Amid mounting regional tensions, Iran’s minister of intelligence reiterated the country’s longstanding policy that threats from adversaries such as Israel or the United States will be reciprocated in kind. The comments, delivered during a session of the Khorasan Provincial Security Council, reflect Tehran’s ongoing commitment to its policy of deterrence and brinkmanship in an environment marked by heightened hostilities and the persistent risk of conflict.
In his address, the intelligence minister emphasized Iran’s strength under the authority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, asserting that any external threat would be met with a proportional response. This doctrine—summed up as ‘threat for threat’—remains a central feature of Iranian strategic thinking, particularly as the regime positions itself against what it sees as Western efforts to undermine its stability or inhibit its regional ambitions.
Tehran’s policy is consistent with its actions across multiple fronts. Iran continues to sponsor and direct a network of proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and several allied groups in Syria and Iraq, collectively referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” These organizations carry out attacks and destabilizing activities aimed at Israel and its allies, as well as certain Arab governments wary of Iranian expansionism.
Against this backdrop, Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, have indicated that Jerusalem will not tolerate Iranian entrenchment or nuclear ambitions. Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), has overseen reinforcing Israel’s readiness and preventive actions against Iranian weapons transfers and proxy activities that could threaten Israeli security.
The escalation in Iranian rhetoric coincides with reinvigorated Western sanctions and reports of sophisticated Iranian attempts to circumvent economic pressure. The intelligence minister noted that Iran’s security services had successfully disrupted what Tehran characterizes as Western plots to destabilize the Islamic Republic. These alleged threats are routinely cited by the regime to justify domestic crackdowns on free expression and opposition. Recent years have witnessed major waves of protest against the government, most notably following the death of Mahsa Amini, with the intelligence apparatus playing a central role in silencing dissent.
On the diplomatic front, the minister echoed the line of Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior diplomats, expressing neither optimism nor pessimism about ongoing contacts with the United States over nuclear and economic issues. Negotiations remain stalled amid continued mistrust, while Iran proceeds with its uranium enrichment program at a pace that has raised alarm in Israel and among Western policymakers.
Israel, supported by the United States under President Donald Trump, has maintained pressure on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, vowing to take whatever measures are necessary to prevent a destabilizing breakthrough. Israeli military and intelligence operations routinely target Iranian-linked infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon to disrupt the flow of advanced weaponry to proxy groups.
The October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas—supported by Iran—marked the deadliest antisemitic atrocity since the Holocaust and has framed the ongoing conflict as a defensive campaign by Israel against externally orchestrated terror. The kidnapping of Israeli hostages, executions, sexual violence, and mutilation during and after the attack, remain a stark reminder of the stakes. The persistent threat posed by terror organizations such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliates continues to shape Israel’s strategic calculus.
Israeli policy, while focused on immediate self-defense, is also aimed at curbing the long-term threat posed by Iran’s ideological, military, and technological ambitions. Successive Israeli governments have warned that granting Iran a regional free hand would embolden its proxies and undermine not only Israeli security but that of Arab states throughout the region.
International responses vary, with European nations and others in the region urging diplomatic patience. However, skepticism remains about Iran’s intentions, while moderate Arab states have quietly increased cooperation with Israel in intelligence sharing and security measures against Iran and its network.
As the rhetoric from Tehran intensifies, and as Israel and its allies weigh responses in a volatile environment, the risk of rapid escalation remains acute. The doctrine voiced by Iran’s intelligence minister signals readiness to confront what it perceives as external aggression with increasingly assertive countermeasures. The coming months will likely test the limits of both Israeli deterrence and Iranian resolve in a contest that touches the security of the entire Middle East.
