Three months after the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria is once again plunged into violence, as remnants of the fallen dictatorship attempt to stage an armed uprising. Forces aligned with Iran and Russia, including former high-ranking officers of Assad’s military, have launched a rebellion in Tartus and Latakia, hoping to regain control over the country’s strategic coastal regions. For a brief period, rebel forces seized major highways, attacking both civilian and military vehicles, while fierce clashes erupted in the heart of Qardaha, the birthplace of former dictator Hafez al-Assad. Syria’s new security forces, dominated by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the jihadist faction led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—swiftly responded, arresting or killing dozens of insurgents. However, the situation remains far from stable, and the battle for Syria is far from over.
Despite their past loyalty to Assad, these insurgents have now rebranded themselves as defenders of Syria’s minorities, claiming to be resisting the rise of Islamist rule. Iranian and Russian-backed media have framed the rebellion as an uprising of Alawites, Druze, and Christians, attempting to portray Al-Jolani’s government as a threat to religious minorities. However, the reality is far different. Many of the officers leading this rebellion were direct enforcers of Assad’s brutal dictatorship, responsible for war crimes, mass executions, and the torture chambers of Sednaya Prison. Their sudden concern for Syria’s minorities is nothing more than a cynical attempt to gain international sympathy. The real motivation behind their actions is clear—Iran and Russia desperately need Syria to maintain their influence in the region. Without Syria, Iran loses its ability to control Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Russia risks losing its Mediterranean foothold, which is crucial for its military presence in the Middle East and Africa.
Caught in this web of regional power struggles, Israel has made a dangerous gamble, choosing to align itself with Russia’s campaign to “protect minorities and dismantle Syria.” The assumption that a permanently fractured Syria is in Israel’s best interest is deeply flawed. While Assad’s downfall has cut off a direct supply line to Hezbollah, Syria’s descent into complete lawlessness could prove even worse. The collapse of a central authority could turn Syria into a failed state even more chaotic than before, creating a breeding ground for arms trafficking, terrorism, and regional instability. Jordan has already suffered from Syria’s drug trade, and the consequences of a further deteriorating security situation will be felt for years to come.
Meanwhile, President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who has received diplomatic backing from several Arab nations, has strongly condemned the attempted coup. However, he faces a difficult reality—his own security forces, a patchwork of HTS fighters, former rebels, and local militias, are hardly a unified army. He is now tasked with imposing his authority over a force that is driven by revenge against the remnants of the Assad regime. The horrors uncovered in Sednaya Prison and other Assad-era torture sites have fueled a deep-seated desire for retribution, making it increasingly difficult for Sharaa to maintain order. As Iran and Russia continue to fund and organize uprisings, the challenge of stabilizing Syria will only grow harder.
Syria has never truly known political stability—except under regimes of terror and repression. The chaotic power struggles of the 1950s, when governments rose and fell every few months, may now be repeating themselves. Ironically, the only figure holding the country together at this moment is Ahmad al-Sharaa himself—a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, now attempting to forge a state out of militias, sectarian factions, and war-torn ruins. If his rule collapses, Syria risks plunging into an even darker abyss—one where global jihadists, Iranian militias, and Russian-backed warlords compete for control over the shattered remains of the country.
