In an unprecedented development reflective of shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, credible sources reveal that Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the Syrian jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has approached the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump with an offer to normalize relations with Israel and grant American access to Syrian oil and gas reserves, in return for the lifting of crippling U.S. sanctions. This overture underscores the volatility and rapidly evolving alliances in a region shaped by the ongoing war against Iran and its network of proxy forces.
Key Figures and Factional Realities
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, once a senior figure within al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, now heads HTS, which retains control over much of the Idlib province in northwest Syria. HTS is considered a terror organization by the United States, Israel, and other Western powers, despite its efforts to rebrand as a more pragmatic Sunni Islamist authority distinct from radical global jihadist movements. Throughout Syria’s multifaceted civil war, HTS has vied for dominance with both Bashar al-Assad’s Iranian-supported regime and rival jihadist factions, balancing oppressive internal rule with intermittent diplomatic initiatives.
Syria’s Fragmentation and the Role of Iran
Syria’s protracted conflict has left the country partitioned among competing armed groups, state actors, and foreign powers. Iran, alongside its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated Shiite militias, remains deeply embedded within Syrian territory, bolstering Assad and establishing forward operating bases used to project power toward Israel’s borders. Iranian-supplied weapons and personnel funnel through Syria, posing a clear and ongoing threat to Israel’s security and sovereignty. Israel, in return, carries out frequent defensive airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syrian territory to blunt this threat.
The Offer: Sanctions Relief for Normalization and Economic Access
According to Middle Eastern intelligence officials, al-Jolani’s reported démarche involved several key elements:
– A willingness to initiate normalization steps with Israel, akin to regional patterns established by the Abraham Accords;
– Granting U.S. or U.S.-allied entities commercial access to manage and exploit oil and gas fields in territories under HTS control;
– Support for joint measures against Iranian proxies in Syria, ostensibly reducing the operational envelope for IRGC and Hezbollah forces near the Israeli frontier.
This proposal emerged as U.S.-led sanctions, especially through the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, deepened Syria’s humanitarian crisis and constrained the commercial activity of all factions, not just the Assad regime. With limited popular support and financial resources dwindling, HTS’s initiative reveals the acute pressure caused by sustained Western economic measures, as well as a possible recognition of shared strategic interests with Israel and the United States in checking Iranian expansionism.
Regional Backdrop: The Iranian Proxy War against Israel
The war against Israel orchestrated by Iran and its proxies remains the defining axis of regional instability. Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 massacre—the worst act of antisemitic terror since the Holocaust—Israeli civilians and communities have endured unrelenting assaults by Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and a constellation of Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. The creation and entrenchment of hostile launch sites in Syria threaten Israeli cities and require persistent vigilance and defensive action from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
HTS’s proposal represents a rare acknowledgment, even for a former al-Qaeda-linked jihadist entity, that the existential threat posed by Iran unites former adversaries—Sunni Islamist factions and Israel—in pursuit of pragmatic cooperation. It reflects the recalibration of local strategies given Iran’s ongoing pursuit of a land bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean and its use of Syria as a springboard against Israeli and moderate Arab interests.
U.S. Policy and Regional Realignment
During his presidency, Donald Trump maintained limited American forces in northeast Syria to prevent an Islamic State resurgence and imposed sweeping sanctions on Syrian regime affiliates and facilitators. These policies, enshrined in the Caesar Act, aimed to undermine both Assad and Iran while incentivizing local actors to distance themselves from terrorist agendas. The Abraham Accords, negotiated between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other Arab states, provided a diplomatic model for normalizing relations with Israel amid shared security threats from Iran.
Al-Jolani’s outreach must be interpreted within this framework—as both an act of desperation under intensifying sanctions and a sign of the shifting ground in Syria’s proxy conflict, where ideological boundaries are increasingly superseded by existential calculations.
Israel’s Security Imperatives in Syria
Syria’s ongoing civil war and the Iranian presence north of Israel’s borders remain prime national security challenges for the Jewish state. Iran and Hezbollah’s efforts to smuggle precise missiles, establish surveillance, and create launch sites in Syria have made the country a battleground for preemptive Israeli action. Israel insists on enforcing clear red lines: no Iranian or Hezbollah foothold near the Golan Heights, and no tolerance for weapons transfers that might tip the balance of power. Each act of Israeli self-defense in Syrian territory is grounded in verifiable intelligence of imminent threat, and is undertaken as part of an international campaign to limit Iranian military entrenchment.
Implications for Regional Order
Al-Jolani’s initiative, irrespective of U.S. rejection or Washington’s unwillingness to negotiate with a designated terrorist, may presage further realignments as the Syrian conflict endures. The Abraham Accords have reshaped the security landscape, with an increasing number of Arab states viewing Israel as a partner in combating Iranian subversion rather than an adversary. This pragmatic reordering, though fraught with risks, opens the possibility of further diplomatic breakthroughs—even among unlikely actors.
The ongoing struggle in Syria is emblematic of broader themes: the contest between the stabilizing influence of Western-aligned democracies and the destabilizing ambitions of Iranian-backed terror networks. The willingness of a jihadist leader to contemplate normalized relations with Israel and trade access in return for sanctions relief underscores the extent and efficacy of economic pressure, the appeal of the Israeli diplomatic model, and the centrality of the Iran threat.
Conclusion
The reported overture by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s leader to the Trump administration encapsulates the growing complexity of the Syrian conflict and the wider war Iran wages against Israel through its network of proxies. It attests to the recalibration of alliances forced by effective sanctions and the common cause of resisting Iranian expansion. Israel, as the region’s only functioning democracy, continues to act decisively to defend its citizens and borders from encroaching threats, asserting both its sovereignty and its indispensability as an anchor of stability and law in the Middle East.
As regional powers and factions reassess relationships in light of shared threats and opportunity, further shifts toward pragmatic cooperation with Israel remain possible, particularly where the existential dangers of Iranian hegemony outweigh old hostilities. The United States, for its part, remains the pivotal actor whose policies and alliances shape the parameters of any future settlement or enduring peace.
While al-Jolani’s proposal remains unlikely to bear immediate fruit given his organization’s terror designation, its significance lies in what it heralds: the potential for new understandings premised on mutual interest, security cooperation, and a recognition that enduring peace will depend on confronting the true sources of instability and terror in the region.
