A massive prospective United States arms agreement with Saudi Arabia, estimated at up to $142 billion, is intensifying Washington’s longstanding balancing act regarding security partnerships in the Middle East. As Riyadh seeks to purchase advanced weaponry, the United States faces competing priorities: deepening strategic ties with the Gulf monarchy while steadfastly maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), a foundational principle of American defense policy in the region. The QME doctrine, codified into US law and reaffirmed across successive administrations, requires the United States to ensure that Israel retains a technological and operational advantage over any regional adversaries. That statutory guaranty guides not just the quantity and type of arms sold to other Middle Eastern nations but also the integration of advanced weapons technology and defense systems.
The Saudi wish list for American-made military equipment reportedly encompasses modern air defense systems, precision ordinance, and, most contentiously, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet. To date, Israel remains the only Middle Eastern country to operate the F-35, known in Israel as the F-35I Adir, after extensive modifications specifically tailored to the unique security requirements of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Israeli and American officials have consistently underscored that granting access to such high-end platforms is conditional upon a comprehensive assessment of their impact on the regional balance of power and Israel’s ability to defend itself from existential threats. As a result, authoritative briefings from the US Department of Defense, as well as official statements from the offices of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, indicate that any future deal with Riyadh will stop short of transferring fifth-generation combat aircraft or comparably sensitive technologies to the Saudi arsenal.
This policy stance is shaped by recent strategic realities. The Iranian regime’s campaign to build and equip a regional network of armed groups—ranging from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and Iranian-aligned militias in Syria and Iraq—continues to pose a grave and direct threat to Israel’s survival and to regional stability. The October 7, 2023, atrocities perpetrated by Hamas, in which Israeli civilians were targeted for mass murder, kidnapping, rape, and mutilation, underscore the persistent danger posed by Iranian-backed terror groups and reinforce the necessity of overwhelming defensive and offensive capabilities for Israel. American officials in both political branches have repeatedly tied the rationale for Israel’s QME to the need for reliable deterrence, rapid response capacity, and the ability to independently counter coalition or proxy threats across multiple fronts.
Saudi Arabia’s overtures for advanced arms come in the context of a broader security and diplomatic realignment in the region, marked by the Abraham Accords, ongoing exploratory talks regarding normalization with Israel, and sustained efforts to contain Iranian influence. Riyadh’s public stance has positioned enhanced defense ties with the United States as both a deterrent against Tehran and a demonstration of its intention to modernize its military under the Vision 2030 framework led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Yet, US arms sales policy toward Saudi Arabia remains circumscribed by the unpredictability of regional dynamics and the risk of destabilizing technological parity.
The process for US foreign military sales includes multiple layers of scrutiny. Any significant transfer of arms to Saudi Arabia must be assessed for its impact on Israel’s QME, guided by intelligence evaluations and technical risk analyses. The US Congress exercises oversight authority, holding the power to suspend or block sales deemed inimical to the strategic interests of Israel or the United States. Both the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees have frequently cited the QME requirement as inviolable, with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle warning that the introduction of advanced aircraft or comparable systems into Saudi service absent parallel upgrades for Israel would violate American legal and moral obligations.
Historically, US arms sales in the Middle East have been accompanied by offsets, wherein Israel received direct qualitative upgrades to ensure its continued superiority. The F-15 and F-16 deals of the 1970s and 1980s set a precedent, with Israel receiving enhanced aircraft and modifications even as weapons packages were extended to Arab partners. The introduction of the F-35—first delivered to Israel in 2016—solidified Jerusalem’s position as America’s principal strategic ally in the region, with uniquely customized features and ongoing operational support.
Against this backdrop, the Trump administration offered Riyadh what would become the largest single arms package in American history. However, both administration officials and bipartisan Congressional leaders made clear that the transfer of F-35s or other top-tier military assets would remain off-limits absent changes in the region’s security architecture and Israeli acquiescence. President Trump repeatedly cited the imperative of Israel’s self-defense in public briefings. The Biden administration, while reassessing the specifics of US-Saudi relations, has likewise reiterated support for Israel’s QME and has required new rounds of interagency and congressional review for any forthcoming major military sales in the region.
Regional deterrence is further complicated by Iran’s multifaceted threat network—the so-called “axis of resistance”—that encircles Israel and U.S. partners. Hezbollah’s rocket stockpiles, the Houthi militia’s drone attacks on shipping, and the constant flow of Iranian arms and funding across the region have required a persistent American-Israeli partnership in intelligence sharing, joint training, and the development of missile defense technologies such as the Iron Dome and David’s Sling. Israeli officials point to these challenges in cautioning that military parity—especially in espionage-resistant, next-generation systems—risks undermining the state’s ability to prevent and defeat coordinated attacks.
The lasting trauma of the October 7th massacre seared into Israeli and American security planning a renewed awareness of the deadly consequences of strategic surprise and the necessity of qualitative overmatch. The ironclad nature of the American commitment, both in legal statute and in the rhythm of defense consultations, is regarded as a central pillar of stability not only in Israel but across the Western alliance in the Middle East.
Within this highly sensitive context, US officials have consistently stated that while upgrading Saudi defense capabilities contributes to shared counter-Iran objectives, those upgrades will unequivocally stop short of undermining Israel’s technological lead. Israeli government statements, reflected in multiple international press briefings and in official channels to Washington, have reinforced this red line. The current legislative framework—enforced by mandated QME certifications and congressional review—remains robust in both letter and practice.
Beyond strategic hardware, the United States and Israel maintain the region’s most advanced intelligence-sharing apparatus, cyber defense collaboration, and missile defense integration. These relationships confer on Israel a multi-dimensional edge that is not easily replicated, further differentiating it from even the closest US Arab partners. American and Israeli officials have repeatedly affirmed that strategic alignment and shared values—not transient regional interests—underscore the enduring alliance.
As the Biden administration and Congress consider the trajectories of regional security, Israeli officials remain vigilant, holding the position that any erosion of the QME would represent a fundamental breach of trust and a danger not only to Israel but to American interests globally. As the campaign to contain Iranian aggression continues and as Israel faces multi-front threats from terror organizations operating under Iran’s sponsorship, the US–Israel partnership remains at the heart of Western security architecture in the Middle East.
In summary, while Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of advanced American weaponry is indicative of shifting regional dynamics and shared interests in pushing back against Iranian expansionism, the United States is firm in its unwavering promise to ensure Israel’s strategic supremacy. The exclusion of F-35 combat aircraft from the proposed arms package and continuing robust congressional oversight reflect this priority. With the future security landscape of the region in flux, America’s unique alliance with Israel—and its legal, moral, and strategic pledge to safeguard the Israeli advantage—continues to stand as the bulwark of stability, deterrence, and Western values in the face of unrelenting threats.
