In a rapidly evolving global landscape, China’s ascendance as a dominant force in Pakistan—and the broader repercussions for American strategic interests—represent a profound shift with urgent implications for Israel and its allies in the Middle East. While Washington’s longstanding partnership with Islamabad has long been an anchor of U.S. influence in South Asia, China’s deepening political, economic, and military ties with Pakistan now cast a long strategic shadow, intensifying competition between the world’s great powers and triggering realignments with potentially seismic effects across the region.
China-Pakistan Relations: The Axis Grows Stronger
The China-Pakistan relationship is rooted in decades of pragmatic cooperation, but the past decade has witnessed a remarkable acceleration, spearheaded by the transformative China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—a $62 billion flagship project under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Stretching thousands of kilometers from China’s western provinces to the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar, CPEC serves both as an engine of infrastructure modernization in Pakistan and as a strategic artery for Chinese trade and energy supplies, circumventing U.S.-controlled maritime chokepoints. Since its launch in 2015, Chinese investment has flooded into highways, power plants, communication networks, and industrial parks across Pakistan, propelling the two nations into an era of unprecedented interdependence.
Yet, China’s strategy in Pakistan transcends mere economics. Drawing on a confluence of shared interests—with both nations wary of India’s regional ambitions and the instability emanating from Afghanistan—Beijing has become Pakistan’s foremost diplomatic, military, and technological patron. China’s supply of advanced fighter aircraft, naval vessels, missile systems, and emerging cyber warfare capabilities underscores a strategic calculus to position Pakistan as both a loyal partner and a proxy for projecting Chinese power deep into South Asia and the wider Indian Ocean basin.
America’s Waning Grip: The Strategic Vacuum in South Asia
For decades, American support for Pakistan—anchored by military aid, counterterrorism cooperation, and diplomatic engagement—was seen as vital to U.S. interests, especially during the Cold War and the war in Afghanistan. However, relations have frayed in recent years, marred by mutual distrust, diverging interests, and Washington’s growing rapprochement with India. Pakistan’s perceived double game in Afghanistan, combined with growing Congressional skepticism, led to reductions in U.S. aid and diplomatic engagement. Into this vacuum, China has advanced assertively, underwriting Pakistan’s economic development and positioning itself as Islamabad’s indispensable ally.
This realignment marks not merely a shift in patronage but a structural transformation of regional order. As China and Pakistan synchronize their interests, American influence over Islamabad’s strategic choices has diminished, constraining Washington’s ability to mediate regional crises or leverage the Pakistani military as an intelligence partner. For Israel, which relies on U.S. dominance to deter Iranian-backed terrorism and to stabilize the Middle East, this erosion of American leverage is a development worthy of acute scrutiny.
Technology and Military Collaboration: Beijing’s Proxy Playbook
The scale and intensity of Sino-Pakistani cooperation in defense technology are striking. Joint fighter jet production—the JF-17 Thunder program—has armed Pakistan’s air force with advanced capabilities at a fraction of Western procurement costs. Chinese-supplied frigates, submarines, and a range of missile systems enhance naval and strategic deterrence vis-à-vis India. Reports also indicate that Pakistan has acquired Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), cyber warfare technologies, and precision-guided munitions, effectively leapfrogging older U.S.-supplied technology.
More concerning for Israel and Western-aligned Middle East states is the spread of these advanced capabilities to other actors in the region, both through direct transfers and via a growing network of joint defense industries. Pakistan’s nuclear program—acquired with Chinese technological support—remains a source of anxiety, particularly amid instability and the risk of technology proliferation to state and non-state actors, including those hostile to Israel.
The Ideological and Tactical Nexus: Threats to Israeli and Western Interests
While China maintains formal diplomatic ties with all states in the region, including Israel, its intensifying support for regimes and factions opposed to American and Israeli interests is a strategic reality. Pakistan’s history of engagement with Islamist terror organizations—including the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates in Kashmir—underscores the risks posed by its newfound Chinese backing. Enhanced economic and military resources, as well as political cover from Beijing, could embolden elements within Pakistan to support or facilitate operations detrimental to Israeli security and regional stability.
Thus, Israel and concerned allies must confront not only the military threat emanating from Iranian-backed organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah, but also the possibility of a more integrated, Sino-backed political-military axis stretching from East Asia through South Asia and into the heart of the Middle East.
Israel’s Strategic Calculus: Security, Alliances, and Technological Superiority
Israel’s security doctrine is founded on qualitative military and technological superiority over adversaries, robust intelligence sharing with U.S. and Western partners, and the development of mutually beneficial alliances with moderate Arab states—epitomized by the Abraham Accords. However, Israel is mindful that shifting global alignments, including China’s rise and deepening involvement in flashpoints across Asia and Africa, pose new challenges to this calculus.
