The United States military has begun the process of withdrawing forces from its Conoco base in eastern Syria, a move that signals a shift in the broader regional military posture as Iranian-backed groups intensify their operations across the Levant. The withdrawal, confirmed by local sources and regional observers, is viewed by Western and Israeli defense analysts as a significant development in the ongoing confrontation between Western interests and Iran’s expanding influence in Syria and beyond.
Located in the oil-rich Deir ez-Zor Governorate, the Conoco base has served as a strategic U.S. outpost since the international coalition’s campaign against Islamic State (ISIS). Its primary purposes have included supporting operations against ISIS remnants, bolstering Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and acting as a deterrent to Iranian-allied militias and regime forces seeking to consolidate control over the area. The region’s significance is further amplified by its proximity to key energy assets and its position along established arms-smuggling routes linking Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
According to the Pentagon, the reduction of the American footprint in eastern Syria is part of a rebalancing of forces rather than a wholesale abandonment of the U.S. commitment to the fight against terrorism or efforts to contain Iranian expansion. Military sources stress that the United States remains committed to preventing both the resurgence of ISIS and the proliferation of Iranian-backed militias, some of which have targeted U.S. installations with escalating drone and rocket attacks since the outbreak of Israel’s Iron Swords War against Hamas in Gaza.
The timing of the withdrawal follows a surge in offensives by the so-called “axis of resistance,” a coalition of Iranian-directed groups that includes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, and other affiliated militias operating in Syria and Iraq. U.S. bases in both countries have experienced an uptick in coordinated attacks, which analysts attribute to Tehran’s strategy of pressuring Washington to reduce its regional presence, especially in the wake of recent escalations surrounding Israel and its ongoing military operations in Gaza following the October 7 massacre perpetrated by Hamas terrorists.
Israeli officials and defense strategists are monitoring the situation closely, warning that a diminished U.S. presence could embolden Iran to fill the resulting security void. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) consider Iranian entrenchment in Syria an existential threat, given Tehran’s ongoing efforts to establish weapons transfer corridors to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Such logistics routes have been used to smuggle advanced missiles, drones, and other weaponry, complicating Israel’s defense posture on its northern and southern borders.
Military analysts warn that with fewer U.S. forces on the ground, Iranian-backed groups—such as the Fatemiyoun, Zainebiyoun brigades, and segments of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU)—are positioned to expand control over eastern Syria. This could allow further integration of Syrian oil revenues into Iranian proxy finances and open additional terrorist transit routes to the Mediterranean, amplifying regional instability. The resultant security environment could also fuel a resurgence of ISIS activities as the SDF, whose resources are stretched thin, struggle to contain threats from multiple fronts.
The change in U.S. posture has regional repercussions beyond Syria. Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as Turkey and Russia—each deeply involved in the Syrian conflict—are recalibrating their strategies amid changing American commitments. European partners remain concerned that the weakening of Western influence could further destabilize the region and pose new humanitarian and security risks, including increased migration and the proliferation of terror networks targeting international interests.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government have consistently pressed for sustained American engagement in the region. Israeli officials point to the October 7 Hamas massacre—the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust—and the subsequent hostage crisis as stark reminders of the dangers posed by allowing Iranian-aligned forces to operate with impunity in neighboring states. The conflation of Iranian revolutionary doctrine with proxy terrorism continues to shape the realities of Israeli security policy and its broader regional alliances.
The moral and strategic clarity of Israel’s defense doctrine is further underscored by its insistence on the distinction between sovereign states defending citizens and terrorist entities perpetrating clandestine warfare. Israel maintains that the withdrawal of democratic allies creates avenues for terror networks, evidenced by the recurring atrocities, abductions, and weapons transfers that have plagued the region since Iranian expansion began to accelerate during the Syrian civil war.
In response to the U.S. withdrawal, the IDF has ramped up surveillance and readiness along the Golan Heights and interior borders, preparing for potential escalations involving IRGC affiliates. Defense Minister Israel Katz convened high-level briefings to assess the security implications and instructed military planners to prepare for a possible intensification of Iranian activities throughout Syria and Lebanon. These security adjustments complement ongoing Israeli air operations targeting Iranian weapons convoys and command infrastructure across Syria—actions that have frequently been attributed to Israel by foreign sources but rarely officially confirmed.
The developments at Conoco highlight the increasing complexity of regional combat theaters where state and non-state actors maneuver for strategic advantage. For Israel, the drawdown is not only a military concern but a test of Western resolve to confront the destabilizing ambitions of the Iranian regime and its proxies, who have openly threatened the existence of the Jewish state and the stability of moderate governments throughout the Middle East.
While the United States insists its commitment to regional security endures, the withdrawal from the Conoco base is emblematic of a wider reassessment of American force posture following a series of costly and politically contentious engagements across the Middle East. It presents Israel and its allies with difficult questions about long-term strategies to counter Iranian and terrorist expansion, while safeguarding civilian populations and preserving the fragile order established in the wake of ISIS’s defeat.
As Iran continues its quest to project power through its network of militias and terror groups, Western and regional actors must grapple with the implications of a reduced U.S. military footprint. Israel’s response—to strengthen deterrence, intensify intelligence sharing, and maintain military vigilance—reinforces its enduring commitment to self-defense and to confronting the spectrum of threats posed by the axis of resistance. In the evolving reality of eastern Syria and the broader region, the security of Israel and its partners rests on the ability to adapt to changing strategic circumstances, uphold moral distinctions between legitimate defense and terrorism, and ensure that the lessons of history remain at the center of policymaking.
