In a major geopolitical development, United States President Donald Trump has declared the removal of longstanding American sanctions against the Syrian regime, an act positioned as a means to help Syria ‘thrive again.’ The move marks a significant policy transformation and immediately reverberated throughout the Middle East, raising sharp security concerns in Israel over the potential empowerment of Iran and terror proxies operating within Syria.
Sanctions: History and Purpose
For more than a decade, U.S. sanctions have been a critical lever in the international effort to isolate Syria’s Assad regime. Originally imposed in response to Syria’s internal repression and alliance with Iranian-backed forces, the restrictions cut off the regime and its associates from much of the global financial system, blocked foreign investment, and directly targeted Assad’s logistical ties to organizations such as Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The sanctions were reinforced repeatedly in the wake of the Syrian civil war, alleged war crimes, and the regime’s continued cooperation with Iran’s regional network of armed proxies.
The White House Pivot: Reasons and Ambitions
Trump administration officials explained the policy reversal as a response to both the humanitarian impact of prolonged sanctions and a strategic new approach meant to weaken Damascus’s dependency on Iran. White House briefings indicated that sanctions relief is conditional and designed to stimulate economic activity and gradual engagement by Arab states, contingent upon Syria curbing its links with Iran, ending support for terror groups, and demonstrating steps towards domestic reform. Administration sources emphasized the potential for renewed investment and humanitarian access, aiming to offer a roadmap for Syria’s reintegration into the regional order.
Israel’s Strategic Calculus
Israel’s leadership reacted with heightened urgency. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet convened to assess the ramifications, and Defense Minister Israel Katz highlighted Israel’s main concern: that Iran could channel newfound Syrian resources into building its terror infrastructure near Israel’s northern borders. Tehran has utilized the Assad regime for years as a conduit for weapons shipments to Hezbollah. These include drones, missiles, and other advanced systems that threaten Israeli territory—a situation the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) regards as an unacceptable escalation.
Israeli intelligence underscores that more than 80,000 Iranian-affiliated fighters—including Hezbollah operatives—are entrenched within Syria. These forces reinforce projectiles and ordinance deployed in Lebanon, using Syrian territory as a logistic base and training ground under direct IRGC supervision. Israel’s ongoing airstrikes in Syria, publicly acknowledged as necessary acts of self-defense, have targeted such weapons shipments and militant encampments since the civil war’s earliest days.
Iranian Influence and the Risks for Regional Stability
The lifting of sanctions may yield swift economic benefits for the Assad regime, but Jerusalem fears that unchecked relief will flood Hezbollah and Iranian units with new resources. The IRGC’s Quds Force, in coordination with Hezbollah, operates sophisticated smuggling routes—some for precision-guided missiles—that pass through Syria. An Israeli defense official warned, ‘Every dollar Assad gains risks being invested in terror operations directed against our citizens.’ The fear is that, far from weakening Iran’s grip, delinking the Syrian economy from global punishment could entrench Iran’s arc of influence from Tehran, through Baghdad and Damascus, into Beirut.
Humanitarian Repercussions: Opportunity or Obstacle?
Proponents of sanctions relief cite the Syrian population’s dire plight. The war left over 12 million Syrians displaced, the vast majority in abject poverty, with crumbling infrastructure and limited access to basic goods. Supporters hope internationally managed relief could facilitate reconstruction, refugee returns, and at least partial normalization. Skeptics counter that the Assad regime’s established record of corruption and brutality—combined with Iranian intervention—makes it unlikely that new capital or aid will reach ordinary Syrians. Instead, they warn funds may be funneled into military and terror projects, perpetuating instability along Israel’s borders.
Moscow, Tehran, and Regional Ambitions
The U.S. policy change also illuminates shifting alliances. Moscow, which has militarily bolstered Assad since 2015, views Washington’s move as tacit recognition of Assad’s rule. Russia stands to benefit as Western leverage recedes, cementing influence along the Mediterranean through permanent naval and air bases. For Iran, an easing of pressure risks further cementing its crescent of control and logistical highways to Hezbollah and other proxies bent on harassing Israelis and undermining regional stability.
Israel’s Red Lines and Preparedness
Israel continues to stress that any attempt by the Syrian regime to transfer newfound economic leverage into military assets for Iran or Hezbollah will be met with swift, decisive retaliation. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir affirmed, ‘Our mission remains preventing the transformation of Syria into an Iranian launchpad—by whatever means are necessary.’ The IDF maintains advanced missile defense deployments and intelligence capabilities along the northern frontier, monitoring developments round-the-clock. At the diplomatic level, Israel is working closely with the U.S. and European governments to demand oversight on the distribution of sanctioned goods and aid, seeking enforceable guarantees that finance will not fuel the anti-Israeli terror apparatus.
Arab States: Hesitancy and Concerns
While some Arab states have quietly advocated for limited Syrian reintegration, most remain wary, demanding accountability, guarantees on terror, and Iranian withdrawal from Syria as conditions. Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf nations fear the return of refugees and the spread of Iranian-backed militias more than Assad’s isolation. They remain reluctant to fully normalize relations until substantive changes are observed in Damascus’s orientation—even with American encouragement.
The Stakes, Israel’s Security, and the Path Ahead
Sanctions relief, without comprehensive oversight, could redraw the regional landscape to Israel’s detriment. The October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre, the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust, stands as a stark warning of the threats posed by unchecked terror entities backed by Iran and enabled via Syria. Israeli policy remains anchored in the principle that self-defense is paramount, and any development increasing the risk of Iranian-aligned aggression will be countered with both force and diplomatic resolve.
The trajectory from here will likely be determined by whether international actors insist upon robust verification and consequences for violations, or whether the Assad regime simply becomes a more affluent patron of Iranian and Hezbollah designs. Israel will continue to monitor and defend its citizens, informing the world of the realities on its borders and steadfastly upholding its right to act against all who threaten its existence.
