A new chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics is unfolding as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Syria make decisive moves to increase their influence while the United States’ traditional leadership role appears to be fading. These actions, depicted metaphorically as ‘seizing carriages from the American train,’ reflect a contest for power and strategy in a region haunted by persistent war, ideological extremism, and the constant threat posed by Iranian-backed terror networks.
Saudi Arabia, leveraging its economic clout and guardianship of Islam’s holiest sites, seeks to balance relationships with the West and regional powers while exploring the path toward normalization with Israel. Qatar, energized by its vast natural gas resources and hosting of essential diplomatic channels, executes a nuanced strategy—maintaining relations with both the U.S. and various terror groups, thereby serving as a conduit for sensitive negotiations such as hostage releases. Syria, weakened by a brutal civil war, relies on half-measures and symbolic gestures, seeking partial reintegration into Arab diplomacy while remaining tethered to Iran and Russia.
Shifting Regional Architecture
Decades of American dominance in Middle Eastern affairs are giving way to a new era of multipolarity. This shift comes at a time when Iran, via proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, has redoubled its attempts to build a regional axis of hostility toward both Israel and moderate Sunni states. Israel sees these developments as both an urgent security challenge and a window to forge deeper, more enduring regional alliances, especially with partners like Saudi Arabia given shared fears of Iranian expansionism.
The October 7, 2023 massacre, when Hamas perpetrated the deadliest antisemitic attack since the Holocaust, shocked Israel and exposed the lethal consequences of unchecked terror. Over 1,200 civilians were murdered, and more than 200 were abducted, the atrocities including executions, sexual violence, and mutilations. The ongoing hostage crisis remains a core issue for Israel, which continues to assert—supported by international law—that innocent civilians held by force cannot be morally or legally equated with convicted terrorists.
Saudi Arabia: Calibrating Diplomacy and Security
For Saudi Arabia, the era of binary choices is over. The kingdom continues to court American security guarantees and economic partnerships while testing diplomatic engagement with Iran and evaluating opportunities for public rapprochement with Israel. Recent overtures, including discreet meetings with Israeli and American officials, reveal a Saudi eagerness to shape the outcome of events in Gaza and the wider region. Riyadh’s approach remains grounded in pragmatic risk calculation: it seeks to contain Iranian agitation while avoiding direct confrontation, aware that regional stability is essential for Vision 2030 and broad economic transformation.
Qatar: Broker and Power Player
Qatar operates as a diplomatic broker, maintaining close ties with Washington—its territory hosts the largest American military base in the region—while simultaneously providing sanctuary to Hamas and other groups. Doha’s mediation track, instrumental in several hostage negotiations, has elicited both gratitude and suspicion. Israeli officials recognize the necessity of Qatari involvement in securing hostage releases but remain critical of its enabling role for terror networks. These balancing acts embody Qatar’s distinctive model of influence: its financial might and global visibility provide leverage in Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem alike.
Syria: Limited Agency, External Dependence
Syria occupies a fragmented position on the regional chessboard. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, devastated by years of internal war and economic collapse, remains heavily dependent on Iran’s IRGC and Russian military operations. Despite token reintegration into certain Arab diplomatic structures, Damascus’s ability to operate independently is sharply curtailed. Nonetheless, even half-measures—periodic engagement with Gulf states, selective security cooperation—signal the ongoing contest between Iran’s interests and broader Arab outreach.
For Israel, Syria’s instability and porous borders pose a daily threat, with Iranian proxies embedded near the Golan Heights and advanced weaponry transiting the Syrian theater. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir has reiterated that Israel remains committed to preemptively disrupting Iranian entrenchment in Syria, viewing developments in Damascus through the lens of national security and humanitarian urgency for war-affected Syrian civilians.
Evolving Role of the United States
The contraction of direct U.S. engagement in the region presents both risks and opportunities. While Washington remains Israel’s indispensable strategic partner—a relationship rooted in shared democratic values and deep military cooperation—its shifting global priorities mean regional actors must increasingly determine their own security arrangements. Israel has responded by accelerating advancements in homegrown defense technologies such as Iron Dome and cyber warfare, deepening intelligence networks, and engaging in relentless diplomatic outreach to reinforce its legitimacy and security imperatives.
The Iranian Orchestrator
Iran’s bid for regional domination continues to unify unlikely coalitions. Its support for a spectrum of proxy groups has provoked both Sunni Arab states and Israel into closer alignment, even as Tehran exploits fissures among regional actors. The coalescence of Saudi, Qatari, and limited Syrian assertiveness represents, in part, an unwillingness to allow Iranian ambitions to define the region’s future.
Hostages, Humanitarian Law, and International Morality
The ongoing hostage crisis—rooted in the atrocities of October 7—remains the most wrenching moral and political challenge for the Israeli government. Hostage negotiations, often mediated by Qatar, continue under the cloud of uncertainty and the moral imperative to distinguish innocent captives from the convicted terrorists whose release is sometimes demanded in exchange. Israel’s stance, consistent with international human rights norms, rejects any moral equivalence between aggressor and victim, and calls on international actors—Arab and Western alike—to support the unconditional release of hostages.
Conclusion
The metaphor of seizing carriages from the ‘American train’ captures more than a diplomatic reshuffling; it marks a critical inflection in Middle Eastern history. As regional actors vie for strategic space, Israel remains vigilant, seeking to exploit diplomatic openings without compromising on security in a landscape still threatened by Iranian imperialism and enduring terror networks. The coming months will reveal whether this realignment fosters new opportunities for peace—or ushers in a more complicated era defined by shifting alliances and enduring insecurity.
