Tehran—As the Middle East grapples with renewed instability, Iran has recommitted to maintaining and expanding its military and political presence in Syria, undeterred by mounting international concern. Iran’s leadership, coordinating closely with Russia and Turkey, is cementing a trilateral alliance to deepen their foothold in Syrian affairs even as they avoid publicly addressing Turkish military activity within Syrian borders. Israel, confronted by the growth of Iranian-backed militias and an emboldened Axis of Resistance, continues to treat Syria as a primary front in its campaign for security and deterrence.
Iran’s support for the Syrian regime and affiliated entities remains unequivocal. Senior Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi affirmed Tehran’s intent to increase support for Syria, including the area now dominated by Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s faction. These assurances follow years of Iranian policy aimed at embedding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and proxy Shia militias across much of western Syria in a bid to safeguard Assad’s rule, facilitate arms transfers, and pose a persistent threat to Israeli territory.
Meanwhile, Russian and Turkish interventions in Syria—sometimes at odds in pursuit of Kurdish or opposition targets—are being managed in coordination with Iran’s broader strategic goals. Iranian officials have loudly denounced what they term the ‘Israeli occupation’ of Syrian territory, but notably remain silent about ongoing Turkish deployments in northern Syria—a region under decades-long strain from cross-border attacks, demographic engineering, and contentious governance.
Strategic Alliances Extend Beyond Syria
In direct statements, Iranian officials have articulated the intent to broaden tripartite cooperation with Russia and China beyond the nuclear sphere, capturing joint political, economic, and security interests. This expansion is raising alarm in Western capitals and Jerusalem, as enhanced coordination among these powers threatens to undermine sanctions, facilitate advanced weapons transfers, and embolden regional actors hostile to Israel.
Iran’s diplomacy does not end on the Syrian battlefield. The Islamic Republic has endorsed Russia’s ‘3+3’ initiative, a proposed framework aiming to stabilize the South Caucasus by bringing together Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia with ‘big neighbors’ Iran, Russia, and Turkey. While branded as a peace mechanism, critics caution that the arrangement risks entrenching Iranian and Russian leverage at the expense of independent diplomacy and regional security—particularly for Israel, which has strong strategic ties to Baku and concerns over Iranian weapons flows through the Caucasus corridor.
Implications for Israel’s Security
Iran’s sustained campaign to knit together proxies across multiple borders, funnel advanced weaponry into Lebanon and Syria, and shield itself diplomatically under the cover of multilateral initiatives presents a grave and ongoing challenge for Israel. The October 7th, 2023, Hamas atrocity—carried out by Iran-supported terror operatives—stands as a watershed moment, compelling Israel’s security doctrine to treat every new alignment and every unchecked corridor as a latent threat.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), under the command of Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, have escalated preemptive strikes against Iranian military infrastructure in Syria. Israeli operations focus on disrupting IRGC activity, weapons storage, and technology transfers intended to reach Hezbollah or other armed groups operating along Israel’s northern front. Defense Minister Israel Katz maintains these military actions as necessary for national survival, repeatedly emphasizing the legal and moral difference between defensive operations and the terror campaigns directed at Israeli civilians.
Regional Double Standards and International Response
Despite Iran’s sharp condemnations of Israel’s actions in Syria, both Iran and Russia routinely sidestep criticism of Turkish incursions—an omission illustrating the pragmatic rather than principled nature of their partnership. The enduring Turkish military presence in Syria, targeting Kurdish groups and entrenching Turkish influence, is largely tolerated by Iran and Russia for its usefulness in the larger contest against Western, Israeli, or independent local interests.
Diplomatic overtures such as the ‘3+3’ South Caucasus mechanism or expanded trilateral formats with China are seen by analysts as attempts to outmaneuver traditional Western influence and provide Tehran latitude to resource, supply, and direct its regional axis. These platforms, however, have done little to reduce the risks borne by Israel, which remains exposed to the growing sophistication of terror infrastructure funded and orchestrated by the IRGC.
A Multidimensional Challenge for Israeli Security
Iran’s pursuit of a contiguous sphere of influence—running from Iraq through Syria into Lebanon, with pipelines into Gaza and the South Caucasus—signals a transformation in the regional order. The growing technological and financial support among Iran, Russia, and China, now extending to cyber, aerospace, and missile capabilities, directly threatens Israeli sovereignty and regional stability.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his security cabinet have repeatedly urged increased pressure on the Iranian regime, robust intelligence sharing among allies, and the maintenance of clear red lines regarding advanced weapons flows. With American backing under President Donald Trump, Israel views its campaign against IRGC and proxy entrenchment as part of a broader defense of democratic states in the face of state-sponsored terror.
Looking Ahead
Amid shifting alliances and the hardening of rival blocs, Israel faces complex diplomatic and security challenges that demand clarity and resolve. Trilateral forums and regional initiatives championed by Iran offer little prospect for sustainable peace, given the centrality of terror organizations and proxy warfare in Tehran’s approach.
The continued contest over Syria is emblematic: a moment-by-moment battle for the country’s future that doubles as a theater in the ongoing war to encircle and undermine Israel. Only by maintaining distinction between sovereign self-defense and state-sponsored aggression—and by accurately reporting on the real actors and their motives—can the public understand the stakes of the conflict and the necessity of Israel’s vigilance.
