Rising regional tensions took a dramatic turn as Oman’s Foreign Ministry formally declared what it characterized as a “historic victory” for forces in Yemen following the United States’ decision to step back from frontline efforts to protect Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea. The announcement, widely broadcast by Iranian-aligned outlets and spokespersons for Ansar Allah (the Houthis), comes at a time of expanding confrontation between Israel and an Iranian-backed network of militias across the Middle East.
For months, Houthis in Yemen have executed a campaign of missile and drone attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea, with particular emphasis on those thought to be linked—directly or indirectly—to Israel. These attacks are widely understood by regional analysts and Western governments as coordinated with Tehran, part of a broader strategy to strike Israeli, U.S., and allied interests by proxy. The campaign—coupled with attacks on Israel from other Iranian-backed terror organizations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—follows the October 7, 2023 massacre perpetrated by Hamas, the deadliest antisemitic incident since the Holocaust.
According to Omani officials and Houthi leaders, the move by Washington to scale back direct naval escort responsibilities signals both a military and symbolic win for Iran’s regional proxies. While U.S. officials frame the decision as a shift toward multinational cooperation, Iranian-aligned organizations have cast it as an American retreat. “The fate of those who attack Yemen will be the same as the fate of America, which has failed and been defeated,” claimed political bureau members of the Houthis, amplifying a message that has resonated through pro-Iranian media channels across the region.
The reality, however, is far more complex. The strategic environment in the Red Sea has changed since the onset of Israel’s defensive campaign in Gaza, following the mass murder and abduction of Israeli civilians by Hamas. Iran rapidly escalated its regional campaign, mobilizing its proxies—in particular the Houthis, who benefited from technology transfers, training, and intelligence from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These networks see their targeting of international shipping as “support for Gaza,” but in practice their campaign disrupts vital global commerce, puts civilian sailors at risk, and spreads insecurity for millions who depend on Red Sea trade flows.
Facing mounting operational costs and a calculated effort by Iran and its proxies to stretch U.S. defensive postures, the Biden administration began transferring escort duties to regional and international partners in early May 2024. Navy officials continue to operate in a reduced capacity, but the absence of constant American warship presence allowed Iranian-backed networks—and their political allies in Muscat and Sanaa—to claim an outsized political victory.
Despite these claims, Israel’s security establishment remains undeterred. Under the leadership of Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, the Israeli Navy and intelligence community have increased cooperative security efforts with regional partners, improved missile defense systems, and shared intelligence with key allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have emphasized that Israel retains its sovereign right—and advanced capability—to defend commercial and civilian interests at sea even as international dynamics shift.
Oman’s public backing of Houthi narratives underscores a new period of diplomatic risk for moderate Arab states. While Muscat has long maintained a role as go-between for Tehran and the Gulf monarchies, the explicit celebration of Houthi gains—framed in confessional and anti-Israel language—signals a hardening of Iranian influence in the Arabian Peninsula. It also threatens to undermine regional diplomatic progress, including normalization talks that have gathered momentum in recent years as part of the Abraham Accords.
For Tehran and the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’—which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, and armed Shiite groups in Iraq and Syria—the battle for the Red Sea is only one part of an expanded campaign designed to weaken Israel, confront U.S. interests, and destabilize vital trade arteries. Israel, as the only democracy in the region directly targeted by this coordinated aggression, has repeatedly called on the international community to confront the hard evidence of Iran’s strategy: systematic terror attacks targeting civilians, maritime piracy, and repeated provocations that breach the laws of war.
As the conflict enters a new phase, the competing narratives underscore the reality on the ground: Israel faces not merely a tactical threat but a strategic challenge from a coalition determined to erode its security, regional partnerships, and standing in the international system. While some regional actors seek political capital from perceived Western retrenchment, Israel is preparing for a long-term confrontation that will determine the balance of power in the Middle East for years to come.
