US crude oil futures surged by more than $2 on Thursday following a series of international reports indicating that Israel is preparing for potential military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. The sharp move in oil prices, registered on major exchanges from New York to London, has drawn global attention to the mounting tensions between Israel and Iran—a conflict seen as increasingly volatile given Iran’s advances in its nuclear program and Israel’s public red lines regarding its security. The immediate trigger for this market reaction was a set of intelligence leaks and corroborative reporting by respected international media citing Western and regional security officials, who stated that Israeli defense and intelligence establishments are updating detailed operational plans for preemptive action if Iran approaches a nuclear weapons capability or directly violates long-standing nonproliferation agreements.
The reported Israeli preparatory measures underscore the enduring risk of regional escalation in the Middle East and the global economic consequences that can result from security crises in the world’s key energy-producing region. Israel’s history provides relevant context: In 1981, Israel launched Operation Opera to destroy Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, and in 2007, a similar covert air operation eliminated Syria’s Al-Kibar reactor. In both operations, Israel announced their necessity as acts of last resort to prevent hostile regimes from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities—a policy of prevention rooted in a national ethos shaped by the trauma and lessons of the Holocaust. Both cases were later validated by independent US intelligence assessments and have become defining precedents in Middle Eastern and nonproliferation history. Yet, the Iranian nuclear infrastructure presents a heretofore unseen level of operational and diplomatic complexity due to its dispersal, fortification, and integration in the broader security strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran has for years publicly stated its intention to eliminate the State of Israel, which it refers to as a ‘Zionist entity,’ and its leadership has provided wide-ranging support to a network of proxy forces across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and affiliated militias in Iraq and Syria. These forces have repeatedly targeted Western interests and civilian populations, employing tactics that range from direct missile strikes against Israeli cities to sabotaging international shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian regime, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—officially designated as a terrorist organization by the United States—has escalated covert operations and rejected international demands for transparency regarding its nuclear and ballistic missile activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the principal UN nuclear watchdog, has documented repeated instances where Iran failed to meet its safeguard obligations, exceeding uranium enrichment limits and restricting inspector access, in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and multiple UN Security Council resolutions.
The breakdown of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), originally intended to constrain Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, has further heightened tensions. The agreement lost US support after President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018, citing both Iran’s non-compliance and its sustained backing for terrorism and regional adventurism. In the years since, Iran has accelerated its nuclear enrichment activities, broadened its ballistic missile arsenal, and deepened its involvement in regional conflict zones—sharpening the dilemmas faced by Western policymakers and triggering repeated warnings from successive Israeli governments. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, joined by current Defense Minister Israel Katz and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, has unequivocally stated that Israel will act unilaterally if necessary to prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold, emphasizing the nation’s inherent right of self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, supported by close strategic coordination with the United States.
These strategic concerns are not theoretical. The atrocities of October 7, 2023, in which Hamas terrorists—funded, trained, and armed by Iran—entered Israeli border communities, killing more than 1,200 civilians through mass executions, sexual abuse, mutilations, and kidnappings, stand as the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust. These acts have been meticulously documented by Israeli authorities and verified by international observers; their scale and brutality underscore the stakes in the struggle against Iranian-backed terror networks. In the aftermath, Israel launched defensive operations against multiple regional threats, combating Hamas in Gaza and contending with persistent rocket and drone fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq.
The continued expansion of Iran’s nuclear program—evidenced by successive IAEA reports confirming enrichment activities well beyond JCPOA limits—has heightened the urgency of Israel’s defensive planning. Western intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran now possesses sufficient fissile material for several nuclear weapons within a short breakout window, should it opt for weaponization. Iran’s refusal to provide clarity on the military dimensions of its nuclear program, the concealment of enrichment sites such as Fordow and Natanz, and frequent threats from IRGC commanders against Israeli and American interests have convinced many Western analysts and policymakers that the risk of a surprise regional war has never been higher since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
The strategic calculus for Israel is further complicated by the limits of international enforcement. Multilateral diplomatic forums, including the UN Security Council, have repeatedly failed to impose effective constraints on Iran, largely due to resistance from Russia and China—both of which have provided Tehran with diplomatic and, in some cases, technological support. The Abraham Accords, underpinned by US diplomacy, have led to historic partnerships between Israel and Gulf Arab states, who share deep security concerns about Iran’s expansionism and recognize the collective threat a nuclear-armed Iran would pose.
The recent surge in oil prices reflects the global market’s acute sensitivity to conflict risk and supply disruption in the Gulf region. The 2019 attacks on major Saudi oil installations by Iranian-backed Houthi forces demonstrated just how vulnerable the region’s energy infrastructure remains to drone and missile attacks—a vulnerability that has only increased as Iran and its proxies have advanced their arsenals. Analysts and Western officials have warned that Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites could elicit retaliatory attacks on energy shipping in the Persian Gulf, rocket and missile barrages targeting Israeli cities, or direct conflict with US forces stationed in the region.
Within Israel, preparations for a potential strike are being driven by a long-standing doctrine of maintaining regional military supremacy and deterring existential threats. The government’s position, articulated by both political and security leaders, is that the history of failed international deterrence—from the Holocaust to recent failures to stem Iranian armament—demands a proactive, self-reliant approach to national security. Israel’s defense establishment, working in close cooperation with its US counterparts, has invested heavily in advanced missile defense systems such as Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow-3, positioning itself to confront a spectrum of threats—from terrorist rockets to precision-guided missiles and drones. Still, as Israeli defense officials have repeatedly cautioned, no system can guarantee absolute protection against the scale and sophistication of a concerted multi-front assault potentially orchestrated by the IRGC and its terror proxies.
Diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis remain ongoing. The United States and European allies have urged restraint but reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defense, while also warning Tehran that any attempt to weaponize its nuclear program would meet with swift international response. Senior US defense officials, while declining to confirm operational specifics, have emphasized the importance of close coordination between Washington and Jerusalem and deployed additional forces to the region as a deterrent. Israel, for its part, continues to advance both covert and overt measures to disrupt Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as exemplified by the high-profile Mossad operation that extracted the Iranian nuclear archives from Tehran in 2018—a trove that provided Western intelligence with direct evidence of past weaponization research in violation of Iran’s international commitments.
These efforts have not fully assuaged market concerns. The possibility of expanded hostilities threatens not only regional stability but also the security of global commerce, energy supplies, and freedom of navigation. The current hostage crisis, a direct consequence of the October 7 atrocities, remains unresolved: Israeli civilians continue to be held captive by Hamas and other Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, their plight highlighted by international humanitarian agencies and used as leverage in ongoing negotiations. The Israeli government has insisted that all hostages must be released immediately and unconditionally. Western officials and analysts draw a clear moral and legal distinction between the innocent status of these hostages and the position of convicted terrorists whose release is demanded by these groups—underscoring the ethical asymmetry at the heart of the conflict.
As the threat of Israeli action against Iranian nuclear facilities becomes more widely discussed—both in official channels and international media—the situation remains dynamic and fluid. Energy markets will continue to react to signals of potential conflict or diplomatic progress, reflecting the enduring centrality of Middle Eastern stability to the global economy and Western security. The actions and calculations of Israel, Iran, and their respective allies will remain subject to intense scrutiny by governments, markets, and civil societies alike. For Israel, the imperative of self-defense in the face of existential threats is unwavering, rooted in hard evidence, historical experience, and broad domestic consensus—a stance echoed by Western partners whose security interests and values converge in their shared opposition to terror and nuclear proliferation in the world’s most volatile region.
