In a decision with far-reaching implications across the Middle East, the United States announced the removal of sanctions on Syria following a formal request from Saudi Arabia. The development, confirmed by White House officials late Monday, marks a substantial policy shift that effectively ends more than a decade of American-led economic and diplomatic isolation against the Syrian regime. The move has triggered immediate debate and concern within Israel and among allied security and policy planners.
This decision follows weeks of diplomatic initiatives by European and Gulf states to reincorporate Syria into regional consensus after years as an international pariah. The new American posture under the Trump administration, echoing recent French engagement with Damascus, is seen both as an attempt to recalibrate the regional balance of power and to address mounting strategic interests in the face of escalating Iranian influence.
Regional Dynamics and Israeli Security Concerns
For Israel, the shift in US policy raises urgent questions about future security risks and the balance on its northern front. While Syria, under Bashar al-Assad’s rule, remains a locus for Iranian-backed activity—particularly from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah—normalizing relations with Damascus is viewed by Israeli military officials as a potential threat. Israeli intelligence has warned that relaxing restrictions on Assad’s regime may embolden hostile actors and complicate Israel’s ability to thwart arms transfers and terror activity on the Syrian border.
Israel’s military, led by Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, has maintained a policy of proactive operations in Syria. Hundreds of airstrikes have targeted weapons shipments en route from Iran to Hezbollah, as well as Iranian entrenchment within Syria, based on what is described as Israel’s doctrine of preemptive self-defense. Jerusalem’s stance is informed by a history of direct threats and cross-border attacks originating from territory controlled by both Assad’s government and affiliated terror organizations.
While normalization efforts are framed by some regional actors as pragmatic, Israeli officials and analysts stress the complexity and volatility of the Syrian arena, where sectarian violence and ethnic-cleansing campaigns by groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham continue largely unreported internationally. Israeli sources note that despite Syria’s nominal sovereignty and clear borders, state control remains fragmented and the country serves as a corridor for weapons and fighters aligned with Iranian interests.
Saudi and European Calculations
Saudi Arabia’s decision to press for sanctions relief stems from a broader strategy to counterbalance the expanding reach of Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. The Saudi leadership has grown wary of continued instability at its northern periphery and is moving to conditionally reengage Damascus, in line with similar shifts among key European actors, most notably France. Supporters of this approach argue it may serve to blunt some of Tehran’s leverage, though critics in Israel caution it risks providing material and diplomatic cover for renewed consolidation of Iranian and terror group influence.
The return of Syria to regional diplomacy also reflects the shifting priorities of major states. Whereas the United States and Europe spent years attempting to isolate Assad diplomatically and economically, changing geopolitical calculations—especially American efforts to reduce direct military engagement and burden-sharing with regional partners—have accelerated the push for normalization, despite deep divisions on security guarantees and counter-terrorism commitments.
A Consequential Moment for Israeli Strategy
Within Israel’s security establishment, the consensus is that Jerusalem cannot rely on external actors to guarantee core national interests. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior defense officials have consistently affirmed that Israel will maintain freedom of operation within Syria to prevent the build-up of advanced weaponry or the entrenchment of forces posing strategic threats. This position has taken on heightened urgency following the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre and the ongoing war against Iranian-backed terror networks, events that have deepened Israeli mistrust of international assurances and reinforced the imperative of independent deterrence.
Historical and Geopolitical Context
The rapid shift in Syria’s status from isolated state to a potential negotiating partner underscores the region’s fluid dynamics—and the importance of distinguishing between rhetoric and reality. While expressions of support for normalization circulate in multilateral forums, the ongoing violence and terror activity inside Syria exposes the limits of diplomatic engagement unaided by robust security enforcement. Israeli intelligence continues to document atrocities committed by both the regime and terror organizations, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, whose record of ethnic-cleansing and human rights abuses is well established.
The American decision, though justified by proponents as a step toward broader regional stability, introduces several risks for Israel and other local actors. These include the possible legitimization and strengthening of groups opposed to Israel’s existence, the proliferation of advanced weapons technology, and the emboldening of Iranian regional strategy from the Levant to the Mediterranean.
Looking Forward
As the United States, Saudi Arabia, and European states debate the terms and mechanisms of renewed engagement with Syria, Israel faces the challenge of safeguarding its borders and preventing terror threats emanating from its north. Israeli officials have reiterated that no diplomatic process will alter the strategic necessity of self-defense, and that red lines regarding Iranian and proxy group activity will be strictly enforced.
The coming months will determine whether normalization efforts contribute to genuine stability or merely create new opportunities for hostile actors. For Israel, the answer lies in continued vigilance, proactive defense measures, and an unwavering commitment to secure the country against the persistent threat of Iranian-backed terror—a threat made ever more real by shifting alliances and the realities of war.
