TEL AVIV—As much of the world looks on with apprehension, the Middle East is undergoing profound transformations that defy decades of old assumptions and diplomatic dogma. For Israel, the region’s only democratic state, these shifts are not mere headlines, but imminent realities shaping the threat landscape and future national security.
In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 massacre—the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust, executed by Hamas terrorists under direct support from Iran—the long-held dreams of a “new Middle East” (מזרח תיכון חדש) have been put to a sobering test. While Western policymakers often cling to the hope of rapid normalization, dialogue, and integration, on the ground a complex realignment is underway.
The phrase “מזרח תיכון חדש חחחחחחחחח”—translated as “A new Middle East, haha”—captures the cynicism of many Israelis and regional observers. For years, visionaries projected a near future of Abraham Accords-like rapprochement, where Israel, moderate Arab nations, and the West would join hands to build a region of prosperity, peace, and shared challenge. Yet, repeated eruptions of terror, sectarian strife, and great power rivalry have made this vision appear increasingly naive.
This skepticism is not borne of pessimism, but bitter experience. Since the Oslo Accords through to the Iranian nuclear agreements and subsequent Abraham Accords, every attempt at fundamental transformation has been met by surges of violence, the emergence of new terror factions, and the resilience of old animosities. Not least among these: Iran’s determination to dominate the region through proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—a fact often underestimated or ignored by statesmen in Washington and Brussels.
As Israeli analysts and many intelligence officials have noted, the West frequently fails to grasp the true motivations of regional actors. Statements such as “המערב מטומטם היה וישאר” (the West was and will remain foolish) reflect a frustration borne out by repeated policy miscalculations: from the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, to the appeasement of Iran, to the reliance on unreliable Sunni regimes. Western governments have, more than once, mistaken temporary tactical cooperation for deep, strategic change.
Crucially, peace agreements and normalization have at times led Western policymakers to overestimate the resilience of détente, assuming that historic divides—sectarian, ethnic, and ideological—could be swiftly bridged by economic incentives or diplomatic breakthroughs. Israeli national security circles have repeatedly warned that ideological enmities and the ambitions of the Iranian regime cannot be neutralized simply by integrating new partners into energy markets or tech sectors.
The past year has seen an historic change: the traditional binary of Saudi-backed Sunni versus Iran-backed Shia blocs is in flux. While the message referenced the notion that “the Shi’ite axis is being replaced by the Sunni axis,” reality is more nuanced—but equally ominous.
Iran continues to invest billions in proxy militias and missile production, determined to encircle Israel and threaten moderate Arab governments. Yet, at the same time, rivalry between key Sunni leaders—especially in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar—has created fissures exploited by Iranian intelligence and its terror arms.
For Israel, this has significant ramifications. Where previously Jerusalem could rely on limited but pragmatic security cooperation with Gulf and Egyptian officials, the possibility of unpredictable realignment—spurred by regime change, economic shocks, or renewed sectarian clashes—means the landscape is increasingly uncertain. Amid this flux, the stated goal of the so-called “axis of resistance” remains Israel’s isolation and eventual destruction, a threat Western governments continuously understate.
The massacre of October 7 shattered the illusion of containment. Thousands of heavily armed Hamas terrorists—trained, financed, and equipped by Iran—conducted atrocities in Israeli communities across the Gaza border, executing, torching, and abducting innocent civilians in acts of barbarism that the world had not witnessed since the genocides of the 20th century. The terrorists’ actions, including sexual violence, mutilations, and mass abductions, have been verified by multiple investigations and governmental agencies, leaving no doubt as to the criminal and antisemitic motivations of the perpetrators.
The aftermath thrust Israel into a war of self-defense that continues to this day. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), under Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir and the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have pursued a campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure, secure Israel’s borders, and prevent further atrocities.
At every stage, Iran’s hand has been visible—not only in Gaza, but also through Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operations in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis’ missile and drone barrages in southern Israel. The localized war against Hamas is thus a front in a much broader campaign imposed by Iran and its proxies to destabilize the region and target Western interests.
Another pillar of this conflict is information manipulation. Iranian-backed forces and their allies have invested heavily in disinformation campaigns, seeking to delegitimize Israel and obscure the true origins of the conflict. International organizations and media channels have often amplified unverified casualty figures and accusations against Israel, while downplaying the war crimes and ideological extremism of terror groups.
This double standard is keenly felt in Israel, where the population recalls both the history of existential threats and the reality of being routinely blamed for wars it did not start. For those “angry at the picture” (“לכל העוקבים העצבנים על התמונה”), the message is clear: the main event—the full extent of the threat facing Israel and the region—has yet to unfold.
Iran, recognizing both its demographic limitations and its regime’s unpopularity at home, has opted for indirect war, outsourcing violence to groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. These organizations operate as extensions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, taking direction from Tehran to engage Israeli and Western targets at times and locations that suit the broader strategy.
Alongside these campaigns, Iran relentlessly pursues nuclear capabilities. Despite international monitoring and periodic diplomatic engagement, Israeli intelligence maintains that the current regime’s nuclear ambitions remain undeterred. Former Mossad and IDF officials have repeatedly warned that, should Tehran achieve weaponization, the threat to Israel—and the entire Sunni Arab world—would reach an existential level.
Not all developments are cause for pessimism. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, remain a historic milestone in Israel’s normalization with parts of the Arab world. These agreements, which have since seen expanded economic and security cooperation, illustrate that pragmatic accommodation is possible—even if tenuous.
Yet Iranian-backed factions work daily to undermine such progress, targeting signatory states with propaganda, terror threats, and economic coercion. The durability of these accords depends on the ability of Israel and its partners, with support from the United States, to withstand both the kinetic and psychological pressure campaigns of Tehran and its terrorist auxiliaries.
For all the rhetoric of support, there is a growing perception that Washington and Europe are outpaced by events on the ground. The Biden administration’s attempts at balancing appeasement of Iran with support for Israel have pleased neither side and emboldened hostile actors. Regional observers note that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and wavering enforcement of sanctions have sent the message that the West may not stand by its promises.
Israeli officials warn that such hesitancy, if unchecked, could irreparably damage both Israel’s and moderate Arab regimes’ confidence in America as a guarantor of stability. In the words of one Jerusalem security analyst, “There is no new Middle East if Iran’s proxies continue to murder Jews with impunity.”
As Israeli society confronts the fallout of October 7 and the ongoing campaign, the public mood is a mix of resolve and somber realism. The idea that “the big show has yet to begin” refers both to the unpredictable trajectory of this war—and to the likely future confrontations with Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iranian-led forces.
In the face of international pressure and information warfare, Israel is steadfast in its mission: to safeguard its citizens, free the hostages held in Gaza, and confront the threats posed by a terror network determined to erase it from the map. Every day the IDF operates in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond, is a day spent defending not only Israel but the broader interests of the free world against the advance of jihadist authoritarianism.
Ultimately, the future of the “new Middle East” will not be determined by wishful thinking or Western diplomatic overtures, but by the resilience of democracies, the resolve to confront terror, and the moral clarity to distinguish between defenders and aggressors. The world must recognize that, for Israel and its allies, the stakes are existential—and that the lessons of history demand vigilance and truth, not delusion.
The shifting Middle Eastern order, punctuated by tragic violence and unstable alliances, leaves little room for self-delusion. While public attention may wax and wane, for Israel the conflict is ongoing and deeply personal—a fight for survival against those who have made clear their intention to destroy the Jewish state. As policymakers and commentators contemplate the region’s future, they would do well to heed the lessons of the past year: terrorism thrives where naiveté reigns, and only steadfast defense of democracy can preserve the possibility of peace.
