity—and increased U.S. security guarantees. The United Arab Emirates, in particular, has benefited from significant investment, innovation, and American backing, setting a precedent for others.
However, these shifts have not come without challenges. Tehran’s strategy of shaping events through its proxy network actively undermines new alliances. Incidents such as the October 7 massacre, as well as ongoing attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis, display the intention and capability of Iranian-backed groups to sow instability and obstruct diplomatic progress. The need for a robust, collective response has led to an atmosphere of urgency among regional partners, with the perception that U.S. support and prime status within this new security framework are limited resources.
For Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, the imperative to act is clear. Moving too slowly risks exclusion from the major economic, diplomatic, and security benefits now flowing to those who have normalized relations with Israel. Meanwhile, hesitance or opposition can result in increased vulnerability to terrorism, economic stagnation, and a weakened role in determining regional outcomes.
Amid these realignments, the hostage crisis remains a defining moral and humanitarian issue. Abducted Israeli civilians—including women, children, and the elderly—have come to symbolize the cost of appeasing or tolerating terror networks. Israel’s efforts to recover its hostages highlight the distinction between innocent civilians and convicted terrorists, reinforcing the need for clarity and justice in diplomatic negotiations and public communications.
While the Abraham Accords catalyzed this period of transition, subsequent negotiations and the present security environment have made it clear: the opportunity to secure a strategic alliance with the United States and Israel may soon narrow. Leaders across the Middle East now face a critical choice—join the train toward a future anchored in peace, security, and prosperity, or risk irrelevance as the hard facts of regional insecurity and opportunity shape a new era.
