A critical shortage of the high explosives TNT and specialized artillery propellants—key ingredients for producing artillery shells—has emerged as a serious challenge for defense industries worldwide, Western officials report. The shortage is primarily the result of unprecedented demand dating from Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is now complicating efforts by Israel and its allies to prepare for a widening conflict against Iranian-backed terror networks operating on its borders.
Demand Shocks in a New Era of Warfare
The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered some of the most intense artillery duels seen since World War II, leading to a meteoric rise in global consumption of 155mm shells and related munitions. Ukrainian and Russian forces have reportedly fired tens of thousands of rounds monthly, vastly outstripping the peacetime production and storage capacities of Europe and the United States. As Western nations ramped up support for Ukrainian defense, this placed unprecedented stress on stocks of explosive materials and the industrial facilities needed to refill them.
Historically, the world’s production of key explosive chemicals had declined. Legacy Cold War manufacturing plants in Europe and America were mothballed or downsized amid decades of reduced perceived threat. TNT, the standard explosive in most conventional artillery shells since the early twentieth century, and modern chemical propellants, are produced in a narrow pipeline involving hazardous materials and highly regulated processes. Slow-to-scale infrastructure, environmental rules, and reliance on a handful of suppliers for precursor chemicals—such as toluene and nitric acid—have left industrial powers unable to keep pace with today’s strategic artillery demands.
Implications for Israel’s Security
While the fighting in Ukraine is the most visible driver of demand, ripple effects are being felt far beyond Europe. In the Middle East, Israel is acutely vulnerable to supply constraints. Since the October 7, 2023 massacre—when Hamas terrorists invaded Israeli territory and carried out the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust—Israel has been compelled to maintain a heightened state of readiness against a network of Iranian-backed enemies stretching from Gaza and Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) regard artillery as an essential element of the nation’s rapid response capacity. During Operation Iron Swords and subsequent campaigns, artillery has played a pivotal role in countering urban warfare tactics and striking deeply entrenched terror networks, especially where Iranian proxy groups embed forces and infrastructure in civilian areas. Despite Israel’s world-leading defense technology and substantial indigenous weapons production, the country still imports significant quantities of basic explosives and chemicals required for the large volumes of artillery ammunition needed in sustained operations.
Israeli military and defense industry officials have repeatedly highlighted that shortages of high explosives, if left unaddressed, could impact Israel’s ability to sustain prolonged combat on multiple fronts. With Iranian proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah maintaining steady weapons inflows and indigenous production, reliable international access to TNT and related materials has become a strategic concern discussed in high-level security forums in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Broader Geopolitical Context
The global shortage is not confined to Israel and Ukraine. NATO and European Union member states, having exhausted stockpiles committed to Ukraine, are scrambling to restart or expand ammunition plants and increase output of explosives and chemical propellants. The United States, under defense emergency powers, has accelerated investment in production lines, yet faces delays due to environmental regulatory hurdles, labor shortages, and supply chain competition from civilian sectors such as chemicals and agriculture.
Meanwhile, adversarial states and terror networks have exploited these developments. Iran, a chief sponsor and supplier of weapons technology to armed groups throughout the region, maintains domestic capacity for TNT and propellants. This enables Tehran to sustain its campaign of arming proxies—including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—with artillery and precision-guided munitions, regardless of global shortages affecting Western stockpiles. Intelligence assessments in the U.S. and Israel indicate that these groups increasingly supplement their arsenals using locally manufactured explosives based on Iranian-supplied engineering and raw materials.
Mitigation and Countermeasures
NATO allies, Israel, and key Asia-Pacific states have convened urgent initiatives to coordinate stockpiles and accelerate the transfer of production know-how. Western defense ministries are fostering new joint ventures and expediting the reopening of old explosives plants. Israel specifically has increased investment in domestic industry but acknowledges continuous dependence on international imports—especially in crisis scenarios involving multi-front engagements and irregular warfare from terror networks who are not subject to the same regulatory or logistical limitations as sovereign states.
This renewed focus on industrial readiness draws lessons from historic mobilizations but faces unique 21st-century constraints: environmental standards, high capital costs, and exposure to geopolitical disruptions. Israeli officials, along with partners in Washington and European capitals, have appealed for distributive resilience—sharing manufacturing capacity and information to prevent bottlenecks or hostile interference.
The Stakes for Israel and the West
Ultimately, the global TNT and propellant shortage is not just a technical or logistical crisis. It represents a test of the ability of Western democracies—and Israel in particular—to deter or defeat adversaries who seek their destruction through relentless, attritional war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir have publicly tied security readiness to the ability to sustain high-intensity conflict for as long as threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian-orchestrated terror networks persist. Major shortages in explosive materials would compromise not only battlefield maneuver but also the fundamental goal of protecting Israeli civilians from atrocities and abductions.
As geopolitical rivalry sharpens, the need to address these vulnerabilities grows ever more urgent. Israel’s experience underscores that readiness is measured not just in advanced weaponry and intelligence but in the solidity and resilience of the logistical chains that feed them. For Israel and the broader Western alliance, overcoming the TNT and propellant shortage is central to maintaining the freedom and capability to respond decisively to acts of terror and aggression now, and in conflicts yet to come.
