BEIRUT—Lebanon stands at a dangerous crossroads, with mounting indicators of civil unrest and internal collapse raising the specter of renewed civil war. The nation’s brittle sectarian fabric, compounded by a catastrophic economic implosion and the growing influence of Iranian-backed Hezbollah, has alarmed government officials, analysts, and international observers alike. As militias consolidate power, the risk to regional stability—especially Israel’s northern frontier—has reached a critical threshold.
Lebanon’s polity is uniquely divided along religious lines, with parliamentary seats and governmental posts explicitly allocated to Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, Druze, and other minorities based on outdated demographic estimates. This fragile compromise has fostered chronic gridlock and clientelism. In recent years, a series of overlapping crises—including the 2019 currency collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Beirut port explosion, and waves of Syrian refugees—have eviscerated public confidence in state institutions.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), once regarded as a potential unifying force, now face dire budgetary shortfalls. Soldiers have been paid in devalued local currency, with many moonlighting as taxi drivers or leaving the ranks altogether. The army’s weakening has emboldened armed factions, above all Hezbollah, which openly defies government authority and operates a vast parallel security state in southern Lebanon, Beirut, the Beqaa valley, and beyond.
Since its formation in the early 1980s by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah has steadily consolidated its position as Lebanon’s most formidable military and political actor. Through a mixture of clientelistic social services, intimidation, and relentless propaganda, Hezbollah has succeeded in presenting itself as the defender of Lebanon’s Shiite community, while serving as Tehran’s main lever in the Levantine theater.
The terror group’s arsenal dwarfs that of the Lebanese military. Western and Israeli intelligence estimate that Hezbollah possesses over 150,000 projectiles of varying range and sophistication, many stored in residential areas in stark violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Iranian advisors, funding, and equipment bolster its capabilities.
Hezbollah’s self-declared “resistance axis” includes not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza but also pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis of Yemen. In the wake of Hamas’s October 7th massacre—the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust—Hezbollah has accelerated cross-border attacks on Israeli communities, directly escalating the Iran-imposed war against Israel and threatening to ignite a multi-front conflict.
Lebanon’s mounting instability has revived fears of civil war. Recent months have seen an alarming uptick in armed confrontations between rival militias in mixed Sunni, Shiite, and Christian enclaves, along with targeted assassinations, kidnappings, and sectarian incitement. Organized crime and terror groups exploit the lawlessness, and Hezbollah’s efforts to tighten its grip on government, judiciary, and security apparatuses are fueling public outrage.
A particularly grave scenario would arise from a miscalculation or escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border. With tens of thousands of internally displaced in northern Israel following Hezbollah rocket barrages, the IDF has repeatedly warned of a decisive military operation if terror attacks persist. Such a conflict would not only devastate Lebanon’s battered infrastructure but could also fracture the country’s delicate sectarian order, as different communities jockey for power and blame.
For Israel, the northern theater represents one of the most severe threats since its founding. The October 7th massacre exposed the cost of underestimating terror networks armed, trained, and directed by Iran. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faces an unenviable choice: absorb repeated attacks—risking civilian casualties and strategic paralysis—or launch preemptive, large-scale operations that could entangle Lebanon in nationwide chaos.
Israel has consistently emphasized its right to self-defense and the moral distinction between a sovereign state protecting its citizens and terror organizations hiding behind civilians. IDF strikes in Lebanon have focused on high-value Hezbollah targets, and the Israeli government has repeatedly called on the international community to enforce UN resolutions demanding the removal of armed groups from southern Lebanon.
The unfolding crisis in Lebanon cannot be understood in isolation. It is part of a broader Iranian strategy to encircle Israel—deploying proxies and client militias in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Yemen and, through Hezbollah, holding Beirut’s stability hostage. While the Biden administration has called for restraint, U.S. deterrence in the region has visibly eroded. French and European diplomatic efforts have yielded little leverage over Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors.
The internal collapse of Lebanon would represent a strategic windfall for Tehran, allowing for further militarization of the Mediterranean coast and increased threat to Israeli security—a scenario the Israel Defense Forces under its new Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, are determined to prevent.
Ordinary Lebanese, battered by hyperinflation, mass unemployment, and infrastructural collapse, are increasingly pawns in a wider geopolitical contest. Armed groups smuggle fuel, weapons, and narcotics, and criminal networks operate with near impunity. For Christian and Sunni factions, fears of permanent marginalization have triggered renewed calls for external intervention or even partition.
The presence of over a million Syrian refugees and tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians has strained resources and inflamed tensions. The historic Maronite-Muslim power-sharing compromise, once lauded as a rare Middle Eastern success story, now appears fatally undermined.
Analysts warn that, barring a dramatic turnaround, the situation is likely to deteriorate further. Key triggers for a wider civil conflict include a collapse of the Lebanese lira, cutoff of international aid, an Israeli-Hezbollah war, or renewed assassinations of prominent leaders or journalists. Hezbollah’s near-total impunity, both in the south and in government, renders meaningful reform almost impossible under current conditions.
Should Lebanon descend into civil war, the consequences for Israel and the region could be dire. A breakdown of order would swell refugee flows, embolden terror networks, and draw in external actors with competing agendas. Israel’s strategic imperative remains the deterrence of Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons, and the containment of chaos across the border.
Lebanon’s trajectory today is a stark warning of the catastrophic consequences of allowing terror groups to entrench themselves in fragile states. The growing specter of civil war is as much the product of Iranian expansionism and Western complacency as it is of Lebanon’s own dysfunctional politics. For Israel, the lesson is clear: vigilance and preparedness on the northern front are more urgent than ever, not just for self-defense but to ensure that the forces of terror do not plunge an entire region into wider conflict.
