BEIRUT — With tensions mounting along the Israel–Lebanon border, Lebanese President Michel Aoun recently insisted that the Lebanese army is fully deployed along the frontier and is capable of maintaining national security. These assurances, aimed at both domestic and international audiences, are at odds with the deteriorating reality in southern Lebanon. For years, Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terror group, has operated with near-complete autonomy across the border region, repeatedly violating Lebanese sovereignty and the dictates of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), officially tasked with control over the country’s borders, operate under severe constraints. In many areas, especially in the south, Hezbollah outmatches or overshadows the army’s presence. Field reports confirm that Hezbollah controls checkpoints, maintains a sophisticated logistical infrastructure, and deploys forces in close proximity to the Israeli border. Meanwhile, United Nations peacekeepers (UNIFIL) regularly note the proliferation of arms and the construction of military installations in civilian areas—direct contraventions of the intent of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates only the state military bear arms in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s dominance is no secret. With an arsenal estimated at 150,000 rockets and a network of underground tunnels and outposts funded and supplied by Iran, the group openly challenges Lebanese sovereignty and regional stability. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, makes little effort to hide the group’s alignment with Iranian interests or its objective of threatening Israel’s security. Despite claims by Lebanese officials that only the state may bear arms, Hezbollah operates as a parallel army, regularly launching attacks against Israeli territory from villages and fields in southern Lebanon.
Regional tensions escalated sharply in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, massacre—the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust—when Hamas-led terrorists from Gaza murdered over 1,200 Israeli civilians. The attack set off a series of escalations by Hezbollah, which launched rockets and missiles into northern Israel while sending reconnaissance and commando teams across the Blue Line. These actions form part of a larger Iranian strategy to surround and destabilize Israel using proxies and allied militias from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Despite clear evidence of this threat, Lebanese political leaders maintain public statements suggesting national unity and control. The Lebanese state, fragmented by sectarian divisions and political deadlock, has been unable—or unwilling—to confront Hezbollah’s entrenched position. Agreements and resolutions aimed at restoring sovereign control remain largely unenforced. State officials, including the president, often depend on uneasy alliances with Hezbollah to maintain power, further undercutting prospects for genuine reform or disarmament.
For Israeli defense authorities, the situation presents a grave and persistent security challenge. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has underscored the IDF’s readiness to respond forcefully to any escalation. Since October 2023, Israel has increased its military deployments, modernized fortifications, and enhanced surveillance along the northern border, recognizing that Hezbollah’s rocket barrages and cross-border operations represent an extension of Iran’s regional ambitions. The Iron Dome air defense system, along with a combination of ground forces and intelligence assets, stands as a deterrent against further aggression.
Lebanese civilians are often caught in the crossfire—both literally and figuratively—between Hezbollah and the IDF. Human rights organizations have documented the placement of rockets, arms depots, and command centers within residential buildings, schools, and mosques. Such tactics not only invite civilian casualties but also violate the laws of armed conflict by using noncombatants as shields. Dissent among Lebanese citizens is generally subdued, dampened by the risk of reprisals from armed militias loyal to Iran.
International efforts to resolve the crisis have largely stalled. The United States, France, and the United Nations have repeatedly called for Lebanon to comply with existing agreements, but the failure to disarm Hezbollah and restore full state control undermines these efforts. As Hezbollah continues its military build-up, the specter of a wider confrontation grows. Inaction by the Lebanese government, sustained denial of reality, and the tolerance of an armed power outside state authority leave the nation exposed to both internal instability and regional conflict.
The path to durable peace requires credible Lebanese leadership willing to enforce disarmament, reclaim sovereignty, and resist external manipulation. Until then, Israeli security imperatives—grounded in the duty to defend its citizens—will continue to dictate a posture of vigilance and, when necessary, decisive force. International stakeholders must recognize the root cause of ongoing instability: the unchecked armament and regional agenda of Iran’s terrorist proxies on Israel’s borders. Anything less misrepresents the nature of the conflict and endangers hopes for a more peaceful future.
