Despite repeated calls for Hezbollah to lay down its arms, the notion that the Iranian-backed terror group will disarm remains a dangerous illusion. Hezbollah is not just a rogue militia—it is a fully embedded arm of Iran’s global jihadist network and a de facto ruling force within Lebanon itself.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese State
It is no longer possible to distinguish between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state. Despite efforts by some analysts to draw a line between Lebanon’s official institutions and Hezbollah’s militant wing, the facts on the ground paint a different picture. Hezbollah is entrenched in every layer of Lebanese society—from parliament to the streets of southern Lebanon. Its weapons are not merely tolerated; they are protected by the state’s inaction and, in some cases, passive complicity.
During a recent ceasefire in hostilities, fresh intelligence from multiple sources confirmed the obvious: Hezbollah’s massive weapons stockpiles remain intact, under its sole control. Political shifts or military adjustments may occur, but the core remains unchanged—Hezbollah will not relinquish its weapons.
A Political Deadlock Rooted in Fear
Lebanon’s internal politics have long been paralyzed by the Hezbollah dilemma. While Lebanon’s president—himself a former army general—may express a desire to see Hezbollah disarmed, his words carry no weight against the real power dynamic. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are effectively paralyzed by the looming threat of civil war. Any attempt to curb Hezbollah’s influence or enforce disarmament could trigger violent retaliation from the terror group, which is capable of launching a full-scale war within hours.
This paralyzing fear explains why the redeployment of Lebanese forces to southern Lebanon has been slow and hesitant. Hezbollah’s iron grip on the region remains firm.
The Boiling Reality on the Ground
The illusion of peace is further shattered by the daily targeted strikes and ongoing assassinations occurring in southern Lebanon. These strikes, many of which are attributed to Israeli intelligence, highlight the reality that this is not a cold war—it is a smoldering conflict. Hezbollah’s public attempts to appear restrained are nothing more than a strategic pause, not a shift in ideology.
Hezbollah Will Not Disarm
The evidence is overwhelming. Hezbollah is not an independent militia—it is Iran’s military outpost in Lebanon. It controls tens of thousands of rockets aimed at Israeli cities and serves as Tehran’s most powerful proxy in the region. Disarmament is not an option on the table for Hezbollah, because its very identity and survival depend on its weapons. Any expectation that the group will willingly relinquish its arsenal is not just naïve—it’s dangerously detached from reality.
While Hezbollah clings to its weapons, Israel has already achieved what diplomacy never could: it has begun to make those weapons irrelevant. Through superior intelligence, relentless aerial campaigns, and surgical strikes, Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Operation Northern Arrows—part of Israel’s broader Iron Swords War—has been devastatingly effective. Launched after Hezbollah joined Iran’s multi-front assault on Israel in October 2023, the campaign saw the IDF carry out thousands of targeted strikes on Hezbollah command centers, rocket stockpiles, and underground bunkers.
By late 2024, Israeli forces had eliminated key Hezbollah figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, and several Redwan Force commanders. These weren’t just symbolic kills—they were operational decapitations. Hezbollah has since struggled to coordinate its military activities or recover morale.
Hezbollah’s Forced Retreat
The ultimate blow came with the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024, which forced Hezbollah to retreat north of the Litani River—an unprecedented rollback of its presence near Israel’s border. The Lebanese army was then deployed to fill the vacuum, finally enforcing what the UN’s Resolution 1701 demanded nearly two decades ago.
