In the aftermath of increasingly polarized U.S. politics, international observers and stakeholders in the Middle East are weighing the possible ramifications of a second presidential term for Donald Trump. With the 2024 U.S. presidential elections approaching, and global tensions at a historic high, the prospect of a Trump administration returning to the White House has renewed debate among policymakers, allies, and adversaries.
The State of U.S.-Israel Relations After Trump’s First Term
Donald Trump’s 2017–2021 presidency marked a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, especially regarding Israel and the broader Middle East. His administration brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing Israeli relations with several Arab states—a historical breakthrough widely welcomed in Jerusalem as a validation of Israel’s commitment to peace and regional cooperation. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and his support for Israel’s security agenda reinforced the strategic relationship between the two democracies.
However, critics argue that Trump’s penchant for unilateral action and unpredictable rhetoric alienated some traditional allies and undermined long-term regional stability. The decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the Iran nuclear deal—and the successive reimposition of sanctions on Iran, while celebrated by Israel and many U.S. lawmakers, rattled European capitals and contributed to escalating friction with Tehran. Iranian proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-backed militias across Syria and Iraq, responded with growing belligerence, raising the risk profile for all U.S.-aligned states.
Regional Threats and Israel’s Security Calculus
The unyielding nature of Iranian-sponsored terror networks has left the region in a precarious state since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists launched the deadliest antisemitic massacre since the Holocaust, leading to unprecedented atrocities against Israeli civilians—including executions, sexual violence, mutilations, and the abduction of innocent hostages. This shockwave of violence compelled Israel to respond with acts of self-defense in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and beyond, accelerating efforts to dismantle entrenched terror infrastructure while striving to minimize risks to Gaza’s residents caught between Hamas’s repressive rule and the IDF’s operational necessity.
A Trump Return and the Iranian Axis of Resistance
As the world awaits the possibility of a Trump comeback, analysts are asking whether the escalating war imposed by Iran and its regional proxies would prompt a bolder U.S.-Israeli alliance or further destabilize the region. During his first term, Trump’s public commitment to Israel’s security was matched by a willingness to employ economic and military leverage against Iran, including the assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani. Yet, the absence of a coherent long-term strategy contributed to a patchwork approach, oscillating between deterrence and disengagement.
Should Trump reclaim the presidency, Israeli officials anticipate a reinvigorated U.S. posture of maximum pressure on Iran, stronger backing for Israeli defense systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling, and increased cooperation in intelligence and cyber warfare. There is also speculation that the Abraham Accords could expand, bringing in additional Arab partners under the umbrella of shared security concerns vis-à-vis Iran and Sunni Islamist extremism.
Conversely, European policymakers—who generally favored the JCPOA and multilateral frameworks—fear renewed American unilateralism. The prospect of the U.S. bypassing traditional diplomatic channels would challenge NATO cohesion, heighten the risk of miscalculation in Syria and Iraq, and embolden anti-Western actors.
Implications for the Gaza Conflict and Hostage Crisis
The war in Gaza—a direct result of Iranian-backed terror group actions—has underlined the complexity of Israel’s security position. The October 7 attacks shattered the illusion of deterrence and exposed the scale of the Iranian proxy threat spanning from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthis, both of which intensified missile barrages and cross-border incursions. With dozens of innocent hostages still held in Gaza, Israel’s focus remains on combining military pressure with diplomatic efforts for their release, underscoring the moral and legal distinction between law-abiding states and terror organizations.
A reinvigorated U.S. leadership could provide critical diplomatic cover for ongoing IDF operations, ensure sustained military and technological support, and facilitate international efforts to hold Iran and its proxies accountable. However, the risks of escalation, civilian hardship, and humanitarian crises cannot be disregarded—necessitating a proactive American role that balances deterrence, alliance management, and regional stabilization.
Historical Context: U.S. Presidencies and Middle East Policy
Every American administration since Israel’s founding has shaped—and been shaped by—the realities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. While the U.S.-Israel relationship has grown steadily closer, conflicting priorities with European allies and shifting domestic politics have repeatedly tested the durability of American commitments. Trump’s precedent-setting moves, including the Golan Heights recognition and reversal of longstanding positions on Israeli settlements, were hailed in Jerusalem but condemned in various capitals and institutional forums, including the United Nations.
A second Trump term would further entrench a transactional, America-first approach to world affairs. Some in Israel’s security establishment welcome the anticipated robust support, while expressing concerns about unpredictability in crisis management. In the absence of sustained bipartisan consensus in Washington, abrupt policy swings can undercut strategic planning, complicate coordination with regional partners like Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states, and embolden adversaries seeking to exploit perceived gaps in Western resolve.
Abraham Accords and the Road Ahead
There is growing recognition that the Abraham Accords—arguably the Trump administration’s signature foreign policy achievement—have already transformed the strategic landscape. By forging open diplomatic, economic, and technological ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, the agreements undercut the logic of Iranian-backed rejectionist fronts and demonstrated the potential for pragmatic coexistence despite persistent ideological divides.
Projects such as energy cooperation, joint technological initiatives, and coordinated security measures have generated tangible benefits for the peoples of the region. Hopes remain high in Jerusalem that further normalization could draw Saudi Arabia and other key players closer to the Israeli camp, reinforcing a collective response to the threat posed by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and their allies.
Yet, the unresolved status of Gaza, the ongoing humanitarian crisis fueled by Hamas’s tactics of embedding operatives in civilian areas, and continued disinformation campaigns by anti-Israel actors complicate efforts at durable peace. Any future U.S. administration will face the dual challenge of consolidating the Abraham Accords while providing a credible roadmap for demilitarizing Gaza and restoring a stable, accountable governance framework.
Domestic Challenges in America: Polarization, Legitimacy, and Global Leadership
Within the United States, the prospect of a Trump return has reignited fierce partisan debate. Critics cite his background of institutional disruption, efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and frequent confrontational style with U.S. allies as reasons his second presidency would be “the worst in American history,” a view echoed by left-leaning publications like The Guardian. Supporters counter that Trump’s determination to prioritize American and Israeli security, challenge the Iranian regime, and oppose radical Islamism marks a bold corrective to previous administration policies.
The result is a highly polarized environment, in which bipartisan support for Israel’s security is no longer guaranteed. Grassroots antisemitism, campus unrest, and the co-opting of Middle Eastern struggles by radical actors threaten to undermine America’s historical moral clarity. The next White House occupant’s credibility on the world stage—particularly in matters of collective defense and democratic values—will affect not only the Middle East but also the viability of the liberal international order.
Conclusion: High Stakes, Uncertain Outcomes
As Israel defends its population from a war imposed by an Iranian-led terror axis, the American political landscape looms as a decisive factor. A second Trump presidency could deepen security coordination and diplomatic support for Israel’s right to self-defense. At the same time, inconsistencies and unpredictability in Washington may sow confusion among friends and foes alike.
What is clear is that the stakes, for Israel and its regional partners, have never been higher. Whether Trump returns to the White House or not, the essential issues—countering Iranian aggression, upholding the legacy of the Abraham Accords, resolving the Gaza hostage crisis, and ensuring the security of Israel’s citizens—will demand principled leadership, moral conviction, and an unwavering commitment to truth.
This is a historic moment that will shape the future of the region for years to come. Israel, as a sovereign democracy and key American ally, will continue to rely on the strength of its partnership with the United States—regardless of which administration leads in Washington. But the manner in which the next president confronts the menace of state-sponsored terror, upholds the lessons of October 7th, and defends the values of civilization itself will determine the legitimacy and moral clarity of the entire free world.
