In northwest Syria, a dangerous power shift has taken shape as local extremist groups increasingly rally under the military and administrative control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. This coalition consolidates control over the Idlib region, raising grave concerns for regional stability and Israel’s security. Though Jolani has attempted to rebrand himself as a pragmatic ruler, the unchanging core of his leadership remains steeped in violence and terror.
HTS’s roots trace back to al-Qaeda’s ambitions to exploit Syria’s civil war, with Jolani originally serving as leader of Jabhat al-Nusra. Despite rebranding to distance itself from al-Qaeda and projecting a facade of governance and moderation, HTS adheres to its established jihadist tenets. This repackaging is widely recognized by Israeli, American, and European security officials as a calculated strategy, not a genuine ideological transformation. Reports from U.S., Israeli, and UN monitors emphasize that HTS functions as a regional node in a broader network aligned with Iranian interests and the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including militant organizations from Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza.
Recent intelligence and field photographs indicate local jihadist groups, including remnants of al-Qaeda–inspired outfits, are joining HTS on the battlefield. These alliances are justified by leaders as necessary for stability but are in fact rooted in shared ideological commitment and the ambition to dominate the territory. Everyday life under their control remains harsh: arbitrary detentions, suppression of dissent, and extrajudicial violence are documented by humanitarian agencies and independent monitors. The territory, while organized under the semblance of civil governance, is propped up by a persistent infrastructure of terror tactics.
The strategic implications reach well beyond Syria. Idlib’s proximity to Israel’s northern border rings alarm bells for security planners in Jerusalem. Israeli military and intelligence authorities, under the leadership of Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, view the strengthening of this terror coalition as a direct, persistent threat. Past incidents have demonstrated that extremist groups use Syria’s chaotic north as a launchpad for attacks into Israel, Jordan, and Turkey.
The alignment of HTS with Iran-backed organizations intensifies the risk. Intelligence sharing, joint operations, and mutual support between HTS, Iranian elements, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other affiliated militias create a destabilizing axis. This interconnected framework played a role in the October 7, 2023, massacre by Hamas in Israel—a stark reminder of the lethal capabilities and ambitions of regional terror networks.
Jolani has sought broader legitimacy through media engagement and promises of responsible governance, targeting Western policy circles in hopes of gaining de facto acceptance. However, security analysts and field investigators consistently find little substantive change. The core agenda of HTS—embracing terror, antisemitism, and authoritarian rule—remains unaltered, confirmed by on-the-ground realities and the testimony of civilians subject to their rule.
Humanitarian organizations continuously report that aid meant for civilians is repurposed to sustain terror operations or withheld as a tool of control. Schools and hospitals remain vulnerable, and civilian infrastructure is repeatedly caught in the crossfire or sabotaged by internal power struggles among armed factions. The international community’s efforts at stabilization are undermined by HTS’s dominance, leaving Gaza residents at the mercy of arbitrary justice and violence.
Iran’s intervention, both through proxies and direct support, prolongs instability and empowers these extremist organizations. Tehran’s strategy is to maintain a fractured Syria, where control can be exerted through militias and aligned entities rather than any semblance of national reconstruction or peace. This posture directly endangers Israel and complicates any potential for a peaceful regional order.
Policy debates in the West about potential engagement with Jolani’s regime have surfaced, driven by fears of an ISIS revival and Assad’s brutality. Israeli and U.S. officials, however, are adamant that engaging HTS or accepting its local rule would legitimize a terrorist regime and multiply the danger to regional and global security. The evidence underscores that rebranded or not, HTS and its coalition of allies remain focused on violent destabilization, threatening not only Israel but neighboring states and Western interests.
The trajectory of Idlib under Jolani’s rule exemplifies the persistent challenge of terrorism dressed in new forms. Neither shifting alliances nor superficial image changes have altered the underlying reality: HTS embodies a continuity of extremism that fundamentally rejects coexistence or pluralism, maintained through coercion, propaganda, and brute force.
For Israel and its partners, the only viable response remains steadfast vigilance and clarity about the actors involved—a defense not only of territorial integrity but of the possibility for security and peace in the region.
