In late 2024, the Middle East underwent a seismic shift as a swift and unexpected rebel offensive toppled Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in just 11 days. While rebel forces surged forward, neighboring Israel launched its most extensive bombing campaign in Syria to date, targeting over 80% of Assad’s remaining military infrastructure. Israeli forces also advanced into previously contested territories, securing positions along the Yarmouk River and Mount Hermon—bringing them within striking distance of Syria’s capital, Damascus.
This rapid escalation reached a critical point in February 2025, when Israel called for the creation of a demilitarized “security zone” across southern Syria, citing the presence of hostile militant factions and the need to protect the local Druze minority. As heavy Israeli airstrikes continued, a new Druze militia emerged in Syria’s Suwayda province. Whether this development will deter armed groups from further conflict or escalate into a direct Israeli military occupation remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, Syria’s new transitional government has denounced Israel’s actions as violations of its sovereignty. However, this confrontation is merely the latest chapter in a decades-old struggle over the Golan Heights—territory Israel seized from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. While Israel and the United States recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli land, much of the international community continues to view it as occupied Syrian territory.
Now, as the region teeters on the brink of further conflict, a pressing question emerges: will Israel’s strategic gains in Syria lead to a prolonged military presence, or is a diplomatic solution still possible?
The Historical Struggle Over the Golan Heights
The Golan Heights have long been a flashpoint of conflict between Israel and Syria. The region, once part of the Ottoman Empire, changed hands multiple times in the 20th century. After the fall of the Ottomans, Britain and France carved up the Middle East, and the Golan Heights became part of French-controlled Syria. However, the emergence of Zionism and the push for a Jewish homeland in the early 1900s led to growing tensions between Jewish and Arab communities.
Following the United Nations’ 1947 decision to partition Palestine, Israel declared independence in 1948, sparking the first Arab-Israeli war. Syria, alongside other Arab nations, launched an invasion to destroy the nascent Jewish state. Though the war ended in an armistice, territorial disputes—especially over the Golan Heights—remained unresolved.
Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, Syrian forces frequently shelled Israeli settlements from their positions atop the Golan Heights. In response, Israel launched a preemptive strike in 1967 during the Six-Day War, capturing the region and displacing tens of thousands of Syrian residents. Since then, Israel has maintained control over the Golan Heights, viewing it as a critical defensive buffer against Syrian aggression.
Syria made multiple attempts to reclaim the Golan through military action, most notably during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Despite early gains, Syria ultimately lost the war, and a United Nations buffer zone was established to separate the two countries. In 1981, Israel officially extended its laws to the Golan Heights, effectively annexing the territory. The move was condemned by the United Nations, but in 2019, the Trump administration became the first to officially recognize Israeli sovereignty over the region.
With Assad’s fall, Israel saw an opportunity not only to reinforce its hold over the Golan Heights but also to extend its influence deeper into Syrian territory, potentially reshaping the region’s power dynamics for generations.
The Collapse of the Assad Regime
Bashar al-Assad’s regime had been on shaky ground for years. A decade of civil war, foreign interventions, and economic collapse left Syria a fragmented and war-torn state. However, the final blow came with Israel’s relentless military campaign against Iranian forces in Syria. By December 2024, Israeli airstrikes had crippled Iranian-backed militias and decimated Syria’s military infrastructure.
Assad, abandoned by his Russian and Iranian allies, fled the country in disgrace, reportedly seeking refuge in Russia. His departure marked the end of an era of brutal dictatorship and opened the door for new power struggles. The rebels, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, quickly seized Damascus, forming a transitional government. However, Israel was not content to simply watch from the sidelines.
Fearing that the power vacuum would allow Islamist factions to establish a hostile presence on its border, Israel acted decisively. The Israeli Air Force launched hundreds of airstrikes targeting any remaining Syrian military assets, ensuring that Syria would never again pose a direct threat to the Jewish state. Israeli forces then moved to secure the UN buffer zone, the Yarmouk River, and Mount Hermon, effectively expanding their control over strategic locations in southern Syria.
These actions signaled Israel’s intent to reshape the post-Assad order. By eliminating Syria’s military capabilities and preventing Iranian-backed militias from reestablishing themselves, Israel ensured its long-term security while sending a clear message to any group attempting to challenge its dominance
A Druze Buffer State?
One of the most intriguing developments in post-Assad Syria is the rise of a Druze militia in the Suwayda province. The Druze, a small but influential religious minority, have long sought autonomy, resisting both Assad’s regime and extremist factions. Israel, which has historically maintained good relations with the Druze, may see an opportunity to establish a friendly, semi-independent buffer state in southern Syria.
By supporting the Druze, Israel could create a stable zone between its border and the rest of Syria—much like the security buffer it once maintained in southern Lebanon during the 1980s and 1990s. This move could serve multiple strategic purposes:
- Preventing the rise of hostile factions: With Islamist groups and Iranian proxies vying for power, a Druze-dominated buffer zone would help keep Israel’s border secure.
- Securing the Golan Heights: By reinforcing its presence in southern Syria, Israel could further cement its claim over the Golan Heights.
- Influencing Syria’s political future: Supporting the Druze could give Israel leverage in any future negotiations regarding Syria’s post-war reconstruction.
However, this strategy is not without risks. If Israel moves too aggressively, it could provoke international condemnation or even a direct confrontation with Syria’s new leadership. Additionally, some Druze factions may be wary of Israeli involvement, fearing backlash from other Syrian groups.
The collapse of the Assad regime has created both opportunities and challenges for Israel. By launching a decisive military campaign, Israel has successfully dismantled Syria’s military capabilities and prevented Iranian-backed forces from filling the power vacuum. Its expanded control over strategic areas near the Golan Heights further solidifies its security posture.
Yet, Syria’s future remains uncertain. Whether Israel will pursue a long-term military presence in southern Syria or leverage its new position for diplomatic gains is still unclear. What is certain, however, is that Israel has emerged from this crisis stronger than ever, proving once again that it will not hesitate to act in defense of its people and its homeland.
As the dust settles over Syria, one thing is undeniable: the Middle East has entered a new era, and Israel is at the forefront of shaping its future.
