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Iran’s Expansionism Raises Tensions in Southern Syria, Threatening Israel

Sweida, the center of Syria’s Druze community in the country’s south, is experiencing mounting war tensions as the Syrian conflict’s regional dimensions deepen. Military movements, political agitation, and the presence of Iranian-backed forces—particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah—have heightened fears among local residents, placing Sweida at the intersection of local anxieties and the broader regional conflict imposed by Iran and its proxies.

Escalating Instability in Southern Syria

Historically, Sweida has maintained a posture of cautious neutrality amid Syria’s turmoil, balancing resistance to the Assad regime with efforts to avoid direct entanglement with local jihadist factions. However, this balance is now under threat. The October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre of Israeli civilians—a terror attack described as the deadliest antisemitic assault since the Holocaust—ignited a regional escalation. Iran, already heavily invested in Syria, intensified its support for hostile proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other militias in Syria. These groups have used southern Syria as a platform to increase pressure on Israel and Jordan, raising the stakes for Sweida’s residents.

Militia activities have been reported near Sweida, with IRGC-affiliated groups seeking to entrench themselves along strategic transit routes. The Syrian regime has shown flexibility to the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah forces to leverage their support against local dissent and regional adversaries, compounding insecurity for civilians.

Iranian Strategy and Proxy Entrenchment

Iran’s strategy in Syria is shaped by a doctrine of regional encirclement—seeking to build land corridors for smuggling weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas, expand intelligence collection on Israel, and facilitate cross-border attacks. With the Assad regime increasingly dependent on Iranian aid, southern Syria has become a focus of Iranian expansionism.

For the people of Sweida, this means the arrival of unfamiliar fighters, new checkpoints, arms caches, and growing militarization. Reports from the area indicate clandestine recruitment of local youths into militias funded and trained by Iran and Hezbollah, using economic incentives amid Syria’s collapse. The presence of radical elements has also brought a wave of propaganda and incitement against Israel, aiming to stoke local grievances and tether Sweida to Iran’s axis of resistance.

Israel’s Strategic Dilemma

These developments have deepened Israel’s security concerns. In recent months, Israeli forces have launched targeted strikes in Syria to disrupt the supply and deployment of advanced Iranian weaponry and prevent the opening of a new anti-Israel front from Syrian territory. As explained in IDF briefings and statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, Israel’s military actions are defensive, aimed at protecting its civilian population from Iranian-sponsored terror.

Israel has repeatedly affirmed that it holds the Syrian regime responsible for permitting Iranian and Hezbollah activities within its borders. While seeking to avoid escalation, Israel remains prepared to act when irrefutable intelligence indicates direct threats—whether missile transfers, terror infiltration, or command operations originating in southern Syria.

Impact for Sweida’s Civilian Community

For Sweida’s estimated 500,000 residents, the war atmosphere is translating to daily hardships. Local reports cite arbitrary detentions, restrictions on movement, armed patrols, and a climate of fear. Traditional Druze leadership and community networks are under strain as residents caught between loyalty to heritage, opposition to Assad, and the rising tide of Iranian manipulation. Many worry that direct confrontation between Israel and Iran’s proxies could transform Sweida into an active conflict zone, with civilians paying the highest price.

At the same time, regional countries—including Jordan and Gulf States—have voiced concern about the expansion of Iranian and proxy militias near their borders. The risk is that Sweida, traditionally insulated from sectarian violence and extremism, could become another casualty in the broader campaign Tehran is waging against Israel and its Western allies.

International Response and Geopolitical Stakes

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has endorsed Israel’s right to self-defense and undertaken measures, including sanctions and intelligence support, to constrict the flow of arms to Iranian-backed factions in Syria. However, the complexity of Syria’s war and continued Russian involvement have frustrated broader international efforts to roll back Iranian influence.

Regional experts stress that allowing Sweida to become a permanent base for anti-Israel forces aligned with the IRGC and Hezbollah would represent a major escalation, threatening wider destabilization. At stake are not just the lives of local residents, but the fragile balance of power across the Levant.

Historical Background: Sweida’s Place in the Syrian Conflict

Sweida and its Druze population have historically pursued autonomy and avoided entanglement in Syria’s fiercest fighting. The Druze community has resisted conscription by both regime and opposition forces, relying on strict community discipline and connections with the international Druze diaspora. With Damascus weakened and Iran’s proxies growing bolder, Sweida’s future is increasingly dependent on shifting external powers.

The city’s strategic position—close to the Israeli and Jordanian borders—has always made it a prize for regional actors. But never before has the risk of spillover conflict with Israel or neighboring Jordan been greater. The threat posed by Iranian-backed terror organizations is now central to the region’s security calculations.

Conclusion

In sum, the war atmosphere in Sweida is a microcosm of the Iranian-imposed conflict playing out across the Middle East. As Iranian-backed groups cement their hold in southern Syria, the threat to Israel, the stability of Syria’s border communities, and the broader region has grown acute. For Sweida’s Druze community and its neighbors, the coming months will be characterized by vigilance, uncertainty, and an urgent need for regional and international efforts to stem the tide of terror and preserve the possibility of local self-determination, stability, and peace.

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