Jordan, a seemingly quiet neighbor in a turbulent Middle East, has become a silent linchpin in the region’s battle for stability. Flanked by Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, the Hashemite Kingdom is more than just a buffer state—it is the first line of defense against a regional collapse that could reshape the entire map. And now, under mounting pressure from within and without, Jordan stands on a knife’s edge.
For years, Jordan has maintained a posture of moderation and pragmatism. It signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994 and has long served as a geopolitical “airbag” between Israel and the chaos of Syria and Iraq. But Jordan’s geographic position, once a stabilizing asset, is now a source of growing peril. Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Amman has faced a never-ending stream of challenges—waves of refugees, collapsing borders, and a spike in smuggling of drugs and arms.
Jordan’s perceived weakness—its reliance on U.S. aid and covert Israeli support—is actually what keeps it afloat. But that same fragility makes it the perfect target for Iran’s subversive ambitions.
A Perfect Storm
What began as a refugee crisis has morphed into something far more dangerous. Jordan’s long border with Syria is now one of the most active smuggling corridors in the Middle East. Jordanian officials report daily attempts to traffic weapons and drugs—most notably Captagon, the same drug Hezbollah funneled into Gaza before Hamas’ October 7 massacre. A senior Jordanian defense official has warned that the arms smuggling has reached “unprecedented levels,” and much of it originates from territory controlled by Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
This illicit flow of arms and narcotics is not just criminal—it’s strategic. Iran’s proxies are using it to destabilize Jordan from within. And it’s working.
The Iranian Threat
Iran is not attacking Jordan with missiles—it’s attacking with ideology, deception, and subversion. Through alliances with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, Iran is embedding itself deep into Jordanian society. Former Jordanian intelligence operatives have revealed that Tehran has issued direct orders to recruit Jordanians, with a plan to penetrate every level of society—from mosques to universities to tribal councils.
This mirrors Iran’s playbook in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. In each case, it partnered with a local Islamist faction (like the Houthis), weakened the central government, and replaced it with a terror-aligned entity that could strike Israel.
Jordan is next on that list.
Two recent terrorists who infiltrated Israel from Jordan were members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan—acting in concert with Hamas and Iran. Their goal was not just to kill, but to drag Jordan into confrontation with Israel and unravel the kingdom’s already fragile status quo.
The “Palestinian” Factor
At the heart of Jordan’s internal instability is a fact often ignored: over half the population is of “Palestinian” origin. Many are loyal citizens—but not all. As the conflict with Hamas escalates, Jordan’s “Palestinian” population has increasingly shown signs of radicalization. Just last year, over 150,000 Jordanian citizens—most of “Palestinian” descent—gathered in Amman to protest outside the Israeli Embassy, waving Hamas flags and demanding the end of the peace treaty with Israel.
This is not a fringe movement. The demographic pressure inside Jordan is one of its greatest vulnerabilities. Any major influx of refugees from Gaza—on top of the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees already in the country—could tip the kingdom into chaos.
Iran’s Plan for Jordan
Iran’s ambitions are clear. Tehran seeks to turn Jordan into another front in its regional war against Israel. This isn’t speculation—this is strategy.
Captured intelligence, corroborated by multiple Arab sources, suggests that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has instructed its proxies to destabilize Jordan’s monarchy and convert the country into a launchpad for attacks on Israel’s eastern border.
Iran’s grudge with Jordan dates back to 2004, when King Abdullah warned of Iran’s efforts to build a “Shiite Crescent.” That warning has now materialized, with Iran controlling Lebanon via Hezbollah, Iraq via militias, Syria via the Assad regime (until its collapse), and Yemen via the Houthis. Jordan is the last major domino.
After Jordan assisted Israel in intercepting Iranian drones during the April 13, 2024, attack—the largest ballistic assault in history—Tehran lashed out diplomatically, accusing Amman of “collaborating with Zionists.” In response, Iran’s proxies intensified their smuggling operations and propaganda efforts inside Jordan, aiming to destabilize the kingdom.
The Muslim Brotherhood
In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood is not a fringe group—it’s the largest Islamist movement in the country, with over 10,000 active members and deep roots going back to 1945. Though tolerated by Jordan’s monarchy for decades, recent years have seen a crackdown on its activities, especially after intelligence linked it to Iranian agents and Hamas operatives.
Jordanian security services have accused the Brotherhood of exploiting economic protests to fuel anti-government unrest. Rising fuel prices and inflation have become excuses for mass mobilizations that conveniently align with Tehran’s interests.
This is not a coincidence—it is a calculated effort to turn Jordan into a pressure cooker.
Why Jordan Matters to Israel and the Free World
Jordan is more than a neighbor—it’s a firewall. If the Hashemite regime collapses, Israel’s eastern border becomes exposed. Terror groups could use Jordan as a staging ground for attacks. Worse, Iranian proxies could flank Israel from Iraq and Jordan simultaneously, creating a two-front threat that bypasses the traditional Gaza-Lebanon axis.
Jordan is also vital for American and Gulf interests. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, and even the UAE understand that Jordan’s collapse would ignite a regional firestorm. It is no accident that all these countries, though rivals on many fronts, have shown rare alignment in supporting Jordan’s stability.
Given Jordan’s instability and Iran’s open hostility, Israel must treat the Jordan Valley not as a diplomatic bargaining chip, but as a strategic red line. An unguarded border with Jordan in today’s climate is an invitation to disaster. Every Israeli government—left, center, or right—must prioritize permanent Israeli control over the Jordan Valley to maintain regional deterrence.
Jordan’s fall would not be the end of a chapter. It would be the beginning of a nightmare.
