DAMASCUS – Syria’s regime leadership issued a renewed message of defiance this week, insisting that the country will continue to defend its territory and population even as its military resources remain deeply depleted. The pronouncement, made by Hassan al-Sharaa, patriarch to regime figure Bashar al-Julani, reflects the persistence—and desperation—of a government battered by years of war, external intervention, and economic collapse.
Syria’s assertion comes in the context of rising regional tensions, punctuated by Iran’s entrenchment of military assets on Syrian soil and consecutive Israeli strikes aimed at forestalling further advances by Tehran and its proxies. With the escalation of Israel’s security operations along its northern frontier, and in the wake of unprecedented terror attacks by Iranian-backed forces, the Syrian regime remains an axis point in a conflict whose consequences extend far beyond its borders.
The Syrian Regime: Aspirations Challenged by Reality
Official messaging from Damascus continues to signal a willingness to confront threats by any means available, echoing claims of national resilience. Yet these pronouncements mask an uncomfortable reality. Over a decade of civil war has stripped the Syrian Arab Army of much of its long-range artillery, air force, and sophisticated weaponry. Large stretches of territory remain outside regime control, administered either by non-state militias, Kurdish forces, or directly by Iranian and Hezbollah elements under the oversight of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The Syrian state’s survival, particularly since 2015, has depended heavily on the intervention of Russia and, most pertinently, Iran. IRGC commanders and elite Hezbollah operatives are positioned across southern and central Syria, using the territory as a base for logistics, weapons transfer, and as a strategic buffer against Israel. Intelligence briefings from Israel and independent military analysts consistently confirm that Iranian arms convoys and proxy networks in Syria constitute a direct threat to Israel’s northern security.
Israel’s Self-Defense Doctrine and Ongoing Operations
For Israel, the transformation of Syria into a corridor for Iranian military activity represents an unacceptable escalation. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, has emphasized the defensive, preventive nature of its operations. Nearly every week, Israeli defense sources report targeted airstrikes on regime and Iranian infrastructure within Syria. These missions, directed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) under Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, aim to interrupt missile transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon, neutralize drone and missile production sites, and deter further IRGC entrenchment.
Israel’s approach, defined by the ongoing ‘Campaign Between Wars’ (MABAM), is rooted in preventing Syria from becoming the staging ground for future assaults, as seen on October 7, 2023 when Hamas terrorists perpetrated the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust. That attack has since emboldened Iranian-backed networks, prompting coordinated attacks against Israeli civilian and military targets, and drawing Syrian territory once more into the vortex of regional war.
Civilian Toll and Humanitarian Hardship
Meanwhile, Syria’s civilian population bears the cost of this endless conflict. Fourteen years of war have left at least half a million Syrians dead and displaced millions more, with cities such as Aleppo, Homs, and Idlib becoming bywords for devastation. Siege tactics by both regime and Iranian-backed militias have led to starvation and ongoing humanitarian crises, compounded by international sanctions and the destruction of Syria’s infrastructure. Economic collapse is near total, with extreme currency devaluation and rampant unemployment fueling desperation.
International agencies, including the United Nations, repeatedly cite restrictions imposed by the regime and its allies as major barriers to delivering humanitarian relief. In areas where regime authority is weakest, IRGC and Hezbollah militants leverage food and aid as recruitment and control mechanisms, further entrenching Iranian influence at the expense of Syrian sovereignty and stability.
The Iranian Axis and Syria’s Regional Role
Syria plays a central role in Iran’s strategy to threaten Israel through the “Axis of Resistance,” a network comprising Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The bulk of advanced weaponry transferred to Hezbollah continues to transit through Syria, with IRGC logistical hubs in the Damascus and Homs regions frequently targeted by Israeli strikes. Since October 2023, these operations have intensified, as Israel seeks to intercept weapons shipments and prevent the establishment of permanent Iranian bases near the Golan Heights.
While Syrian officials publicly champion their participation in this axis, the reality on the ground reflects growing frustration among Syrians with the preeminence of foreign agendas on their soil. Widespread economic hardship, a fracturing social contract, and the visible presence of foreign military personnel deepen popular resentment and stoke instability.
Russian and American Dimensions
Syria’s strategic landscape is further complicated by external powers. Though Russia’s priorities have shifted since its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow remains a decisive actor in Damascus’ calculations, controlling key airbases and exercising de facto veto power over international engagement in Syria. Meanwhile, a small contingent of U.S. forces continues to operate in eastern Syria, focusing on countering Islamic State remnants and, by extension, monitoring Iranian activities.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, maintains firm support for Israel’s right to self-defense and has repeatedly warned the Assad regime and its patrons against participating in or enabling hostile actions against Israeli targets. American and European sanctions, as well as diplomatic isolation, persistently constrain the Syrian government’s options for recovery or effective governance.
Risks of Wider Escalation
The converging interests of Israel, Iran, Syria, and outside actors create a potent risk of escalation. The ongoing cycles of attacks and reprisals threaten not just regional order, but also the fragile humanitarian situation within Syria. For Israel, the imperative to act decisively against terror threats emanating from across its borders remains unchanged. For Syria’s regime, each new pledge of resistance both asserts sovereignty and underscores dependence upon Iran and Hezbollah—a dynamic that could yet ignite wider hostilities.
Outlook
Syria’s official rhetoric of resistance, delivered in the context of severe material limitations and foreign reliance, encapsulates the paradox now defining Damascus. The government’s sovereignty is more asserted than actual, exercised largely through proxies and at the mercy of outside powers. As Israeli operations continue in pursuit of genuine security and as Iranian entrenchment accelerates, Syria’s fate remains tethered to decisions made far from the streets of Damascus, filtered through the prism of a larger war imposed by Iran and its network of regional proxies.
