A new report by the Alma Research and Education Center has raised serious concerns about the infiltration of Hezbollah loyalists into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), questioning the military’s ability to enforce the ceasefire agreement with Israel. The findings highlight the growing “Shi’itization” of the LAF, a process that has led to deepening ties between the Lebanese military and the Iranian-backed terror group, ultimately compromising Lebanon’s sovereignty and security.
Lebanon’s Leadership vs. Reality on the Ground
Despite Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s recent statements claiming that “only the state will be responsible for security”, the report suggests that Hezbollah’s influence within the military is stronger than ever. While Aoun is actively lobbying for renewed Saudi and U.S. aid to the LAF, analysts argue that his claims are merely rhetoric designed to appease Western and Arab allies.
A Military Compromised from Within
Over the years, Lebanon’s military has undergone a significant demographic shift due to the cessation of mandatory conscription and broader population changes. The decline in Christian recruitment has been accompanied by a surge in Shi’ite enlistment, increasing Hezbollah’s ability to embed loyalists within the ranks of the army. According to the report, there is already a high probability that Shi’ite officers and soldiers form the majority of the LAF, further deepening Hezbollah’s control.
Hezbollah’s Growing Influence Over the LAF
The Alma report highlights multiple instances in which the Lebanese army has either failed to enforce international agreements or has actively collaborated with Hezbollah:
- Failure to Enforce Border Security: On January 26, the official expiration date of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, the LAF did not prevent Hezbollah operatives and Lebanese civilians from infiltrating areas where the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were deployed. The inaction was attributed to the LAF’s unwillingness—or inability—to confront Hezbollah.
- Tactical Cooperation with Hezbollah: The family ties between Hezbollah operatives and LAF soldiers increase the likelihood that Hezbollah will exploit the LAF as a human shield, a logistical support network, or even a direct proxy force.
- Leaked Military Equipment: The report warns that Western military aid to the LAF has repeatedly found its way into Hezbollah’s hands. U.S. and European-supplied anti-tank missiles, surveillance equipment, and even armored personnel carriers have allegedly been transferred to the terror group.
A Future Proxy Force for Hezbollah?
If this trend continues, the report warns that the Lebanese army could eventually cease to function as an independent national military. Instead, it may evolve into a fully integrated proxy of Hezbollah, eliminating any remaining distinction between the Lebanese state and Iran’s regional terror network.
Western Aid: Strengthening Lebanon or Hezbollah?
For the past two decades, the U.S. has provided over $3 billion in aid to the LAF, believing that strengthening Lebanon’s military would counterbalance Hezbollah’s influence. However, the Alma report challenges this assumption, arguing that much of the aid has ultimately benefited Hezbollah rather than limiting its power.
The latest U.S. aid package, valued at $95 million, is intended to support the LAF’s deployment in southern Lebanon, where it is supposed to maintain stability and prevent Hezbollah from rearming. However, critics argue that the LAF is neither willing nor able to challenge Hezbollah, rendering the aid ineffective at best—and counterproductive at worst.
What Needs to Change?
The report suggests that international donors must reconsider their approach to Lebanon’s military, recommending several measures to curb Hezbollah’s growing influence:
- Ensure that Shi’ite officers are not stationed in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from using the LAF as a shield.
- Impose strict oversight on military aid to prevent further leakage of Western weapons to Hezbollah.
- Support policies that isolate Hezbollah from Lebanon’s state institutions and limit Iran’s financial influence.
Given the LAF’s compromised position, Israel has no choice but to remain on high alert in the north. While the IDF has withdrawn from most positions in southern Lebanon, it continues to monitor Hezbollah’s activities closely.
Israeli security analysts warn that ongoing airstrikes targeting Hezbollah commanders are a necessary but temporary solution. As long as Hezbollah maintains control over Lebanon’s security forces, it will continue to threaten regional stability.
Lebanon’s leadership is trying to reassure the international community that its military remains a neutral and independent force. However, the realities on the ground tell a different story. The growing Shi’itization of the LAF, its operational cooperation with Hezbollah, and the leakage of Western military aid have left Lebanon’s security forces compromised.
As Hezbollah continues to entrench itself within the Lebanese state, the question remains: Is the Lebanese army still a national force, or has it already become Hezbollah’s unofficial military wing? The answer will determine the future of Lebanon’s security—and the stability of the entire region.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
