A newly released report from the Alma Center reveals a significant escalation in covert activities by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and its proxy, Hezbollah, within Jordan. For over 25 years, Iranian-backed terrorist organizations have worked quietly to expand their influence in the Hashemite Kingdom. Now, their increasingly aggressive approach is deepening concerns for both Jordanian stability and regional security, as well as exposing Israel to new forms of cross-border terrorist threat.
The Alma Center’s analysis identifies Jordan as a critical front in Iran’s strategy to undermine pro-Western regimes and intensify multi-front campaigns against Israel. This clandestine expansion is not carried out directly by Iranian or Hezbollah operatives; rather, it leverages extremist factions already present in Jordan, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, residents of Gaza-origin camps, Palestinian terrorist infiltrators from Lebanon, and visiting Shi’a pilgrims with possible ties to Iranian networks.
Crucially, the report specifies two primary goals for this activity: first, to destabilize the Jordanian monarchy and fuel internal dissent; second, to exploit Jordan as a geographic conduit for launching terror operations and smuggling advanced weaponry into Israel and Judea and Samaria. Israel’s border with Jordan, stretching some 300 kilometers and affording limited protection in key sectors, represents a major vulnerability. Both Israeli and Jordanian security authorities have intercepted smuggling and terror-related activity, but the sheer scale and sophistication of these threats remain a constant challenge.
Background: Why Jordan Matters
Jordan has maintained a formal peace with Israel since 1994 and functions as a buffer state on Israel’s eastern front. Its stability allows for critical security coordination and helps contain the influence of Iranian-aligned proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and affiliated militias. This balance is now under pressure as Iran seeks to exploit social, political, and economic vulnerabilities within Jordan. The report details that anti-regime elements have been actively courted or infiltrated by Iranian agents intent on fostering unrest or radicalization.
Exploiting Jordan’s porous border with Israel is a cornerstone of Iran’s approach. Compared to the more heavily fortified Gaza and Lebanese frontiers, much of the Jordanian boundary is lightly monitored, making it a preferred channel for arms smuggling and infiltration. Advanced conventional weapons, explosives, and electronic devices have been seized en route to terrorist cells in Judea and Samaria.
Tactics: Proxy Operations Under the Radar
Hezbollah and the IRGC Quds Force operate with deliberate deniability, integrating their operatives into pre-existing local structures. The report highlights several key tactics:
– Radicalization and Recruitment: Extremist ideologies are promoted within marginalized populations, including Gaza-origin residents and refugee camps, with recruitment supported by material incentives and propaganda.
– Arms Smuggling: Networks use Jordan’s terrain and limited border controls to introduce sophisticated weaponry into Israel and the West Bank, boosting the offensive capacity of groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
– Operational Safe Havens: Jordanian territory is exploited for transit and planning by operatives crossing through under the guise of legitimate travel—pilgrimage, business, or trade.
– Subversive Funding: Iranian and Hezbollah sponsors provide financial and logistical support to sympathetic groups, facilitating both agitation and terror preparation.
Escalating Threat: Regional Ramifications
The intensified focus on Jordan underlines the broader strategy of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” which seeks to encircle Israel and undermine moderate Arab partners through subversion and asymmetric warfare. The October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas stands as a stark reminder of how quickly terror groups, backed by Iranian arms and training, can shift the balance of power on the ground. The report positions Jordan as a potential new front in this ongoing campaign.
Jordan’s own security apparatus has responded by disrupting numerous plots, intercepting arms, and arresting suspected agents, but internal pressures—economic hardship, demographic challenges, and pockets of ideological sympathy with extremists—complicate its efforts. Nevertheless, the survival of the Hashemite regime and Israel’s security both depend on recognizing and countering these covert operations.
Israeli and Regional Response
Israeli security leaders—including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir—have repeatedly emphasized the strategic importance of a secure Jordanian border. Israel is expanding intelligence sharing, stepping up surveillance, and assessing the enhancement of physical defenses along the eastern frontier. Broader intelligence cooperation between the two states underscores their mutual interest in containing Iran’s reach, despite occasional diplomatic tensions.
At the same time, the findings of the Alma Center serve as a warning to the international community. The expansion of Iranian-Hezbollah influence in Jordan could carry grave consequences not just for Israel, but for the entire region—potentially destabilizing a key ally and giving Tehran new leverage across multiple fronts. The threat is multi-layered: it involves clandestine operations, ideological warfare, and the persistent risk of a border breach that could launch the next major escalation.
Conclusion: Enduring Vigilance Required
The Alma Center’s report marks a pivotal moment in understanding the next phase of Iran’s regional campaign. As the only moderate Arab kingdom directly bordering Israel, Jordan is both a prime target and a critical partner in resisting Iranian ambitions. The security of Israel’s longest border now hinges on relentless vigilance, enhanced regional cooperation, and a united stand against the Iranian terror apparatus seeking to use Jordan as both a shield and a sword.
While Israel continues to defend itself against unprecedented threats from Iranian-backed militants in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and beyond, the dangers posed by covert subversion in Jordan must not be underestimated. The future security of the region—perhaps even the fate of the Jordanian monarchy—now rests on the world’s ability to confront and contain Iran’s expanding shadow war.