While Israel maintains strong economic ties with China—mainly in the fields of technology, agriculture, and infrastructure—Jerusalem is acutely aware of the security implications. The U.S. has expressed concern over Chinese involvement in sensitive Israeli infrastructure projects, prompting reviews and strengthened safeguards. More fundamentally, Israel understands that China’s approach to security is inherently transactional; Beijing’s support is conditioned on commercial and geopolitical interests, with little regard for the values-based alliances that underpin Israeli-American cooperation.
The Middle East Chessboard: Iran, the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ and China’s Courtship
Beijing’s outreach to Pakistan is paralleled by its complex balancing act vis-à-vis the Iranian regime and its terror proxies—including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and militias embedded in Syria and Iraq. China’s heavy import of Iranian oil, its strategic investments in Iranian infrastructure, and recent diplomatic initiatives—such as brokering Saudi-Iranian talks—highlight efforts to fashion itself as an indispensable regional powerbroker.
Yet, as Israel confronts the existential threat posed by Iranian-sponsored escalation, most recently manifested in the October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas and ongoing rocket attacks by Hezbollah, the growing influence of a Sino-Pakistani-Iranian triangle should raise alarms in Jerusalem and beyond. Viewed in this light, China’s encroachment is not a matter for abstract geopolitical theorizing but a real and present challenge to the security architecture underpinning Israel’s well-being and the broader Western-backed order.
America’s Role: Leadership in Question
The U.S. remains Israel’s most vital ally and the principal architect of international efforts to counter Iran and its terror proxies. However, Washington’s pivot to Asia, internal political discord, and apparent retrenchment in some Middle Eastern theatres have emboldened adversaries and fueled perceptions of American decline. This has accelerated the urgency for Israel to diversify its alliances, strengthen its indigenous defense capabilities—such as the Iron Dome, cyber warfare units, and advanced missile defense—and press for unequivocal American commitments to Israeli security.
Despite regional volatility, Israel remains a linchpin of stability and technological innovation, its security services a bulwark against the spread of Iranian and Islamist terror. However, the calculus is changing: Should China supplant America as the dominant powerbroker in South Asia, including Pakistan, the ripple effects will inevitably be felt in Jerusalem’s ability to secure its borders and project deterrence.
Policy Implications: Navigating the New Multipolar Disorder
Israeli policymakers and their Western partners face a series of urgent choices:
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Enhanced Intelligence Cooperation: Israel and the U.S. must intensify intelligence sharing on Chinese activities in Pakistan, Iran, and the wider region—including illicit technology transfers and efforts to undermine Western sanctions regimes.
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Defensive Technology Safeguards: Jerusalem must implement stringent vetting of foreign investments and technology projects to prevent inadvertent strategic leakage, especially in dual-use sectors such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and communications infrastructure.
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Counter-Proxy Campaigns: Sustained military and diplomatic campaigns against Iranian-backed terror organizations—backed by superior intelligence, advanced weaponry, and political resolve—remain essential to containing the spread of hostile influence.
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Strengthening Alliances Beyond the U.S.: Deepening ties with moderate Arab states, Europe, India, and Indo-Pacific partners creates a web of support that constrains China’s ability to reshape the Middle East in its image.
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Public Diplomacy and Strategic Communication: Israel and the West must communicate the moral clarity and justice of their struggle against Iranian and Islamist aggression. Clear, fact-based messaging is vital to counter international misinformation campaigns, especially those amplified by hostile state actors.
Conclusion: The Stakes for Israel and the World
China’s growing dominance in Pakistan is not merely an adjustment in regional power arrangements; it is a structural realignment that reverberates across continents. For Israel, confronting state-sponsored terrorism, safeguarding its people from atrocities like the October 7 massacre, and maintaining its edge in a dynamic strategic environment require vigilance and adaptability. The realignment underway in South Asia presents risks and challenges, but also opportunities for renewed engagement, smarter alliances, and the unwavering defense of national sovereignty and democratic values.
The world must not lose sight of bedrock truths: Israel’s war is rooted in self-defense against implacable, Iranian-backed enemies. Chinese advances in Pakistan are not isolated but part of a broader contest for regional and global supremacy—one that will shape the Middle East’s fate, and with it, the security of the democratic world. Concerted action is needed to ensure that the regional order is defined by peace, stability, and resilience—not by the ambitions of rogue states and their great power sponsors.
