Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Riyadh early Monday has intensified speculation about the trajectory of Israeli-Arab relations and the broader U.S. role in countering Iranian influence across the Middle East. This visit, Trump’s most significant foreign engagement since leaving office, is expected to focus on Saudi-Israeli normalization, counterterrorism cooperation, and the evolving security landscape as Iran continues to bolster its network of proxies and terror groups in the region.
The trip comes at a pivotal time for Israel, following the October 7th massacre perpetrated by Hamas terrorists in Gaza—a brutal atrocity universally recognized as the deadliest act of antisemitic violence since the Holocaust. In the wake of this attack, Israel has intensified its military and diplomatic efforts to dismantle the Iranian-backed axis of resistance, which includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Syria and Iraq.
Key Israeli and American officials see Trump’s visit as an opportunity to restore momentum to the Abraham Accords process and unlock new cooperation with Saudi Arabia, the region’s most influential Arab state. Israeli assessments emphasize the urgent need to formalize an alliance with Riyadh, both to deter further Iranian aggression and to establish a solid front against regional instability.
Strategic Objectives in Riyadh
Trump’s expected meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will reportedly focus on a wide-ranging agenda: enhancement of U.S.-Gulf-Israel security ties, developing mechanisms for intelligence sharing, strengthening joint missile defense, countering cyber threats, and advancing Saudi investment in post-conflict reconstruction should a Gaza ceasefire stabilize the situation. The possible opening for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is seen as a historic window that, if seized, could reshape regional geopolitics for a generation.
Israeli officials have clarified that normalization talks are closely linked to security demands: robust guarantees for Israeli safety, coordinated action against Iranian arms smuggling, and international support for efforts to recover hostages abducted by Hamas terrorists. The fate of these hostages, who include Israeli citizens and foreign nationals, remains a central moral and political issue, with Jerusalem firmly stating that any agreement must distinguish between victims and convicted terrorists—eschewing any false symmetry in exchanges.
Iranian-Backed Threats and Israel’s Response
Iran’s strategy of regional destabilization via proxy warfare remains relentless. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) finances, arms, and directs terror groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, posing existential and strategic threats to Israel and threatening the interests of Saudi Arabia and other moderate Gulf states. Ongoing rocket and drone attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen underscore the growing sophistication and reach of these groups. Israeli security doctrine, led by IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, has accordingly shifted toward multi-front preparedness and unprecedented military coordination with regional partners.
Diplomatic analysts highlight the significance of Trump’s trip: his administration was instrumental in brokering the original Abraham Accords, which realigned the region’s diplomatic and economic ties in Israel’s favor. By deepening Israel’s partnerships with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, and now potentially with Saudi Arabia, the U.S. aims to deny Iran the power to disrupt trade and fuel terror across the region.
Hostages and Humanitarian Concerns
The ongoing captivity of over 100 hostages in Gaza, most of whom were seized during the October 7th massacre, remains a critical focus of Israel’s negotiations and military operations. Unsubstantiated claims and attempted moral equivalences by adversarial voices are categorically rejected by Jerusalem. The status of these abductees, held under inhumane conditions, stands in stark legal and moral contrast to the convicted terrorists occasionally considered for exchange—a distinction Israeli leaders insist remain clear in all diplomatic discussions.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza is also central to American and Saudi calculations. Both countries, while supporting Israel’s right to self-defense, have pressed for strictly monitored aid corridors that prevent diversion by Hamas and guarantee delivery to Gaza civilians. Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries have facilitated indirect negotiations, though no durable arrangement has so far secured the unconditional release of the hostages.
Normalization and Security Architecture
The possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization is not solely a function of U.S. diplomatic pressure; it is rooted in overlapping security, economic, and technological interests. Riyadh’s ambitious Vision 2030 economic reform agenda and Israel’s innovation-driven economy are seen by experts as complementary, with significant potential for joint ventures in defense technology, energy, water security, and infrastructure. Israeli military sources indicate that a formal accord could enable the integration of advanced missile-defense systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling across Gulf states, amplifying regional deterrence against Iranian missiles and drones.
Saudi Arabia’s calculations are shaped by both internal dynamics and regional threats. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces balancing acts between reform and traditionalist components within the kingdom, between public sympathies and pragmatic state interests. Iranian activity in Yemen and the Red Sea, as well as the persistent threat from Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border, highlight the shared security dilemmas that Trump’s visit seeks to address.
Broader Geopolitical Context
Internationally, Trump’s reemergence as a mediator is being closely monitored by European, Russian, and Chinese actors. Moscow and Beijing continue to deepen ties with Iran, seeking to expand their influence and expand arms sales at the U.S.’s expense. In response, the U.S.-led effort to consolidate moderate Arab-Israeli coalitions is crucial to restoring deterrence and upholding broader Western interests.
In Israel, public sentiment strongly favors deeper alignment with Saudi Arabia under robust American security guarantees. The Netanyahu government, with support from military and intelligence leadership, regards opportunities for expanded security cooperation and formal normalization with Riyadh as nothing less than transformative for the region’s future.
Looking Ahead
Trump’s Riyadh visit, while heavy with symbolism, represents a substantive test of U.S. diplomatic leverage and the shared resolve of Israel and the Arab world to block Iran’s continued pursuit of regional domination. Negotiations remain sensitive, with outcomes far from guaranteed, and the human cost of ongoing terror and hostage-taking continues to shape public and political priorities. However, if the agenda set in Riyadh leads to new breakthroughs, it could usher in a historic shift away from decades of enmity toward a future of partnership, security, and hope for the Middle East.
As the region awaits the outcome of these high-level discussions, Israel remains steadfast: defending its citizens, ensuring justice for those murdered and abducted by Hamas, and seeking—through American partnership and possible Saudi accord—a regional order grounded in peace, security, and the defense against terror.
