Israel stands at the crossroads of a prolonged and complex conflict, confronting a web of Iranian-backed proxy forces that continues to adapt and threaten its security across multiple fronts. Despite operational setbacks, the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’—comprising Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and Hamas in Gaza—remains a durable and dynamic network. Israel’s military, diplomatic, and information operations will define the next decade, as Iranian influence expands not only regionally but also through new footholds in Africa, and as psychological and propaganda warfare target national cohesion.
Persistent Threats and Future Scenarios
While Israeli and allied operations have degraded many capabilities of Tehran’s proxies, military officials warn that the fundamental architecture of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is intact. Each group—though weakened at times by targeted strikes, international pressure, or internal crises—retains the capacity to reconstitute and renew hostilities.
Hezbollah: The Durable Northern Adversary
Following several rounds of escalation and fragile truces, Hezbollah remains a potent force on Israel’s northern border. Israeli intelligence assesses that, even if current ceasefire arrangements hold, Hezbollah will use any lull to rebuild its infrastructure and arsenals, relying on sustained Iranian logistical support. Experience from past conflicts, such as the aftermath of the 2006 Lebanon War, demonstrates Hezbollah’s strategy of rest, rearmament, and eventual resurgence. Any shift in American regional engagement could encourage bolder aggression from Beirut.
The Houthis: A Model for Insurgency Endurance
The Houthis, entrenched in Yemen, have leveraged their conflict with Saudi Arabia and coalition forces to showcase the adaptability of Iranian-supported insurgency warfare. Airstrikes have driven the Houthis underground but not eradicated their capability or intent. Their endurance model, shaped by parallels to Taliban persistence, suggests that even after apparent setbacks, they are prepared to wait out foreign intervention and resume operations, including in the maritime domain and potentially into Africa.
Iraqi Militias: Waiting for Political Opportunity
Iraqi Shiite militias, many operated by the IRGC’s Quds Force, have learned to weather Western military strikes and domestic pressures by dispersing and entrenching within Iraqi political institutions. Analysts caution that these groups will quietly preserve their arsenals, awaiting a more permissive environment—possibly catalyzed by an American troop withdrawal or political changes in Washington—to resume attacks on Western and Israeli targets.
Hamas: Ongoing Challenge in Gaza
Despite the devastation wrought by Israel’s 2023 campaign in Gaza, Hamas is not obliterated. It retains underground networks, smuggling corridors, and ideological hubs. While Israel continues to target leadership and infrastructure, no intelligence assessment expects Hamas to disappear imminently; instead, the group’s resilience means Israel must prepare for a drawn-out campaign of attrition, aimed at containment and deterrence rather than outright defeat in the short term.
Expanding Fronts: The Iranian Move into Africa
Recent reports indicate that the Iranian regime is forging new proxy relationships in Sudan and other African states, seeking to transfer weaponry and resources that could threaten Israel and Western interests. This geographic diversification, if left unchecked, risks extending the missile and drone threat beyond traditional Middle Eastern theaters, requiring enhanced monitoring and preemptive operational planning.
War Beyond the Battlefield: Propaganda and Psychological Manipulation
Iranian strategy extends well beyond kinetic operations. Coordinated propaganda campaigns, amplified through state media, social platforms, and networks of influencers, have had corrosive effects on Israel’s global standing, economy, and alliances. The economic damage from boycotts and market anxieties, often triggered by orchestrated misinformation, has been measurable. Diplomatic relations, especially those ushered in by the Abraham Accords, face pressure from relentless information operations aiming to undermine cohesion between Israel and its partners.
The Battle for Social Cohesion
The information and psychological war does not stop at Israel’s borders. Iranian cyber and information operations now aim to exploit societal divisions, inflaming debates and planting disinformation to erode trust in leadership and public institutions. Israeli officials warn that while military threats can be anticipated and countered, the gradual deepening of internal rifts poses a grave strategic concern. In the wake of the October 7th massacre and prolonged conflict, unity is seen as a critical pillar of national resilience.
The Larger Strategic Picture: Historical Context and Core Challenges
The current struggle is not a new confrontation but a mutation of decades-old Iranian strategy. Tehran’s funding, arming, and ideological support of non-state militias have destabilized neighbors and denied Israel decisive victory. The Axis of Resistance adapts, from Lebanon through Syria to Iraq and Yemen, showing a willingness to expand into new domains like Africa or cyberspace as the opportunity arises.
Israel’s national security doctrine prioritizes defense in depth, robust intelligence, technological innovation, and international partnerships. Investments in missile defense, cyber capabilities, intelligence-led targeting, and global diplomacy represent a multi-tiered answer to Tehran’s shifting tactics.
No False Symmetry: Israel’s Defense Versus Terror’s Offense
The moral and legal asymmetry remains clear: Israel acts as a sovereign state protecting civilians and territory according to international law; its enemies employ terror, human shields, and disinformation as primary tactics. The events of October 7th, the worst atrocity against Jews since the Holocaust, reinforced the stakes and clarified the guiding ethos of Israeli defense.
Conclusion: Enduring Vigilance and Unity Required
Looking ahead, Israeli analysts and security officials see no quick end to the layered threats posed by Iran’s proxies. The most likely scenario is a sustained period of deterrence, containment, and intermittent escalation. The expansion of Iranian influence into new theaters and the intensification of information warfare underscore the need for regional alliances and bottom-up societal resilience. Ultimately, Israel’s fight is not only military but existential, demanding a clear-eyed commitment to defense, truth, and unity—so that the nation can withstand both the rockets and the divisive narratives launched from Tehran and its allies.
