For months, a central question has persisted throughout Israel’s security discourse and among global analysts: why has Hezbollah, Iran’s premier regional proxy, not launched a significant response to Israel’s targeted strikes and assassinations in Lebanon? While northern Israel remains on high alert and Lebanese territory has seen repeated Israeli airstrikes targeting terrorist infrastructure, a wider conflict has not erupted—revealing a calculated and deliberate Iranian-Hezbollah strategy with implications for regional security and Israel’s future.
Israel’s Air Campaign and the Extent of Hezbollah’s Losses
Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists carried out the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust, Israel has been at war on multiple fronts. In addition to its ground operations in Gaza, the IDF—under Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir—has enacted a series of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. These strikes have destroyed command centers, arms depots, and missile launch sites, and have killed senior Hezbollah commanders. Israeli official statements and international intelligence sources confirm that Hezbollah’s capabilities, infrastructure, and operational depth have incurred significant damage. Yet, as Israeli analysts frequently note, the group is far from obliterated; large segments of its arsenal and senior leadership remain intact and functional.
Understanding Hezbollah’s Silence
Despite possessing an estimated arsenal of over 150,000 rockets—many supplied by Iran—along with specialized forces and fortified positions throughout southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has responded only with limited rocket attacks and border skirmishes. Contrary to some public perceptions of weakness, this posture is rooted in a deliberate long-term strategy rather than incapacity or fear. Regional intelligence assessments and Israeli defense officials interpret Hezbollah’s apparent restraint as a bid to conserve remaining capabilities, avoid further depletion, and defer to instructions from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Tehran’s Grip: Strategic Calculation Over Impulse
Iran has invested heavily in Hezbollah, viewing the group as both a tool to project power and a crucial deterrent against Israel. Tehran’s leadership, wary of drawing Hezbollah into a premature or all-consuming war, has ordered the group to avoid major escalation unless absolutely necessary or as part of a broader, coordinated offensive involving several fronts. Experts on the ‘Axis of Resistance’ observe that the IRGC’s priority is to maintain Hezbollah’s deterrence value, leveraging its threat to Israel for both regional influence and as insurance against Western military pressure on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Lessons from the 2006 Lebanon War
The 2006 Lebanon War remains a defining episode for both Israel and Hezbollah. Initiated by a cross-border raid and abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, the war resulted in massive destruction in Lebanon and fatalities on both sides. Israel’s military response inflicted substantial material and personnel losses on Hezbollah, whose leadership nevertheless survived and claimed victory in the conflict’s aftermath, primarily due to the group’s continued capacity and Iran’s unwavering support. Since then, an uneasy but effective form of mutual deterrence has defined the northern border, with each side wary of igniting a wider conflict that could devastate Lebanese society and, potentially, alter the region’s power balance.
The View from Southern Lebanon: Hezbollah’s Entrenchment and Tactics
Over years, Hezbollah has deeply embedded itself in the fabric of southern Lebanon. Using civilian structures as cover, building ‘nature reserves’ for weapon storage, and integrating with local populations, the group has made it harder for Israel to strike without risk of collateral damage. Nevertheless, with advanced intelligence, Israel has successfully targeted key operating cells and logistics nodes. According to UN reports and independent investigators, the destruction in certain areas has been extensive—though by no means total—and has triggered debates within Lebanon about the true costs of Hezbollah’s presence.
Israeli Defense Posture and Civil Resilience
Israel’s own response is defined by a blend of military readiness and growing determination. Residents in the north have faced evacuations and disruptions, but the Iron Dome and new multi-layered defense systems have generally blunted the impact of Hezbollah’s sporadic rocket attacks. Israeli leaders stress that while Israel seeks to avoid another large-scale northern war, it will not permit the build-up or use of advanced weapons by Iranian proxies on any front. Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have pledged continued air operations and cross-border interdictions as part of Israel’s right to self-defense.
Preserving Deterrence: Iran’s Regional Gamesmanship
For Iran, Hezbollah is not only its most sophisticated proxy but also the linchpin in its ability to challenge both Israel and Western interests across the Middle East. The IRGC closely coordinates operations and strategic decisions with Hezbollah’s leadership, led by Hassan Nasrallah, ensuring that the use of force aligns with Tehran’s larger goals. The Lebanese front is held in reserve—a deterrent, a bargaining chip, and, if needed, an active participant in a future multi-front campaign. Intelligence sources in the United States and Europe underscore that Iran would only greenlight a full-scale conflict if it serves its wider strategic calculus—one that currently seeks to exhaust Israel, not provoke a decisive confrontation.
The Broader Conflict: ‘Axis of Resistance’ and Regional Escalation
The current war, imposed on Israel by Iran and its proxies, is marked by coordination among groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Israeli officials highlight the direct lines of funding, weaponry, and operational guidance running from Tehran to the frontlines—a reality that underscores why Hezbollah’s decisions are rarely autonomous. While the IDF continues to pressure Hezbollah in both open and clandestine operations, the larger confrontation remains shaped by Iranian objectives, not by local skirmishes or Israeli deterrence alone.
Conclusion: Strategic Restraint in a War of Attrition
The absence of major Hezbollah retaliation following Israel’s targeted assassinations and strikes does not signal defeat or acquiescence. Instead, it is a calculated holding action—determined in Tehran, informed by lessons of past wars, shaped by mutual deterrence, and sustained by the logic of attrition. Hezbollah retains dangerous capabilities, and its leaders are under no illusions about the group’s losses. But until Iran signals otherwise, it will wait, preserve its arsenal, and seek survival for the next phase of the long war against Israel—a conflict defined not by dramatic battles, but by the patient logic of survival, deterrence, and the relentless pursuit of Iran’s regional ambitions.
